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Politics Paper 1 > 4.1 Case studies of 3 GEs > Flashcards

4.1 Case studies of 3 GEs Flashcards

1
Q

6

What are the social factors (long-term) that affect voting behaviour?

A
  • Class
  • Age
  • Region
  • Gender
  • Ethnicity
  • Education
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2
Q

5

What are the non-social factors (short-term) that affect voting behaviour?

A
  • valence issues (party/leader image)
  • salient issues
  • party manifesto and campaigns
  • tactical voting
  • opinion polls
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3
Q

2

How do social factors affect voting behaviour

A
  • ‘Political socialisation’ - upbringings and environment
  • Rationality - people more likely to vote for party that will advance their group’s interests
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4
Q

What are the social class categories?

A

A - higher managerial/professional workers (e.g. business owners, lawyers)

B - middle managers and professionals (e.g. teachers)

C1 - clerical workers (e.g. office clerks)

C2 - skilled manual (e.g. plumbers)

D - unskilled (e.g. factory workers)

E - pensioners, unemployed (e.g. job seekers)

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5
Q

4

Describe class dealigment

A
  • Process where individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class (so class ≠ voting behaviour)
  • ‘Change over time’
  • No longer reliable predictor - ‘Red Wall’ switch clearest example of this
  • Can be expressed in other ways (e.g. level of education)
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6
Q

3

What are the causes of class dealigment?

A
  • Changing class system - manual workforce decline - ‘traditional’ wc made way for new’ wc
  • Cross-class locations - decline in trade union membership and rise in home ownership
  • Embourgeoisement - affluence has meant the wc have become mc
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7
Q

1

Give statistics on the decrease in the manual workforce?

A

manual workforce shrunk from 58% in 1961 to 29% in 2013

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8
Q

6

Describe partisan dealigment

A
  • Triggered by class dealigment
  • Process where individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis by being associated with a certain political party
  • Scotland - Lab 41 seats (2010) vs SNP 56 seats (2015)
  • Fewer people strongly attached to one party
  • 1979 - 81% voted Con or Lab
  • 2010 - 65% voted Con or Lab
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9
Q

3

What are the causes of partisan dealigment

minus class dealigment

A
  • inc edu - use rational choice theory to approach policies
  • impact of media - wider sources of news (esp broadcast), less dependent on party-supporting newspapers
  • Ideological change - shift in party policy (e.g. New Lab)
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10
Q

3 (short points)

To what extent is social class important in GEs?

A

Finish

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11
Q

4

Describe the effect of age on voting behaviour

A
  • Age has replaced class as most sig factor
  • Pivotal switchover age - 39 - explained by greater financial pressures/considerations
  • Older voters more likely to turnout
  • YouGov 2019: every 10 yrs someone ages, they are 8% less likely to vote Lab
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12
Q

Give a statistic that displays higher turnouts among older voters

A

2015 GE: 43% (18-24 ), 78% (65+)

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13
Q

2

What are the reasons for age demographic-based voting

A
  • Lab policy pull to young - tuition fees 2017/2019 + progressive policies
  • Con policy pull to old - pension benefits (e.g. triple-lock) + harder on immigration
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14
Q

2

Give stats that show age-based split voting in 2017

A
  • 18-24: Con 27%
  • 65+: Con 61%
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15
Q

5

Describe the effect of region on voting behaviour

A
  • Concentrated support
  • Scotland - currently largely SNP, Con succeed in rural border areas
  • London - inner = Lab, outer = Con - affected by ethnic diversity and suburban affluence
  • Some surprise results e.g. Cambridge is a Lab area
  • N-S partisan divide somewhat diluted by 2019 red wall fall, remaining political divide over brexit
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16
Q

2 regions - 3 major parties

Give stats relating to the 2019 GE on region-based voting

A
  • NE England: Con 28%, Lab 43%, LD 7%
  • London: Con 32%, Lab 48%, LD 15%
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17
Q

Relating to 3 major parties

Describe Brexit’s effect on voting behaviour

A
  • Con support grew in strong leave areas (Red Wall), fell in strong remain areas
  • Lab support fell more in strong leave areas
  • LD support grew more in strong remain areas (revoke article 50)
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18
Q

