4.1 factors affecting voting behaviour Flashcards
AGE - Millennials are 15 points less conservative than the national average which breaks the rule that
the older you get the more conservative you get
AGE -
Ipsos MORI (2017): 62% of voters at age 18-24 voted for Labour (27% voted for Tories whilst
69% of 65+ voters voted for Conservatives (19% voted for Labour)
AGE - YouGov (2019): the vote preference diverge at
the age of 33
AGE - in 2019 only 21% of 18-24yr old voters voted Cons and in 2024 it was reduced to just
5%
AGE - In 2019 only 14% of 70+ voters voted Labour and in 2024 this increased to
23%
AGE - YouGov described age as the
“biggest dividing line in British Politics”
GENDER - Blair’s babes”, “Browns Sugars”, “Labour Lovelies” are examples of how the media in particular focuses on the “physical attributes of female candidates”. This could be
said to be a major problem for female candidates.
GENDER - 2019 - Nearly all parties had clear policies to address gender with the Conservatives having a commitment to tackle issues relating to violence against women including
a commitment to appoint a violence against women commissioner.
GENDER - Traditionally, women were believed to favour the Conservatives - this changed under
Blair with Labour winning a larger share of the female vote under him.
GENDER - 1997 - Blair introduced all-women shortlists to increase
the number of women in parliament.
REGION - The North is most likely to vote Labour ie
Liverpool Walton with 87% vote share to Labour MP Dan Carden - last 4 GE’s Walton’s Labour vote share hasn’t dropped below 72%.
REGION - 2019 General Election - Conservatives broke down Labour’s so called “Red Wall” in Northern England where there were/are
traditional Labour strongholds - due to Brexit and perceptions of party leadership.
REGION - 2024 General Election - Seats that went to Reform UK were coastal due to their anti-immigrant rhetoric which
instilled fear in their voters, thus manipulating them to vote reform
CLASS - Class dealignment after 1970s , people no longer identify with a
particular social class and social mobility is promoted
CLASS - 2019 Red Wall: the North which is traditionally dominated by working class (C2,DE)
had voted for Conservatives
CLASS - 1997: Blair gained votes from class
AB and floating voters (33%)
CLASS - however, this can be argued that Blair’s centrist manifesto (New Labour) attracted AB votes due to
the party disunity in Conservatives on European issues
CLASS - Ipsos MORI: 59% of class AB voted for Labour in 1997 whereas only 40% voted for Labour in 2010; only 21% of class DE voted for Conservatives in 1997 but
41% voted for Conservatives in 2019
ETHNICITY - BAME voters are more likely to vote Labour- 2019 elections 20% of BAME voters voted for Conservative, but
64% BAME voters voted Labour
ETHNICITY - However, the proportion of BAME voters in classes C2 and DE is greater than the proportion of white people in those classes, so the preference
for Labour may not be based on ethnicity, but on social class
ETHNICITY - However, in the 2024 election BAME voter share in Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats has decreased (compared with 2019) with Labour seeing the biggest loss of -18%. Whilst
the independent candidates and Greens saw the biggest growth, independents grew by 13% of the vote share.
EDUCATION - 2017 elections - 47% of voters with degrees voted labour/lib dem, 36% voted conservative , with no qualifications however
23% voted labour/libdem
53% voted conservative
EDUCATION - However, in 2019 the conservative party was the most popular party amongst all education groups - can make the argument that
in more recent times education does not greatly influence voting behaviour
MEDIA - “NoPress barrage didn’t work for Corbyn — The Sun increased negative media coverage of Corbyn (e.g. ‘Don’t chuck Britain in the Cor‘BIN’) and Daily Mail published a 15-page anti-Labour spread. But
Labour still gained 32.1% of vote share in 2017. It could be because of factors like increased votes in age 18-24 (62% of the 18-24 voters voted Labour), popularity of party leaders, etc.
