Administration & Statistics Flashcards
What is the incidence?
Number of new cases within a specific time period (usually 1 year)
What is the prevalence?
Proportion of the population with a certain condition at any given time
How can prevalence be calculated?
Prevalence = Number of existing cases / total population
What is the standard deviation?
Measure of dispersion for a subject data set from the mean
What does a high standard deviation mean?
The value is far from the mean of the group
What is the standard error of the mean?
How far a sample mean is likely to be from the population mean
How can standard error of the mean be calculated?
SD of multiple different data set means
SEM = SD / (square root of sample size)
What is the power of a study?
The ability of a study to detect a statistically significant result
How can the power of a study be defined in relation to the hypothesis of the study?
Power is the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis if it is false
What is the null hypothesis?
Theory at start of a study that states there is no difference between current method and new proposed method
What is the alternative hypothesis?
Theory at start of a study that states there is a difference between current method and new proposed method
How can the power be calculated?
Power = 1 - (probability of a type 2 error)
How can the power of a study be increased?
Increasing the sample size or reducing the p value
What is the p value of a study?
The probability of getting the results that have been found if the null hypothesis is true
What value is usually ascribed to p?
<0.05
What does a p value of 0.05 mean?
There is 95% chance that the given results did not occur by chance
What are the names given to the normal distribution curve?
Bell curve or Gaussian curve
Where does the normal distribution curve occur?
In many natural phenomenon e.g. if you plotted the heights of all the people in a room
What is plotted along the x axis of the normal distribution curve?
Z score
What is the z score along x axis of normal distribution curve?
The standard deviations from the average
How can the mean, median, and mode be calculated from a normal distribution curve?
They are all the same and will occur at the zero line in the centre of the curve
In the normal distribution curve, what percentage of the results will lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean?
68%
In the normal distribution curve, what percentage of the results will lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean?
95%
In the normal distribution curve, what percentage of the results will lie within 3 standard deviations of the mean?
> 99%
How can the normal distribution curve be skewed?
Positively or negatively
What does a positively skewed distribution curve look like?
More of the data lies on the positive side of the graph, peak is moved to the left with long tail of data to right/positive side
What happens to the averages on a positively skewed distribution curve?
The mean > median > mode
What does a negatively skewed distribution curve look like?
More of the data lies on the negative side of the graph, peak is moved to the right with long tail of data to left/negative side
What happens to the averages on a negatively skewed distribution curve?
The mean < median < mode
What is a type 1 error?
Detection of an effect that is not present
i.e. rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true
What is a type 2 error?
Failing to detect an effect that is present
i.e. not rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false
What does lead time bias apply to mostly?
Screening tests
What is the term for overestimation of survival due to earlier detection of a disease by screening than by clinical presentation?
Lead time bias
What is the term for overestimation of survival due to relative excess of cases detected that are progressing slowly?
Length time bias
What is the name of the effect whereby subjects of a study alter their behaviour due to awareness that they are being observed?
Hawthorne effect
How does sampling bias occur?
Not selecting a truly random sample which is representative of the larger population
What is recall bias?
Differences in accuracy or completeness of recall of past events or experiences
Why is recall bias most commonly seen in case control studies?
They are often retrospective and rely on people memories
What is this an example of:
Patients with lung cancer when asked about smoking history are more likely to give an accurate history than those who have not had lung cancer
Recall bias
What is the Pygmalion effect?
Aka Rosenthal effect
Phenomenon whereby the expectations of a target person affect the performance of that person
What is an example of the Pygmalion effect?
Teachers belief in a student and high expectations lead to a student achieving a better outcome
What is the name of the bias that occurs from data gathering at an inappropriate time?
Late look bias
What is the lowest rung on the pyramid of evidence?
Editorials or expert opinion
Where do case reports and case series rank on the pyramid of evidence?
Just above expert opinion
What are the observational studies on the pyramid of evidence?
Case control studies and cohort studies
Why do case control and cohort studies lie above case reports/series on the pyramid of evidence?
Higher number of cases within a structured observational study
Which is less likely to be subject to recall bias - cohort studies or case control? Why?
Cohort studies - case control usually retrospective but cohort studies follow a group through time
Why do randomised control trials rank higher on pyramid of evidence than observational studies?
They are interventional studies with a random group of people, rather than observational which can be more susceptible to bias
What is a cohort study?
An observational study following a group of people with a characteristic in common, to observe outcomes over time
What is a case control study?
A retrospective observational study looking at a group of people with a certain outcome and a group without that outcome, and comparing a potential common causality
What is the best form of evidence/at the top of the pyramid of evidence?
Systematic reviews and meta-analysis
What is the difference between systematic reviews and meta-analysis?
Meta-analysis is a quantitative analysis of multiple RCTs to find an overall average.
Systematic reviews are a qualitative analysis of multiple RCTs to assess their quality.
What is the odds ratio?
Estimation of risk of being exposed to risk factor
What does it mean if the odds ratio is 2?
You are twice as likely to have the outcome if you were exposed to the risk factor
How is odds ratio calculated?
(exposed cases / non exposed cases) / (exposed controls / non exposed controls)
(a/c)/(b/d) which can also be written as ad/bc
What kind of study is odds ration relevant for?
Case control studies
What kind of study is relative risk relevant for?
Cohort study and Randomised Control Trial
What is the relative risk?
Ratio of probability of an event occurring in an exposed group to probability of event occurring in non-exposed group
How is relative risk calculated?
(exposed cases/(exposed cases + exposed disease free)) / (non exposed cases/(non exposed cases + disease free non exposed cases)
i.e. (a/a+b)/(c/c+d)
Which type of study is absolute risk relevant to?
Randomised Control Trials
What is absolute risk?
A persons risk of developing a disease
What are some examples of absolute risk calculations used in every day practice?
Q risk
CHADSVASC
Frax score
What is numbers needed to treat?
The number of people who need a particular intervention in order for 1 person to benefit or to prevent an adverse event in one person
How is numbers needed to treat calculated?
NNT = 1 / Absolute Risk Reduction
What is the name of the graph that shows meta-analysis of RCTs?
Forest Plot
What does a Forest plot allow us to see easily for meta-analysis?
Shows effect size of each study, precision of each study, and overall combined effect
What does box size indicate on a forest plot?
The size of contribution to overall effect
i.e. the larger the box, the larger the contribution
What do the horizontal lines from the box indicate on a forest plot?
Confidence interval
What is the line of no effect?
The line on a forest plot at odds ratio/risk ratio of 1
What does a confidence interval on the right of/crossing the RR=1 line mean?
There is potential for increased risk therefore the result is not statistically significant
What does a long line through the box mean on a forest plot?
The longer the line, the wider the confidence interval, the less precise the study is.
What graph can show if there is publication bias in a study?
Funnel plot
Describe how a funnel plot appears?
Scatter plot of treatment effect vs study precision. If the study falls within the funnel shaped bounds, publication bias is unlikely to be present
What are the 5 measures of Screening Test Validity?
- Sensitivity
- Specificity
- Positive Predictive Value
- Negative Predictive Value
- Likelihood Ratio
What is the term for the proportion of true positives successfully identified by a test?
Sensitivity
What is the term for the proportion of true negatives successfully identified by a test?
Specificity
How is sensitivity calculated?
= true positives / (true positives + false negatives)
How is specificity calculated?
= true negatives / (true negatives + false positives)
What is the term used to describe the likelihood of having a disease given a positive result?
Positive predictive value
How is positive predictive value calculated?
= true positives / (true positives + false positives)