6

Describe the effect of gender on voting behaviour

A
  • Minimal - but could still be sigificant
  • Young women voters tend to vote Lab or LD
  • Lab introduced all women shortlists
  • Decline in effect
  • 1979 - larger majority of Con over Lab for female vote than male vote
  • 2017 - closer gap between 2 major parties for female vote than male vote
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19
Q

Give a stat that shows young women are more likely to vote Lab

A

Age 18-24 (2019): 65% women voted Lab vs 46% men

Lab was most still pop in this age bracket

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20
Q

2 stats + 1 date

Give stats that show a virtually non-existent gender split in voting

A
  • 2019 election
  • Con: Men 46%, Women 44% (2pt gap)
  • Lab: Men 31%, Women 35% (4pt gap)
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21
Q

4

Describe the effect of ethnicity on voting behaviour

A
  • Significant factor
  • Immigrants, BAME tend to vote Lab (e.g. 2010 60%)
  • exceptions - Hindu communities have much larger Con support - growing wealth/aspiration
  • Jews historically tend to vote Lab - declined under Corbyn’s premiership (Luciana Berger MP left party - later rejoined)
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22
Q

Give an example of a BAME area with high Lab support

A

East Ham (76% Lab support at 2019 GE)

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23
Q

2

What are reasons for ethnic-based voting

A
  • Push from Con - current rhetoric and historic attitudes (Powell)
  • Pull to Lab - welfare policies, more black Lab MPs (e.g. David Lammy), race relations acts
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24
Q

What are the limits of ethnic-based voting?

A

There is a concentration of ethnic minority groups in urban industrial centres such as London (e.g. East Ham)

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25
Q

(…) is when voters make rational voting choices that align with their personal objectives

A

Rational Choice Theory

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26
Q

3

What are valence issues?

A
  • Valence concerns general image of party/leader
  • Closely tied to governing competency
  • Specific issues or range of issues
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27
Q

4

What are the dfferent types of valence issues? (with examples)

A
  • Governing competency (e.g. Con defeat in 1997 with ‘cash for questions’)
  • Economic competence (e.g. 2019 lab spending plans - £1.2trn)
  • Party unity - voters trust united parties but not disunited ones (e.g. Con defeats in 2001 and 2005 partly due to divisions over Europe)
  • Image of leaders (e.g. Clegg failure in 2015)
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28
Q

2

Describe salient issues

A
  • Important issues relevant to specific election
  • Shape election campaigns (e.g. ‘Get Brexit Done’)
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29
Q

3

Why is leader image becoming more influential?

A
  • Rise in ‘presidentialism’
  • Monopilisation of media focus
  • Greater say over policy (e.g. 2022 Lab conference PR)
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30
Q

5

What are the different parts of leader image

A
  • experience
  • personality
  • perceived charisma
  • ideology
  • ‘anti-establishment’ image e.g. Corbyn
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31
Q

Give a stat to explain the impact of leader image on voting behaviour

A

Survey found 43% of defected Lab voters in 2019 voted on basis of leadership

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32
Q

3Ps

Evaluate the view that party campaigning and manifestos are the most important factor behind voting behaviour

A

P1: Pop of manifesto policies - higher turnouts (e.g. ‘youthquake’) vs social (ethnic) factors - policies naturally positioned to appeal to diff groups (e.g. East Ham 2019) - ‘reduces electoral volaitility’

P2: Attack ads (e.g. Sunak child sexual abuser) vs Valence issues - party/leader image (e.g. party image of Con in 1997)

P3: Unexpected campaigning events (e.g. ‘bigotgate’) vs short campaign periods of 4-6 weeks (e.g. LD 2010 - 1pc inc)

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33
Q

Give a stat that displays the 2017 ‘youthquake’

A

18-24 age group turnout jumped by 11 points in 2017 from 2015

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34
Q

Younger and ethnic voters tend to display (…) levels of disillusion and apathy

A

greater

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35
Q

3

What factors affect turnout?

