3.1) Scenario Planning Approaches Flashcards
1
Q
Scenarios Typology
A
depend on your purpose in using scenarios to explore the future and organisation’s degree of foresight readiness
- Inductive scenarios (or bottom-up) - emerge from discussion and exploration of drivers and trends
- Deductive scenarios (or top-down) - choose two or more of those drivers to structure scenario worlds
- Incremental scenarios - are similar to the official future but different enough to move in a different direction
- Normative scenarios (visioning) - these are the futures that we believe ‘should’ happen
2
Q
The Incremental Approach
A
- start by articulating the official future (the one you are planning for) and exploring what must be true for thos future to be realized
- then: how could we be wrong about the official future?
- next: develop at least two stories of the future that diverge from the official future (provocative and plausible)
somewhat conservative
3
Q
The Inductive Approach
A
- Develop several stories
- study, refine and deepen them until you arrive at a set of divergent, plausible, and challenging scenarios that are relevant to your focal question
- often while developing we can identify and underlying structural framework (e.g., a matrix)
- identifiying a framework that highlights relationships between scenarios can be helpful when communicating the scenario set
4
Q
The Deductive Approach
A
- picture 2 critical uncertainties on axes that frame the poles of what seems possible in the time frame
- try different combinations
- cross two axes and create framework to explore four possible scenarios
- Settling on a scenario framework is trial-and-error
- 4 quadrants / 4 scenarios
- in each quadrants: key ideas/possible and contrasting stories
- does the set of scenarios “illuminates” the strategic focus