9.2.Electoral Systems (Patterns of voting and Outcome of elections)

Question 1

Regional voting preferences - Home Counties

Answer 1

-Predominantly Conservative, far more than London
-London commuter belt, made up of AB and C1 classes
-Mostly White
-Economically prosperous

Question 2

Regional voting preferences - Industrial North of England

Answer 2

-Mostly Labour
-Higher levels of unemployment than anywhere else in the country
-Greater rates of poverty and urban decay
-Greater ethnic diversity, such as high ethnic diversity in Bradford

Question 3

Regional voting preferences - Scotland

Answer 3

-Left Wing, has traditionally been Labour, but since 2015 the SNP has dominated UK elections in Scotland
-Opposes London-centric politics and New Right politics such as Brexit
-Social and economic problems in Scotland

Question 4

Regional voting preferences - Wales

Answer 4

-A heavy Labour bias, but with strong levels of support for the Conservatives
-Industrial and urban areas like Cardiff heavily favour Labour
-Rural areas vote Conservative and sometimes Labour
-The far west of the country tends to often vote for the nationalist party Plaid Cymru

Question 5

How do they influence political participation? - Gender

Answer 5

-Gender is clearly an important issue for political parties and there have been huge efforts to appeal to women and traditionally women are believed to favour the conservatives

-In recent elections it appeared gender was not in fact, a crucial factor in determining votes as in every election since 2010, women and men have both voted in majority for the ruling party

-However, in the 2016 Brexit referendum, Men voted 55% Leave compared to Women who voted 51% Remain, 49% Leave, showing how women and men’s votes were not totally aligned

Question 6

How do they influence political participation? - Income & education

Answer 6

-There has been less partisanship and many classes consider a range of factors, this led to an increase in swing voters, due to a weaking in the class system

-This can be seen in the 2017 election where Conservatives won a majority of AB, C1 and C2 voters but Labour won a majority of DE voter. However, in the 2019 election, Conservatives won a majority of AB, C1, C2, and DE voters

-Instead of class, education is now a factor

-This can be seen in both the 2017 and 2019 election where Labour won a majority of those degree educated or higher, while Conservatives won a majority of those with lower qualifications and an absolute majority of those with no qualifications

Question 7

How do they influence political participation? - Religion

Answer 7

-In the UK, religion is not a large factor in politics as both the public and the political establishment have an unspoken agreement that politics and religion don’t mix well

-This can be seen in 2003, when Tony Blair was asked about his religious views by an interviewer, his political strategist Alistair Campbell responded by saying “We Don’t Do God”

-Even more to the point religious demographic data in elections not recorded

Question 8

How do they influence political participation? - Ethnicity

Answer 8

-Ethnicity traditionally divides votes with white voters generally more Conservative and with ethnic minorities voting for Labour

-Since the 2010 election the Conservatives have won a majority of White voters at around 48% of white people, while Labour has consistently received more of the BME vote at around 65%

-However, can be argued that the ethnic identity of each party may be slipping with the BME Prime Minister Rishi Sunak coming into power at the head of the traditionally white-voted in party

Question 9

How do they influence political participation? - Age

Answer 9

-Traditionally younger voters lean left, and older voters lean right.

-Parties tend to create policies that will favour their voters for example the conservatives will protect pensions however let university fees rise and thus younger people are less likely to vote for them

Seen in the 2017 and 2019 election where Labour was able to win a majority of voters aged 18-44 both times, compared to Conservative who won a majority of 45+ voters both times

-Therefore seen that there is a large divide within UK voting on the basis of age

Question 10

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1979 Election - Policies and Manifestos

Answer 10

Britain was in a state of mass striking action in the public and private sectors with a struggling economy. Thatcher proposed reducing income tax to promote individualism, and tougher action against the TUs but would continue to fund NHS which proved popular with the public. This resulted in a 44 seat majority

Question 11

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1997 Election - Policies and Manifestos

Answer 11

Labour introduced its “Third Way” economic policy with promises to cut NHS waiting lists, to improve youth employment and to not raise income tax. They also scrapped the policy of re-nationalising industries which proved successful as they had a majority of 179 seats

Conservative policy on Europe was divided so didn’t appear to know how to tackle whether the UK should remain or leave

Question 12

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 2017 Election - Policies and Manifestos

Answer 12

Labour- scrap tuition fees for uni, end zero-hour contracts, raise the minimum wage and pledge to build more than 1 million homes.

No impact - Conservative government proposed an unpopular policy of people paying for their at-home care if they had assets over £100,000 but they still went on to form the government so it had a limited impact.

Question 13

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1979 Election - Party leaders

Answer 13

Does not impact as Thatcher was unpopular due to her earlier actions in government such as withdrawing free school milk from children over seven in 1971. However, she managed to win the general election by focusing on the competence of the government and the need for change.

Question 14

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1997 Election - Party leaders

Answer 14

The importance of party leaders is shown as Blair was viewed as young and charismatic whereas Major was seen as a grey man - valence voting

Question 15

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 2017 Election - Party leaders

Answer 15

When the election was announced, YouGov found that 50% thought May would be the best PM, 14% thought Corbyn and 36% were undecided. Although, Corbyn’s campaign allowed him to increase Labour’s share of votes by 9.6% showing opposition leaders can be successful.