A
  • Closeness of election (59% in 2001, 78% in 1992)
  • Greater differences in policy positions of major 2 parties (2017 Lab manfiesto radically diff to Con - led to youthquake)
  • Salient issues (2017 69% turnout highest since 1997)
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36
Q

2

Give some examples of tactical voting

A
  • Electoral Reform Society estimated 6.5m participated in tactical voting in 2017
  • SwapMyVote
37
Q

2

Give some examples of limits to tactical voting

A
  • LD/Green/PC remain electoral pact in 2019 failed - seat total of bloc went down by 1
  • SNP won 56/59 Scottish seats in 2015 despite attempts by opp parties to unite behind same pro-union candidates
38
Q

1

Why are big tent parties (arguably) successful?

A

Voters more interested in image and policies as opposed to social factors e.g. age, ethnicity, gender

39
Q

3

Describe the wider political context of the 1979 election

A
  • Winter of discontent (1978)
  • Shift to New Right in Con policy after economic hardships
  • Callaghan govt loses no confidence vote by one vote
40
Q

5

Describe the outcome of the 1979 election

A
  • Con won 43 seat majority
  • Conservative victory with 44% of vote
  • 5.2% swing to Con - largest since 1945
  • Lab lost 62 seats
  • HoC dominated by Lab/Con (608/635 seats) - little representation for smaller parties
41
Q

2

Describe the turnout in the 1979 election

A
  • Turnout of 76% - average for the time
  • inc of 4% from Oct 1974
42
Q

3

Describe voting behaviour in the 1979 election

A
  • Growing MC and declining WC gave Con natural advantage
  • Con support: men 43%, women 47%
  • Con won 41% of C2 vote, an inc of 20pcs from 1974
43
Q

3

Describe the valence issues of the 1979 election

A
  • Governing competency - ‘winter of discontent’ + no-confidence vote
  • Economic competence - Lab associated with high inflation
  • Party unity - Lab divided between left and right + Whitelaw
44
Q

1

Describe the salient issues of the 1979 election

A
  • Extent to which govt should regulate industry became central issue
45
Q

2

Describe the party policies and manifestos of the 1979 election

A
  • Con promise of expanded home ownership proved popular
  • Con also promised to reduce role of trade unions and control money supply (monetarism)
46
Q

2

Describe the impact of leadership in the 1979 election

A
  • Callaghan polled ahead of Thatcher
  • Thatcher embraced ‘housewife economics’
47
Q

2

Describe the impact of the campaign in the 1979 election

A
  • Lab ran poor campaign implying that Britain should not elect a woman
  • Con hired Saatchi brothers, an advertising company, that developed famous ‘Labour isn’t working’ campaign
48
Q

1

Describe the impact of the media in the 1979 election

A
  • The Sun - ‘Crisis? What Crisis?’ headline
49
Q

2

Describe the wider political context of the 1997 election

A
  • Slow and steady econ growth from 1994 onwards
  • Tory sleaze (sex and money) scandals
50
Q

2

What did Martin Bell do?

A

independent, anti-sleaze candidate Martin Bell ousted sleaze-ridden Tory MP Neil Hamilton in Tatton (took money from Mohammed Al-Fayed)

Lab/LD stood down in contest

51
Q

5

Describe the outcomes of the 1997 election

A
  • Labour won a majority of 179
  • Labour won 43% of the vote
  • Lab won 418 seats, the highest number ever won by a single party
  • Con 165 (-178), LD 48 (+28)
  • Defence Sec Portillo lost seat - ‘Portillo moment’
52
Q

4

Describe the turnout in the 1997 election

A
  • National turnout of 71%
  • Down 6.3pcs from 1992
  • Next elec in 2001 recorded a turnout of just 59%
  • High compared with modern turnouts - e.g. 67.3% (2019)
53
Q

3

Describe age-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election

A
  • Lab beat Con in every age bracket
  • 18-24: Con 27%, Lab 49% (22pc gap)
  • 65+: Con 36%, Lab 41% (5pc gap)
54
Q

