9. Climate Change Flashcards
3 flexibility subcomponents –> more adaptive mgmt
- information flexibility
proactive monitoring, updating of measured/modeled system performance
–>adapting to new info - operational flexibility
physical changes in operations (based on monitoring info), redundancy, financial instruments to cover potential losses
–>being able to respond - design flexibility
explicit design decisions upfront allowing for later addition of capacities/features
–> flexible design from the start
3 factors affecting how CC considered in EIA
- framing conditions: legislation, guidance, regulation, standards, procedural/methodological support
–> need right tools - data/info:
CC scenarios, impact models, downscaling at multiple spatial levels
–> need right inputs - EIA stakeholders capacities:
NGOs, agencies, proponents, consultants, …include knowledge of cc impacts, values, responsibilities
–> need right people
CC and EIA practice challenges
- capacity building
- uncertainty (who responsible identify impacts + develop measures to deal with them)
- climate projections known??
important at regional and local levels
tension between uncertainties and the application of regulatory and standards-based processes = barrier to dealing with CC through EIA
policy objective in adding CC to EIA
Reduction options of GHGs should be identified
and acted on at all phases of a project’s lifecycle,
including context setting (policies, plans and
programmes), project planning, construction
and operation phases (depending on project
type), and decommissioning and abandonment.
challenge of such policy
OK, but what if the project’s outputs/purpose
contribute to CC?
no political appetite to reject projects because contribute to CC
what is meant:
contributions of project to GHGs = project impacts - project purpose
–> mitigating GHG contribution focused on operational qualities
5 part framework for adaptation options to reduce/mitigate effects of CC on project + project on enviro.
- do-nothing approach
- bolster exisiting designs (safety factors)
- variability mgmt (conservation)
- project reconceptualization
- adaptive mgmt
The EU Climate Adaptation Platform (2015) describes adaptive management as an approach that “can be modified to achieve
better performance as one learns more about the issues at hand
and how the future is unfolding…[such that] ….
learning,
experimenting and evaluation…are actively planned for in
decision-making”.
- do-nothing approach
Assume the project design is not influenced by climate change
considerations.
–>inability to reasonably
characterize potentially consequential climate change scenarios
–>strong evidence that substantial and/or relevant climate
change effects will not occur within the lifetime of the project.
- Bolster existing designs
Applying an “adaptation safety factor”. In engineering
design
for larger than normal loads using“ safety factors”;
helps protect
against system failure; (when uncertainty is tough to characterize or quantify)
- variability mgmt
acknowledge the fact that climate change is expected to increase
climate variability.
use design and/or operational measures to
increase the capacity of the project to accommodate increased variability.
–>more frequent prolonged heat waves are likely to cause future
increases in the variability of electric power demands, so we add extra
peak generating capacity to a power project to help.
- project reconceptualization
Reconceiving the way in which a project is planned, built and/or
operated
using novel or unusual approaches/technologies.
(Going further that variability management)
–>green roofs >electrical air conditioning =
provide cooler temperatures in buildings.
–>Changing the power source for operating the project.
- adaptive mgmt
“Wait and see approach” to dealing with the uncertainties about climate
change; but it’s intended be a structured approach to “learning by doing”
How CC integrated in scoping
- identify enviro. and project components, VECs affected by CC
(for each phase of the project direclty/indirectly)
Will climate change impacts affect a project’s parts
differently, and what are the potential
consequences of CC effects on VECs? - Identify level of detail for assessing effects
–> preliminary vulnerability assessments
- Evaluate effects of CC on need/justification for project
- What about any implications for project alternatives?
- some types of project more vulnerable to CC than others?
How CC integrated in assessing impacts
- Adjust future baselines for CC
for all project stages, for each VEC could be mod.-high affected by CC - Assess effects of project
estimate composition, magnitude, intensity of GHG emissions for each relevant proposal phase (life-cycle approach)
–> should be evaluated against gov./industry best practices - Assess effects of CC on project
EIA should assess effect relative to baseline condition under CC (different CC scenarios)
More vulnerable project components?
–> degree to which elements
of the natural, social, and economic systems related to the proposal are
vulnerable to or at risk from climate change should be assessed. vulnerabilities due to changes in average and extreme climate
conditions in the short and long term under different climate change
scenarios.
Throughout the EA process….
“Estimates and assumptions should be
accompanied by a characterization of
.(2)..in
the estimate.”
uncertainty and level of confidence
