7 - Elections and referendums Flashcards
Key info for FPTP
A plurality system
Whichever candidate gets the most votes win
Candidates DO NOT need a majority
Used in generals
Advantages of FPTP in terms of voting
Simple - voters simply put a cross to a candidate
Easy to understand
Disadvantages of FPTP in terms of voting
Millions of wasted votes
Encourages tactical voting
There is only one candidate per party
Turnout tends to be lower with countries who use FPTP
Advantages of FPTP in terms of constituencies
Each constituency is represented by one mp so constituents know who to contact
Disadvantages of FPTP in terms of constituencies
A majority of voters in a constituency may have voted against their representative
Voters in safe seats tend to not turn up
Election campaigns only focuses on marginal seats
In 2019 there were only 67 marginal seats
Difference in population size means some votes are worth more than others - in 2019 isle of white had 113,020 for a seat compared to na h-eileanan an iar with 21,106
Advantages of FPTP in terms of parties
FPTP tends to produce a two-party system giving voters a clear choice
Extremist parties find it hard to win seats
Disadvantages of FPTP in terms of parties
It favours parties with concentrated geographical support
Minor party’s win fewer seats - in 2015 ukip won 1 seat for 3.9m votes
Difficult for new party’s to break into politics
Minor party struggle for votes as people feel like voting for them is wasting their vote
Advantages of FPTP in terms of governments
FPTp tends to result in majority single-party governments who can pass legislation
Majority governments have a clear mandate
Governments are easily held accountable by the electorate for implementing their manifestos
Coalition and minority governments are rare
Disadvantages of FPTP in terms of governments
Exaggerates the mandate the government get - in 1997 labour got 2.5x the seats of the torys but 1.4x the votes than them
Since 2010 the rise of minor and regional party’s (SNP) have lead to smaller majority’s
UK now haas a multi-party system but a voting system for 2 parties
What is a majoritarian system
Requires a candidate to get 50% plus one vote
Not proportional so likely to result in a majority government
What is a Proportional system
Seats given in proportional to votes
More likely to get a minority government
How does age influence voter behaviour
Young people in 2019 were more likely to vote labour and people over 39 were more likely to vote conservative
In the 2016 eu referendum a majority of 18-34yr olds wanted to stay whereas over 55’s wanted to leave
Turnout of age groups in 2019 general
55% of 18-24 yr olds
more than 80% of over 75’s
How does class influence voting behaviour
Traditionally the middle/upper class voted tory and working voted labour
Since 1980’s class dealignment has started, in the 2016 eu referendum middle class voters more more likely to vote remain than working class of the same age
In the 2019 general voters of all classes were more likely to vote conservative - with skilled workers voting more conservatively too
How did education levels affect voting behaviour in the 2019 general
People with a Degree-level education voted labour
How does gender affect voting behaviour
Women are more likely to vote for party’s that favour public service’s
More likely to vote remain in eu referendum 2016
Both equally likely to turn out to vote
In the 2019 women were slightly more likely to vote labour
How does ethnicity affect voter behaviour
Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) groups ae significantly more likely to vote labour than conservative - with an approximately 64% in 2019 voting labour
How does geography affect voter behaviour
Rural english areas and southern constituencies are more likely to vote conservative
Urban areas and the south of wales is more likely to be labour
Regional parties dominate in scotland and northern ireland
What happened to the red wall in 2019
Conservatives broke it winning labour safe seats in the midlands, the north and wales
These constituency’s had voted leave in 2016 so liked Johnsons “Get brexit done”
What is rational choice theory
Assumes voters will weigh up all the political options logically and will vote for the one that bests them the most
What is issue voting
Voters prioritise one issue above all others and vote purely based on that issue
What is valence issues
issues that are universally seen as important
Voters choose a party based on this
issues are normally: Economy, Education and healtcare
What is a majoritarian voting system
Supplementary vote (SV)
Where is supplementary vote used
Elections for the mayor of London
Directly elected metro mayors
Police and Crime Commissioners
How does the supplementary vote work
A candidate needs 50% plus one vote to win
Single-member constituencies
Voters choose a 1st and 2nd choice
If no candidates win the first preferences the second come into play - all but the top 2 candidates are counted
The second preferences are added to the first preferences to produce a winner
Advantages of the Supplementary vote system
Increased legitimacy
Choice - voters can vote for a minor option with their first preference then the second can use for the frontrunner
Disadvantages of the supplementary vote system
Not proportional
Very difficult for the minor party to win
Votes for anyone but the front runners are wasted
It is possible for the winner to be elected without a majority
