9. Climate Change Flashcards
3 flexibility subcomponents –> more adaptive mgmt
- information flexibility
proactive monitoring, updating of measured/modeled system performance
–>adapting to new info - operational flexibility
physical changes in operations (based on monitoring info), redundancy, financial instruments to cover potential losses
–>being able to respond - design flexibility
explicit design decisions upfront allowing for later addition of capacities/features
–> flexible design from the start
3 factors affecting how CC considered in EIA
- framing conditions: legislation, guidance, regulation, standards, procedural/methodological support
–> need right tools - data/info:
CC scenarios, impact models, downscaling at multiple spatial levels
–> need right inputs - EIA stakeholders capacities:
NGOs, agencies, proponents, consultants, …include knowledge of cc impacts, values, responsibilities
–> need right people
CC and EIA practice challenges
- capacity building
- uncertainty (who responsible identify impacts + develop measures to deal with them)
- climate projections known??
important at regional and local levels
tension between uncertainties and the application of regulatory and standards-based processes = barrier to dealing with CC through EIA
policy objective in adding CC to EIA
Reduction options of GHGs should be identified
and acted on at all phases of a project’s lifecycle,
including context setting (policies, plans and
programmes), project planning, construction
and operation phases (depending on project
type), and decommissioning and abandonment.
challenge of such policy
OK, but what if the project’s outputs/purpose
contribute to CC?
no political appetite to reject projects because contribute to CC
what is meant:
contributions of project to GHGs = project impacts - project purpose
–> mitigating GHG contribution focused on operational qualities
5 part framework for adaptation options to reduce/mitigate effects of CC on project + project on enviro.
- do-nothing approach
- bolster exisiting designs (safety factors)
- variability mgmt (conservation)
- project reconceptualization
- adaptive mgmt
The EU Climate Adaptation Platform (2015) describes adaptive management as an approach that “can be modified to achieve
better performance as one learns more about the issues at hand
and how the future is unfolding…[such that] ….
learning,
experimenting and evaluation…are actively planned for in
decision-making”.
- do-nothing approach
Assume the project design is not influenced by climate change
considerations.
–>inability to reasonably
characterize potentially consequential climate change scenarios
–>strong evidence that substantial and/or relevant climate
change effects will not occur within the lifetime of the project.
- Bolster existing designs
Applying an “adaptation safety factor”. In engineering
design
for larger than normal loads using“ safety factors”;
helps protect
against system failure; (when uncertainty is tough to characterize or quantify)
- variability mgmt
acknowledge the fact that climate change is expected to increase
climate variability.
use design and/or operational measures to
increase the capacity of the project to accommodate increased variability.
–>more frequent prolonged heat waves are likely to cause future
increases in the variability of electric power demands, so we add extra
peak generating capacity to a power project to help.
- project reconceptualization
Reconceiving the way in which a project is planned, built and/or
operated
using novel or unusual approaches/technologies.
(Going further that variability management)
–>green roofs >electrical air conditioning =
provide cooler temperatures in buildings.
–>Changing the power source for operating the project.
- adaptive mgmt
“Wait and see approach” to dealing with the uncertainties about climate
change; but it’s intended be a structured approach to “learning by doing”
How CC integrated in scoping
- identify enviro. and project components, VECs affected by CC
(for each phase of the project direclty/indirectly)
Will climate change impacts affect a project’s parts
differently, and what are the potential
consequences of CC effects on VECs? - Identify level of detail for assessing effects
–> preliminary vulnerability assessments
- Evaluate effects of CC on need/justification for project
- What about any implications for project alternatives?
- some types of project more vulnerable to CC than others?
How CC integrated in assessing impacts
- Adjust future baselines for CC
for all project stages, for each VEC could be mod.-high affected by CC - Assess effects of project
estimate composition, magnitude, intensity of GHG emissions for each relevant proposal phase (life-cycle approach)
–> should be evaluated against gov./industry best practices - Assess effects of CC on project
EIA should assess effect relative to baseline condition under CC (different CC scenarios)
More vulnerable project components?
–> degree to which elements
of the natural, social, and economic systems related to the proposal are
vulnerable to or at risk from climate change should be assessed. vulnerabilities due to changes in average and extreme climate
conditions in the short and long term under different climate change
scenarios.
Throughout the EA process….