Question 16

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1979 Election - Perceived competence of the parties

Answer 16

Labour’s perceived competence was initially damaged by having to call an election after a lost parliamentary vote of no confidence which was followed by the Conservatives focus on the gov’s record of failing to confront TU pay claims

Question 17

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1997 Election - Perceived competence of the parties

Answer 17

Does impact the outcome of elections as internal divisions within the Conservative party over the issue of Europe meant the Conservatives appeared divided - lost the election

Labour appeared competent as the Labour party were united behind the New Labour identity.

Question 18

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 2017 Election - Perceived competence of the parties

Answer 18

Strong divisions within the Labour party resulted in them not presenting a united front due to Corbyn’s more socialist values that were associated with Old Labour rather than New Labour which was formed under Blair- suffered one of the most negative images in recent political history, Conservatives won

Question 19

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1979 Election - The campaign

Answer 19

Before the campaign began, the Conservatives focused on Labour’s record in power focusing on, its inability to control excessive Tu pay claims, bring down inflation and reduce unemployment.

The Conservatives emphasised they were a party of national unity with common sense and practical solutions to the growing power of TUs. The press covered the Conservative campaign positively reinforcing the message among voters that Thatcher would offer a fresh approach. This helped to increase the Conservative vote in a number of social groupings which had traditionally been more likely to vote Labour.

Question 20

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1997 Election - The campaign

Answer 20

The Conservative campaign kept flipping between New Labour “stealing Tory clothes” and New Labour being a dangerous facade of Old Labour which undermined the campaign as you could not argue they are dangerous and copying you at the same time - lost

Question 21

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 2017 Election - The campaign

Answer 21

Higher social media presence more posts being shared.

Used their social media to show young people how to register to vote and where to find local polling stations.

Strategic release dates- ‘dementia tax’ on social care the day before voting

Targeted 464 constituencies in the final 2 days of the election campaign. The Tories targeted 205.

By Corbyn tackling a larger audience and focusing on the youth demographic he was able to increase Labour’s voter share by 9.6% however the Conservatives still went on to win.

Question 22

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1979 Election - Role of the media

Question 23

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 1997 Election - Role of the media

Answer 23

1992 Sun newspaper - Ridiculed Kinnock as unfit to be PM and, when Major won the election, boasted ‘It’s The Sun Wot Won It’. Ruined his image-making him appear as an incompetent leader

Sun newspaper - firmly positioned itself behind Blair, commenting on his landslide victory that ‘It Was The Sun That Swung It’. Blair got on the right side of Murdoc- didn’t slander Blair’s image

Question 24

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 2017 Election - opinion polls

Answer 24

Opinion polls - Overestimated the number of votes Labour would get whereas the Conservatives were underestimated and even though they didn’t get a majority the pollsters weren’t close. This could be because of ‘shy Conservatives’ or ‘lazy Labours’

Question 25

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 2017 Election - televised debates

Answer 25

Televised debates - May was absent so Amber Rudd stepped in. This provided party leaders with the opportunity to ridicule her without her being able to respond. Made her seem weak as she lacked a reason to be absent so appeared scared and incapable of acting like a leader- could not face the other leaders- incompetent.

Question 26

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 2017 Election - newspapers

Answer 26

Newspapers - The Sun, Daily Mail and Daily Express slandered Corbyn but Labour had a 9.6% increase in votes. MP’s can use social media now. Lots of younger people voted for Lab as social media got across Corbyn’s message. The number of Newspapers in circulation has fallen dramatically since 1997 hence its influence is falling. For example, The Daily Mail since 1997-2017 has 1,717,190 less in circulation

Question 27

How much of an impact on the outcome of elections - 2017 Election - social media

Answer 27

Social media - Corbyn took part in interviews with outlets outside of the political mainstream in an attempt to reach younger audiences such as Rock Maganizes MME and Kerrang winning them the youth vote. This has resulted in all political parties now needing to use this forum in future elections rather than relying on newspapers to present them positively.

Question 28

Opinion polls are influencial

Answer 28

1992 - Suggested that support for Lab was growing at the expense of the Conservatives. Wavering voters would likely have voted Conservative out of fear maybe

Question 29

Opinion polls are not influential

Answer 29

2015 - 75 polls said 1 party was ahead of the other. 42 suggested Labour leads. None of the 92 accurately predicted the 7% lead the Conservatives would achieve.

Question 30

The press are influential

Answer 30

2015 - ‘SAVE OUR BACON’ Don’t swallow his porkies and keep him out

Question 31

The press are not influencial

Answer 31

Repeat the 2017 case study

Question 32

TV is influential

Answer 32

2010 leader’s debate - Clegg was given an equal footing with Cameron and Brown. Both admitted “I agree with Nick” boosting the Lib Dem campaign. Charisma made it seem like he deeply cared about the issue discussed. Had genuine challenges for the other party leaders- knew what their manifesto didn’t explain (budget). Drew a comparison to Blair

Question 33

TV is not influential

Answer 33

2015 leader’s debate - During the 7 party leaders debate, Farage used this event to boost UKIP’s support amongst ‘left-behind’ working-class voters. He was unafraid to call the politicians out for where their priorities are. His message was clear and straight to the point - the other parties were identical. He had a clear goal of having more seats as knew the government was unrealistic = not successful as they got 1 seat but did get 13% of the vote

Question 34

Socal media/ new media is influential

Answer 34

Repeat the 2017 case study

Question 35

Social media/ new media is not influential

Answer 35

2019 - Labour had 4 of the 5 most liked tweets by political parties, many of the top interactions on Facebook posts as well as being dominant on Instagram. However, the Conservatives won an 80-seat majority.