1.1) The concept of foresight. Forecasting vs. foresight. Scenarios as the main foresight tool.

Question 1

Foresight definitions

Answer 1

• a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint action
• all efforts to organize anticipation within a society, network or organization

Question 2

The “Futures Cone”

Answer 2

• future = cone of possibilities that gets broader and mor diffuse
• future = possibilities associated with the present - we don’t have all information about the possibilities
• -> uncertainty is the raw material for foresight

Question 3

Forecast vs. Scenario thinking

Answer 3

• Forecast
  
  • 1 future based assumption
  • linear projection
  • uncertainty is implicit
• Scenarios
  
  • multiple future that challenge assumptiond
  • multiple development
  • uncertainty is explicit

Question 4

Forecasting vs. scenario planning (time focus)

Answer 4

Foresight can and should use forecasts but must not be mistaken for Forecasting

Question 5

Forecasting vs. Foresight (forecasting)

Answer 5

Forecasting

• focus on certainties - hides uncertainties
• generates linear projection on a single point
• favours continuities
• gives primacy to quantitive over qualitative
• hides the risks
• starts from simple to complex
• usually adopts a partial approach

Question 6

Forecasting vs. Foresight (foresight)

Answer 6

Foresight

• focus on uncertainties
• generates several but logical pictures of the future
• takes disruptions into consideration
• unites quantitative and qualitative
• underlines risks
• starts from complex to simple
• adopts a global approach

Question 7

Scenario definitions

Answer 7

• a set of hypothetical events set in the future constructed to clarify a possible chain of casual events as well as their decision points
• Narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out
• Scenarios are not predictions, but ways of illuminating possible futures. Scenarios (…) are provisional knowledge
• Scenarios are tools for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which today’s decisions might be played out

Question 8

Scenarios

Answer 8

• uncertainty as its raw material
• hypothetical nature
• narratives; stories
• descriptions of alternative futures
• causality; ‘final images vs. pathways’
• consistency, internal coherence and plausibility
• ‘Reperceiving the future’; perceptions; facing & changing mental models
• decisions (making & process)

Question 9

Visions

Answer 9

• image of desirable futures which inspire people to action
• can also inculde descriptions of the development towards desirable futures
• role of visions = leverage change by targeting potential change and/or mobilising resources

Question 10

Scenarios vs. visions

Answer 10

Scenario domain

Factors ‘not-subject to influence’, given factors + Factors ‘subject to influence’

Vision domain

Factors ‘subject to influence’ + ‘Controllable factors’

Question 11

Strategic focal issue

Answer 11

• the issue or question that will guide your scenario thinking and building process
• as objective as possible - examples:
  
  • decision -> ‘digital’ - on/off - go/no-go (e.g, investing or not investing)
  • strategic development/test a possible strategic decision -> shall we get smaller? where should we invest?
  • rethinking the core business -> ‘so far we have been successful, will we continue like this?’
  • exploratory (usually a broader focal issue) -> learning and sharing process and results; the future of maket/strategic context
• supporting questions
• creates platform for discoveries and explorations
• allows to ‘anchor’ the discussions and questions
• can be specific -> decision and strategic development
• can be broad -> exploration (challenges), sensemaking, alignment, visioning and multi-stakeholder mobilization
• make it specific enough for the relevant to emerge, but at the same time it should be broad enough to create a platform for discoveries and exploration

Question 12

Time horizon

Answer 12

• is negotiable
• consider the long-term as the sufficient time period for changes in historical relations and trends
• not too distant in time so one can still think strategically about the future and build scenarios
• not so close to the present in order to avoid simple and too conservative projection of past and present structures and drivers
• ideal time horizon = ‘horizon of ruptures’
  
  • not always identifiable
  • in certain situations there is a succession of micro-ruptures that could lead to a new dynamic
• can be close -> rigour, detail
• can be distant -> diffuse, general

Question 13

Phase 1: Framing and scoping

Answer 13

• Strategic focal issue
• Time horizon
• process involves deepening the challenges that the organization faces
• as well as discussing the assumptions, widespread ideas, or dominant mental models within the organization