Can result in the “Least - worse” candidate winning
What is a proportional voting system
Single transferable vote (STV)
Where is single transferable vote used
Northern Ireland Assembly elections and scottish local council elections
How does Single transferable vote work
Large - multi member constituencies
Voters will write numbers next to candidates in order of preference
Candidates need to reach the “Droop quota” to win a seat
once a candidate gets enough votes to fill the quota their extra votes are relocated to the second preference
Process continues until all seats are filled
Advantages of the single transferable vote, voting system
Proportional
Greatest choice
Disadvantages of the single transferable vote, voting system
Coalition governments are very likely
Link between voters and constituencies are weaker
Complex voting system
Complex counting system - can take days to find results
What is a mixed voting system
Additional Member system (AMS)
Where is AMS used
Scottish and wales parliament
The london assembly
How does AMS work
The greater amount of seats are elected via FPTP - Single-member constituencies
The smaller amount is done via proportional representation - large multi-member constituencies
The proportion of the vote in the reginal proportional vote are put up next to the FPTP elected seats and these will get topped up with the other proportional votes
Advantages of AMS voting system
Much more proportional than FPTP
Voters can vote for minor parties with their regional vote without wasting it
Split-ticket voting means voters can pick one for their constituency and one for the regional vote
The relationship is the same in constituency’s between voters and electors
Disadvantages of AMS
Not perfectly proportional
Two class of representatives are elected
Voters only had one individual on he closed list
Majority parties are less likely
Relatively complex system
Examples of minor parties winning while FPTP isn’t in play
The european parliament election 2019 - The brexit party one with the lib dems in second
Political context of the 1979 general election
Followed the 1978-9 “Winter of discontent”
Labour leader callaghan faced new conservative leader Margaret Thatcher
Result of the 1979 general
Conservative win
43 seat majority
Patterns of voting behaviour in the 1979 general
Middle class more likely to vote tory , working class was voting labour
All ages above 18-24 voted were more likely to vote tory
Women slightly more likely to vote conservative
Influence of the media in the 1979 general
More media focus on leaders than before
Thatcher used television photo’s to raise her profile
The SUN newspaper went to conservatives from labour for the first time
Impact of party policies and manifesto’s in the 1979 general
The conservatives focused on the economy, lowering unemployment and preventing strikes
Conservative tax cuts and the right to buy were popular with voters
Impact of campaigns and leadership
Successful “Labour isn’t working” campaign by the conservatives on high unemployment
Thatcher was relatively unknown compared to callaghan
British people had never had a female PM before
Impact of the 1979 election on policy making
Thatchers majority allowed her to begin transforming the uk by privatisation and reducing union strikes
Thatchers polices became boulder after she won a landslide in 1983
Focused on monetary economic policy - lead to unemployment doubling by 1983
Political context of the 1997 election
Torys been in power since 1979
Major’s government tainted by sleaze
Labour had moved more centrally in 1994 when blair came in charge
Result of the 1997 election
Labour landslide
179 seat majority
Best result ever by labour
patterns of voting behaviour in the 1997 election
Made big gains in the middle class and skilled workers class
All people under 65 more likely to vote labour
Women and women equal
70% of BAME voters went labour compared to 43% of whites
Influence of the media in the 1997 general
New labour had a proactive approach to the media - new to uk politics
Tony blair met Rupert Murdoch - after the sun switched to labour instead of conservatives
Spin doctors managed labour’s interactions to make sure they where the right message
Impact of policy’s and manifestos on the 1997 general
Labour had central economic views
The third way appealed to a lot of voters
Conservatives were divided over europe and critical of devolution, the electorate wasn’t impressed either
labours 5 pledges in the 1997 election
Fast-track punishments for young offenders
Cut NHS waiting lists
To get under 25’s into work
Not to raise income tax
Cut class size
Impact of campaigns and leadership on the 1997 general
Negative campaign, with the tory slogan “New labour, New danger”
The labour slogan promised change “Because britain deserves better”
Campaigns focused on leaders
Blair was eccentric and interesting whereas blair was fucking boring
Impact of the 1997 general on policy making
Blairs majority allowed him to bring in a range of policy’s:
Devolution
HRA 1998
Removal of hereditary peers
Freedom of information act 2000
Minimum wage
Increased public spending
Political context of the 2019 general election
Johnson had been PM since july 2019 and called a snap election for december
The conservatives were a minority government with division
The last 3 elections had been very close
Result of the 2019 general
Big conservative win
80 seats majority
Regional party’s done well snp won 48 seats