MEDIA - YouGov: 74% of Daily Mail readers voted
Conservatives in 2017
MEDIA - however not every reader accepts the view of the newspaper as
26% people still didn’t vote for Conservatives
MEDIA - Press only reacts to the prevailing mood (opinion polls) of the time — “Save Brexit, Save Britain” (12 Dec 2019), opinion polls (Survation, 11 Dec 2019): 34% for Labour, 45% for Conservatives (actual vote share: 42.3% Conservatives, 32.1% Labour). This shows
that the press only reflects public preference to set up headlines and alter views
MEDIA - Opinion polls did make an impact - 2015 hung parliament
expected or close result between tories and labour (e.g. 4-6 May Survation/Daily Mirror: tie; 5-6 May Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard: Tory 1% lead; Result: 6.6% lead) - encourage voters to vote for the political party (as result is not clear), also boost the turnout)
MEDIA - Brexit referendum 2016 - opinion polls: 5 out of 6 opinion polls predicted “Remain” , leading from 0.5% to 4% leading to
bandwagon effect on people (thinking the majority is correct and will win) and increased the sense of security - decrease in active participation which led to the outcome of leaving the EU
MEDIA - “The Sun Wot Won It” - 1992 Election - predictions every year were correct - the Sun’s support and negative portrayal of Labour played a crucial role in the Conservatives’ victory, sparking debates about
media bias, impartiality, and the impact of press endorsements on voters.
MEDIA - First TV debate (2010) — Clegg’s excellent debate performance increased his high popularity (Cleggmania), supporting Lib Dem to gain a larger vote share (23%) so they formed
coalition government with Conservatives (link back to minority parties)pp
MEDIA - TV debates only improve impression of party leader: vote share of Lib Dem only increased
1% and lost seats compared to 2005
MEDIA - May’s refusal to participate in a live TV debate caused
her to further decrease her popularity
MEDIA - TV debates may not show “clear winners” in debates, e.g.
2019 Corbyn and Johnson — dull and repetitive arguments. Therefore, there is no need to appear on TV.
SOCIAL MEDIA - Labour in April 2024 appointed a dedicated employee to work with influencers in TikTok and Instagram to promote a positive image of Keir Starmer. (The Guardian, 2024) Also,
this is to attract young voters (18-24) as young people are tech-savvy and the largest proportion of the population in consumption of social media. Labour has gained 186 seats in the local election 2024. (+16%)
SOCIAL MEDIA - Conservatives won the 2019 general election despite
a halved cost of advertisements
SOCIAL MEDIA - UKIP attracted voters in 2015 to support Brexit and push Conservatives to start the 2016 EU Withdrawal Referendum
UKIP will dilute votes from
Conservatives if Tory did not take actions on Brexit
SOCILA MEDIA - Social media is an echo chamber — it requires skills to attract the algorithm and bring new opinions to different users’ pages when
they already have opinions and preferences in political parties and issues.
SOCIAL MEDIA - Labour made use of social media (viral videos) and campaigns with activists
Corbyn interjecting during Theresa May’s Facebook Live chat on ITV received 4 million views. Corbyn challenging May
to a debate reached 1.4 million people.
SOCIAL MEDIA - News reposted in social media which also presented in broadcast and digital press, e.g. BBC on Instagram and TikTok, Sky News and The Guardian on X. Therefore, the information
in social media is only a copy of the mass media.
