8 - Decision making

Question 1

Classical (analytical) decision making

Answer 1

Choice - choosing among concurrently available alternatives
Input-output orientation - predicting which alternative should be chosen
Comprehensiveness - a deliberate and analytical process requiring through information search for optimal performance
Formalism

Question 2

Naturalistic decision making

Answer 2

Emphasis on situation assessment prior to selecting a course of action, achieving a “satisficing” or good enough outcome rather than optimal. Precludes an exhaustive search for information prior to concluding a decision, more accurate for aviation context.

Decisions are integral to a task and required to achieve a goal (getting pax to destination), the decision maker knowledge is the basis for recognising the need for a decision to be made, assessing the type/degree of threat present, and analysing an appropriate course of action. Team members expand cognitive resources.

Question 3

Recognition primed decision making

Answer 3

Derived from NDM, describes how people use their experience in the form of patterns. Avoids extended deliberations (ADM) to come to a satisficing course of action with little conscious thought. Requires knowledge and experience, mental stimulation, and time pressure.

Question 4

What factors influence the situation assesment of aviation decision making?

Answer 4

Defining the problem, assessing;
Time - either limited or ample
Risk - high or low severity, likely or unlikely

Course of action;
- Intuitive/RPD - ‘natural’ skill based response
- Rule based - single course of action (SOPs)
- Analytical - multiple choices to select from
- Creative - no options so must create one
Execute
Review

Question 5

Decision making models, FDODAR

Answer 5

Fly the aircraft
Diagnose
Options
Decide
Assign
Review

Question 6

What can go wrong in ADM?

Answer 6

Faulty situation assessment
- cues misinterpreted, misdiagnosed, or ignored
- risk level or time available misassesed, especially when changing rapidly
- pilot unaware of risk due to lack of experience or has encountered risk previously and had a positive outcome (frequency gambling)
Faulty selection of action
- incorrect retrieval of memory item
- inappropriate rule applied, especially those that are frequently used

Lack of experience, lack of informationm lack of simulation

Question 7

Error inducing contexts

Answer 7

Organisational pressure - OTP
information quality - ambiguity (recognised or not), gradual degradation of conditions
Environmental threats/stressors - communication, high workload, detection, stress leads to people performing like they are under time pressure when they are not

Personal stress/fatigue
Cognitive limits
Goal conflicts
Lack of knowledge/experience
Cognitive biases/heuristics
Get home itis
Poor CRM

Question 8

Ill defined problems

Answer 8

Procedural management - certain cues are ominous but leave crew without clear idea of underlying issue. RPD scenarios, usually assessed for risk but treated as emergency scenario.

Creative problem solving - novel situations, low frequency events, no procedures designed to cope as it was not believed such a scenario would occur. Diagnosis typically involves causal reasoning (effect to cause), procedures must subsequently be developed by the crew. High risk or low time may require faster decision with a higher emphasis on safety, while with more time/judgement of lower risk an outcome may still be viable to continue with the flight.