“Estimates and assumptions should be
accompanied by a characterization of
.(2)..in
the estimate.”
uncertainty and level of confidence
How CC integrated in mitigating impacts
- Assess options to reduce/mitigate project effects
- Assess options to reduce/mitigate effects on projects
Need see if:
effect is likely to be worsened by CC + identify/evaluate/choose feasible options to mitigate that effect
vulnerable to CC; identify/evaluate/choose feasible options to reducing vulnerability
all should include estimate of degree to which adaptation options can reduce project vulnerability and reduce related enviro. risks
mitigation objectives: for proposal or relating to national/international/sectoral objectives
How CC integrated in follow-up
- Provide monitoring + mgmt plan
Monitor
Evaluate
Change
Manage
Adapt
–> how CC affecting baseline enviro condition?
–> project effects changing du to CC?
–> effects of CC on project?
–> effectiveness of adaptation measures implemented to address CC impacts?
–> contingency actions to address ineffective measures?
methodologies/uncertainties when considering CC future conditions
- Explain selection of methods used
- Describe uncertainties and degrees pf confidence in results
model, tool, dataset we have or need
unknowns
key assumptions
credible expertise, latest projections used
each impact/mitigation predicted based on CC should acknowledge uncertainties and degree of confidence
How do uncertainties and degrees of confidence affect
conclusions and decisions, including our choice of mitigation or
adaptation measures (think about risks).
Project-level EIA will not make much of an impact on GHG contributions, but still at project level assessment 2 things to consider:
- how CC will impact project
–> adaptation to….
+
- how project impacts CC
–> mitigation of
CC and CEs
The effects on climate change of any single proposal may appear insignificant, but may not be when added to nu-
merous other past, current and future projects.
GHG emissions should
be considered at a level (typically policy, program or plan)
that addresses the cumulative effects of groups of communities or in-
dividual projects.
–> More significant GHG reductions can be achieved hrough strategic environmental assess-
ment (SEA) processes (renewable energy generation program >assessments of individual projects alone)
Adaptation aims to put in place measures
to increase… to withstand climate change, increase…
to recover from the effects of climate change, and strengthen the ca-
pacity to adapt to climate change as it unfolds in the future
resistance
resilience
CC + equity
Consideration of different socio-cultural and socio-economic vulner-
abilities and adaptive capacities within societal groups is an important
component of IA.
ex:
gender, potentially
disproportionate adverse effects on poor populations in drought, flood
prone and coastal areas subject to potential climate change impacts
The IA should assess the interactions of mitigation and adapta-
tion consequences and measures.
Mitigation and adaptation =
different/conflicting goals, and
each can have consequences that interact in both positive and negative
ways.
Mitigation and adaptation=
potential synergies with other environmental and social concerns
that need to be addressed
Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) may be vitally important in integrating
…. to climate change into policy-making
mitigation of emissions and adaptation
How CC can be understood as 4 different issues
- Development issue;
reduce natural capital, undermines efforts to alleviate poverty - security issue;
threat to food production/water supplies - health issue;
rising temperatures, precip changes, altered coastlines influence disease spread - equity issue;
affects primarily developing countries, reduces ability of future generations to meet basic needs
preliminary vulnerability assessment:
outline the level of detail and the approach to be used in the EA to assess climate change-related effects for each project phase:
- detailed assessments for VECs and project components that may be
highly affected by or vulnerable to changing climate and weather
conditions; - less detailed assessments for VECs and project components that may
be moderately affected; and - scope out those that are considered largely resilient to changing
climate and weather conditions.
scoping challenges:
- access adequate information, studies, qualified profesionals
–> opportunity for regional/sector-specific CC impacts/vulnerabilities assessments + training
- trustworthiness and comparability of methods underlying existing climate info
–> opportunity SEAs
assessing impacts challenges:
- CC data tailored for detailed assessments (mismatch climate data available and what is perceived as necessary to conduct assessments
- Assessing uncertainties and confidence in estimates
- Communicating results to stakeholders and decision-makers
adaptation and follow-up challenges:
- Commiting to adaptations given uncertainties
–> need stricter requirements to consider alternative options/justifications for decisions - Formalizing adaptative mgmt (ensure monitoring plan happens according to plan)
- ensuring monitoring and follow-up
challenges in methodologies
- Communicating results to stakeholders/decision-makers
- Availability of good methods, models, data, and expertise to use them
