6.2 thinking under uncertainty

Question 1

representativeness heuristic

Answer 1

A heuristic for judging the probability of membership in a category by how well an object resembles (is representative of) that category (the more representative, the more probable).

Question 2

conjunction fallacy

Answer 2

Incorrectly judging the overlap of two uncertain events to be more probable than either of the two events.

Question 3

gambler’s fallacy

Answer 3

Incorrectly believing that a chance process is
self-correcting in that an event that has not occurred for a while is more likely to occur.

Question 4

availability heuristic

Answer 4

A heuristic for judging the probability of an event by how available examples of the event are in memory (the more available, the more probable).

Question 5

confirmation bias

Answer 5

The tendency to seek evidence that confirms one’s beliefs.

Question 6

illusory correlation

Answer 6

The erroneous belief that two variables are statistically related when they actually are not.

Question 7

belief perseverance

Answer 7

The tendency to cling to one’s beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence.

Question 8

person-who reasoning

Answer 8

Questioning a
well-established research finding because one knows a person who violates the finding.