4.1) Implications and options. Exploring scenarios using different strategy tools Flashcards
The internal and external world
Implications of the scenarios
- Implications of each scenario (in general and for the strategic focus)
- Any common implications across all scenarios?
- Any categories of implications emerging? (across two or more scenarios)
- General implications or categories of implications?
- Common lines between the scenarios?
- Threats and opportunities
Assessing the implications
Examples: Implications for the company
Options
Analyse the firm’s current position, cosnidering that different scenarios are plausible in the long term
- Which options should we take?
- Which options can we take?
- Which projects should we/can we implement?
- Any common options across all scenarios?
- clsuter these and see if they start to a form a set of options/actions - an emergent strategy
- Considering our strengths and weaknesses >> continuation of the link to the SWOT analysis
How well do our current strategies stand up to each scenario?
Strategic responses
Scenarios and Internal Factors of Competitiveness (IFCs)
Scenarios and the Ansoff matrix
- ansoff and scenario planning = complementary
- Ansoff can be used to identify alternative entry-market strategies
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scenarios can be used to
- scan the environment
- explore plausible and relevant futures
- identify key market drivers
- then use the Ansoff matrix to develop and test product and market alternatives for each identified scenario
- can be a creative way to develop all product-market alternatives and then combine it with plausible market scenarios
Business Model Canvas
a shared language for describing, visualizing, assessing, and changing business models
- BMC = one-page template for describing a new or documenting an exisiting business model
- flexible model to describe the key elements
- tool resembles a painter’s canvas
- works best when printed out on a large surface so groups of people can jointly start sketching and discussing business model elements with post-its and board markers
- hands on tool that fosters understanding, discussion, creativity, and analysis
Business model canvas -> scenarios
Scenarios render the abstract tangible
- goal of combining scenarios with BM - help organization prepare for the future
- forces reflection on how a business model might have to evolve under certain conditions
- sharpens understanding of model and of potentially necessary adaptions
Phase V: Monitor
Identify srt or precursor/early indicators
-> they might indicate that some implications are becoming more relevant and that some uncertainties configurations might become more plausible
Early indicators
- objective and subjective elements
- scanning exercise
- where to look?
- trends and small (and large) signs of potentially great change
- look back at scenarios and elements that support them (e.g., kex uncertainties)
The use of forecasts in foresighting
How has our thinking changed
Knowing and acting
