Adaptation of Planktonic Ecosystems to Climate Change

Question 1

What is the range of natural variability of CO2 over the last 800 000 years

Answer 1

180-300ppm

Question 2

How have annual fossil fuel emmisions changed between 2000-09?

Answer 2

+3.4%/yr

Question 3

What is the share of global emissions in 2015?

Answer 3

Coal (41%), Oil (34%), Cement (6%), flaring (1%)

Question 4

What is the year-to-date globally averaged land and sea surface temperature?

Answer 4

Land: +1.48°
Sea: +0.77°

Question 5

How has sea level changed in the last 300 years?

Answer 5

Increased by ~0.2m

Question 6

What are the dominant physical changes expected in the oceans?

Answer 6

Surface layer warming (greater at higher latitudes), surface layer freshening (greater at low/high latitudes), shallowing of upper mixed layer (greater at low/high lats), increased stratification at base of mixed layer (less diffusion of oxygen downwards, nutrients upwards), changes in wind patterns/storm tracks

Question 7

What will organisms do in a changing climate?

Answer 7

Move (range shift poleward), acclimate (perform/survive outside normal range), adapt (over multiple generations through evolution of phenotypic/genetic variability, genetic mutation), die (locally, regionally, globally extinct)

Question 8

How fast are marine organisms shifting poleward?

Answer 8

190+-38km/decade (mostly coastal organisms)

Question 9

How are fish assemblages changing at fixed locations?

Answer 9

Smaller, faster growing species are becoming more dominant in warmer waters

Question 10

How is phenology changing?

Answer 10

Timing of biomass peaks of certain species is becoming earlier, concern of increasing likelihood of mismatch of predators and prey

Question 11

How does adding CO2 affect the oceans?

Answer 11

Increases acidity by increasing proportions of HCO3

Question 12

What are the effects of lower pH?

Answer 12

Threatens corals coccolithophores and pteropods (corrosive, shell dissolution), scallops and shellfish cannot survive

Question 13

What are the costs of dealing with ocean acidification?

Answer 13

To coral reefs alone over the next century are estimated to add about 10% of total costs of dealing with climate change

Question 14

How has ocean acidification affected Ωarag O2

Answer 14

Decreasing Ωarag and O2

Question 15

How will animals be stressed by increased T and CO2?

Answer 15

Decreased O2 means their respiration will cost them more energy

Question 16

How fast can organisms adapt?

Answer 16

Need to develop relationships/models linking phenotypic diversity and current environmental variability, with ability to adapt to future conditions, does adaptation of individuals species mean adaptation of ecosystem?

Question 17

What was the atmospheric concentration of CO2 before the industrial revolution?

Answer 17

~277ppm 1750

Question 18

What percent increase has global CO2 concentration increased in 2016?

Answer 18

405ppm (+46%)

Question 19

What is the most likely CO2 concentration in 2100?

Answer 19

> 1000ppm

Question 20

What is the saturation state for argonite?

Answer 20

The relative concentration of dissolved calcium and carbonate ions with dissolved calcium carbonate. A Ω=1, seawater is exactly in equilibrium or saturation with respect to aragonite (no net dissolution or precipitation)