SOCIAL MEDIA - 2019 Conservatives had 2500 live paid-for adverts (Facebook Ad library), whereas Labour only has 250, showing that Conservatives won the election partially because of
the advertisement in Facebook (arguably with a larger user population of older voters - 21% for tory in 18-24 voters, 67% for tory in 70+ voters)
SOCIAL MEDIA - Lib Dem lost 1 seat, albeit a larger amount of adverts , had
3000 adverts more than cons
+ CAMPAGIN Although some campaigns may simply reinforce existing attitudes, others may challenge them, especially if it’s a tight race. The growth of partisan dealignment suggests
that campaigns do increasingly matter as voters have become more flexible in their voting intentions
+ CAMPAIGN In 1992 John Major’s decision to abandon stage managed events and take his soap box to town centres was in marked contrast to Neil Kinnock’s over-confidence at the Sheffield rally. This changed
the dynamic of the general election, giving the conservatives an unexpected victory
+ CAMPAIGN In 2010, a strong Liberal Democrat campaign, including Nick Clegg’s impressive performance in the televised debates, significantly increased the Liberal Democrat support, mostly
at the expense of the conservatives, leading to a hung parliament and a conservative Liberal democrat coalition
+ CAMAPIGN In 2017 Jeremy Corbyn’s optimistic rallies and popular manifesto commitments such as ending tuition fees contrasted sharply with Theresa May’s uninspiring campaign appearances and the widespread unpopularity with the ‘dementia tax’. As a result
Labour drastically increased its support as the campaign progressed, from less than 30% of the vote at the beginning of the election to 40% in the general election
- CAMPAIGN According to some political commentators the influence of the campaign can be exaggerated since
voters in general have already made up their mind
- CAMPAIGN In the 1950s and 1960s the class allegiance that political parties could depend on meant that campaigns made very little difference in swaying voters. For example,
the 1955 and 1959 general election campaigns simply confirmed expected Tory victories under Anthony Eden and Harold Macmillan
- CAMPAIGN Although Harold Wilson’s dynamic presidential campaign in 1964 was supposed to make his appeal to the voters as a British John F Kennedy, in fact, Sir Alec Douglas-Home’s low key dogged earnestness proved more appealing. In the end,
Wilson increased Labour’s share of the vote by only 0.2% on Hugh Gaitskell’s lacklustre performance in 1959
- CAMPAIGN In 1970 Edward Heath’s campaign was dismissed as bland and uninspiring. Plans had been drawn up by top Conservatives to force his resignation when he lost. His victory
over Harold Wilson was completely unexpected
- CAMPAIGN Although praised by the media, Labour’s television-friendly 1987 campaign hardly dented Margaret Thatcher’s political domination and she was returned to government with a 102-seat majority. The satirical magazine Private Eye ironically commented on ‘Labour’s brilliant defeat.’ In 2019
the conservatives ran a more effective campaign by relentlessly focusing on Brexit. However, during the campaign, polling hardly changed, suggesting that many voters had already made up their minds before the campaign began.
- CAMPAIGN In 1997, Labour had a runaway lead in the polls and party workers were therefore encouraged to adopt a “sit tight and shut up” attitude to avoid any scandals that would damage Labour’s lead. This suggests
ad largely made up their minds before heading to the polls.
POLICIES AND MANIFESTOS 2019
Dubbed the ‘Brexit’ election; another referendum on Brexit
Conservative Party slogan = ‘Get Brexit Done’; key policy that helped break the Redwall (long-standing Labour safe seats)
Jeremy Corbyn = no clear plan for Brexit; ⅓ of his voting base were Brexiteers
Labour manifesto was too wordy; Conservatives opted for a very slim manifesto (different from Theresa May in 2017)
CA POLICIES AND MANIFESTOS
Corbyn was extremely unpopular due to anti-semitism scandal; ran a poor campaign
Media did not like him; Sun would villainise him (‘THE SUN SAYS If Boris Johnson wins today, a bright future begins… but if Jeremy Corbyn gets in, the lights will go out for good’)
Corbyn dubbed the ‘most dangerous man to run for high office’ by the Sun.
Johnson’s personality was well-liked; Corbyn was seen as boring
Analysis: less about policy areas (unlike 1997 election)
1997 POLCIIES AND MANIFESTOS
Labour Party had modernised to “New Labour”; and had a manifesto to reflect their modern party attitudes
Labour promised to build the economy; policies were widely embraced
Abolished ‘Clause 4’; Labour looked and felt less socialist and more ‘mainstream’ centrist
BIELECTIONS
Sunak - 13 by-elections since becoming PM in October 2022
Several produced 20%+ swings to Labour from the Conservatives (e.g. Selby, Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, Blackpool South)