Labour had its worst election since 1935 - leading to the resignation of corbyn
Patterns of voting behaviour in the 2019 general election
people over 39 and home owners more likely to vote tory
Young people, bame voters, home renters and those with a degree were voting labour
Conservatives broke labour’s red wall winning 24 safe labour seats up north
influence of the media on the 2019 general election
Right wing papers such as the sun, daily mail and express supported conservatives
Social media spending was focused on meta and youtube with labour spending 4m compared to the conservatives 900k
Johnson was criticised for avoiding a channel 4 debate on climate change
Was only Labour and the conservatives at the tv leadership debates pushing the 2 - horse race
Impact of party polices and manifestos in the 2019 general election
Conservatives focus on achieving brexit, 50,000 new nurses, money for social care and police, no income tax raise
Labour focus’s on: Renegotiated brexit deal and a 2nd referendum, NHS spending, minimum wage increase
The Lib Dems promised to rejoin the eu without a second referendum, their leader Jo Swinson lost her seat in the election
Impact of campaigns and leadership in the 2019 general election
Johnson’s repetition of “Get brexit done” was effective, and helped winning labour seats
Corbyn was seen as weak, and less appealing to the working-class, also was accused of being an anti-semite
Labour’s brexit position was criticised due to being stuck between the leave (red wall voters) and the remain (London voters) seats
Impacts on policy making from the 2019 general
Johnson “Got Brexit done” in jan 2020
Began a “Levelling up” agenda to try and keep labour seats - This included investments to decrease economic inequalities
The 2020 pandemic transformed government policy to have the highest borrowing since ww2
Johnsons majority meant the conservatives didn’t have to have an emergency coalition
Example of a landslide victory in a general
1997 labour - Biggest since ww2
Example of a discrepancy between votes and seats
2015 - Ukip got 3.9m votes but one seat
Greens won 1.1m votes and got 1 seat
SNP got 56 seats for only 1.5m votes
Example of large numbers of voters being disenfranchised by the advantage of one party
In 2015 - The SNP won 56 of the 59 seats in scotland
1.5m scots , voted for snp, around 50%
Scottish voters who didn’t vote for SNP had been effectively disfranchised
Example of an election where the outcome was greatly influenced by their leader
1997 - LABOUR
Blairs leadership was crucial
He was young, charismatic and a skilled communicator
HE made the new labour that shifted labour more central and got a lot of middle - class votes
Is the result of a referendum legally binding
NO
The 4 reasons for calling a referendum
Constitutional change
Political forces
Party or government management
The localism act 2011
Significance of referendums being held for constitutional change
Gives a mandate to the change eg devolution votes in 1997
Significance of referendums being called by political forces
Governments can be compelled to call one if nationalist parties are making ground EG - 2016 EU referendum
Significance of referendums being called by party management
PM’s can call a referendum on something splitting the party apart - In 2011 the AV referendum was done while the Lib-Dems waned change and the tory’s didn’t
Significance of referendums being called in line with the localism act 2011
Act was intended to devolve power to local governments, including an increase in local elections
Local referendums must be called over certain plans for housing development and to control council tax
Context of the 1975 European communities membership referendum
Labour PM Wilson called this referendum after the party and cabinet were split over europe
Result of the 1975 European communities membership referendum
67% of the electorate wanted to stay in the EEC
Impact of the 1975 European communities membership referendum
Britain remained in the EEC that transformed into the EU
Context of the AV referendum 2011
The coalition government called this after the conservatives wanted FPTP and the Lib-Dems wanted proportional representation
The public struggled to understand the AV system and the campaign didn’t inspire people to vote
Result of the 2011 AV referendum
68% voted to keep FPTP
only a 42% turnout
Impact of the 2011 AV referendum
FPTP was continued to be used
The low turnout and the emphatic rejection of AV means it’s unlikely future party’s will try to change the system
Context of the 2016 EU referendum
Was in the conservative manifesto
Included the referendum to stop tory voters going to UKIP
The campaigns were cross-party with Johnson and Gove leading the LEAVE campaign
Cameron and most ministers stuck with REMAIN
Result of the 2016 EU referendum
52% voted to leave
Turnout was high at 72%
Impact of the 2016 EU referendum
Cameron resigned as he didn’t want it
May became the PM but couldn’t leave the Brexit Process
The public seemed divided like never before
Didn’t leave the eu until jan 202
Positives of referendums
Enhanced direct democracy
High participation
Gives legitimacy to decisions
Been used effectively since 1998
Negatives of referendums
Governments still have the power so wont run an election if they know they will lose
Low turnout in some referendums suggests the public aren’t always engaged
Can threaten parliamentary sovereignty
Campaigns can be misleading
Aren’t legally binding
