Age-Period -Cohort Flashcards
What is the APC problem?
The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) problem, also known as the “identification problem,” refers to the statistical challenge of disentangling the effects of age, period, and cohort when analyzing trends or outcomes in a population. It arises due to the mathematical interdependence between these three factors, making it difficult to isolate their individual effects.
how to address the APC-problem
Control for period?
does not work, one variable will be omitted, if we know age and cohort, we automatically know also period → Identification problem (we need some variance but in that case when age and cohort are fixed there is none)
What is an age effect?
What is a period effect?
What is a cohort effect?
How can divorce be seen as an age, period and cohort effect?
Age Effect: how divorce rates vary among different age groups, i.e. young couples may have a higher risk of divorce due to factors like immaturity, financial instability, or difficulties in navigating the challenges of early marriage. On the other hand, older couples may have a higher risk of divorce due to factors such as empty nest syndrome, midlife crises, or changing priorities + divorce as individual decline of relationship
Period Effect: captures the influence of external factors that impact divorce rates at a specific point in time (interval). These factors can include changes in social norms, legal policies, economic conditions, and cultural attitudes toward divorce. For example, changes in divorce laws, increased social acceptance of divorce, or economic recessions affecting financial stability can lead to fluctuations in divorce rates across the population → 70s drop due to policy
Cohort Effect: The cohort effect focuses on how divorce rates differ among specific birth cohorts or generations. It examines how the experiences, values, and socialization processes of different cohorts influence their propensity to divorce. Cohort effects can be shaped by historical events, cultural shifts, changing gender roles, and attitudes towards marriage and family. For example, cohorts that experienced higher divorce rates during their formative years may be more likely to divorce later in life due to the normalization and social learning of divorce as an option → divorce getting more and more common from cohort to cohort
Solutions to APC-problem