2

Describe gender-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election

A
  • Little divide
  • Lab: men 45%, women 44%
55
Q

5

Describe class-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election

A
  • Greatest divide
  • Lab won back C2 voters who had abandoned party since 1979
  • Blair appealed to middle-class through ‘Third Way’
  • AB: Con 41%, Lab 31%
  • C1: Con 27%, Lab 50%
56
Q

3

Describe ethnicity-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election

A

larger margin - though Lab still won in every demographic
White: Con 32%, Lab 43% (11% gap)
Black: Con 12%, Lab 82% (70% gap)

57
Q

4

Describe region-related voting behaviour in the 1997 election

A
  • Significant factor
  • Northern England: Con 21%, Lab 66%
  • SE England: Con 41%, Lab 32%
  • Scotland: Con 18%, Lab 45%
58
Q

3

Describe valence issues in the 1997 election

A
  • Governing competency - ‘cash for questions’ and ‘arms to Iraq’ affair
  • Economic competence - Lab promised to stick to Tory spending plans and not raise income tax
  • Party unity - Major faced leadership challenge in 1995 and party divided over Europe
59
Q

1

Describe salient issues in the 1997 election

A
  • Public services took centre stage
60
Q

3

Describe party policies and manifestos in the 1997 election

A
  • Lab promised to invest in health and edu (e.g. treat 100k extra patients)
  • Lab promised to be ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’
  • Conservatives allowed transfer of non-working tax-free allowance to partner for nuclear family (outdated)
61
Q

2

Describe the impact of leadership in the 1997 election

A
  • Blair seen as charismatic and had high personal approval rating
  • Major seen as dull
62
Q

3

Describe the Labour campaign in the 1997 election

A
  • New Labour campaign
  • Blair’s photo on front of manifesto - capitalised on personal popularity
  • Red rose symbol emerged
63
Q

2

Describe the Conservative campaign in the 1997 election

A
  • Tory attempts to paint Blair as socialist in ‘New Labour, New Danger’ backfired
  • Opinion polls narrowed towards end - but lengthy campaign had little impact on result
64
Q

2

Describe the impact of the media in the 1997 election

A
  • ‘The Sun backs Blair’ (1997) - Blair had close relationship with Murdoch
  • spin doctors - Alaistar Campbell (former Mirror columnist), Peter Mandelson (tv producer) brought in
65
Q

3

Describe the wider political context of the 2010 election

A
  • Lab seeking 4th successive term
  • GFC 2008 and economic problems (Lab attacked for spending during boom)
  • Expenses Scandal 2009 (many involved did not re-run Lab MP Margaret Moran)
66
Q

7

Describe the outcome of the 2010 election

A
  • Hung Parliament
  • First Peacetime Coalition since 1930s
  • Seats: Con 306 (+96), Lab 258 (-91), LD 57 (-5)
  • Votes: Con 36% (+4), Lab 29% (-6), LD 23% (+1)
  • LD underperformed against expectations
  • Lab received higher seat total than expected
  • ⅙ voters participated in tactical voting
67
Q

2

Describe the total turnout in the 2010 election

A
  • Total - 65.1% (+3.7)
  • Avg of time
68
Q

2

Describe the gender-related turnout in the 2010 election

A

Male 66% vs Female 64%

69
Q

2

Describe the age-related turnout in the 2010 election

A
  • 18-24: 44% (+7)
  • 65+: 76% (+1)
70
Q

2

Describe the ethnicity-related turnout in the 2010 election

A
  • White 67% (+5)
  • Non-white 51% (+4)
71
Q

4

Describe the region-related turnout in the 2010 election

A
  • Eng 65.5% (+4.5)
  • Scot 64% (+3)
  • Wal 65% (+2)
  • NI 58% (-5.5)
72
Q

3

Describe the class-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election

A
  • ABC1 voted Con over Lab by margin of over 10 points
  • C2 voted Con over Lab by 8 points
  • DE vote - Lab beat Con by 9 points
73
Q

3

Describe the age-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election

A
  • not overly significant factor
  • Con did better than Lab in all but 18-24 age bracket (Con 30% vs Lab 31 vs LD 30%)
  • Con polled at 44% in over-65 bracket
74
Q

4

Describe the gender-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election

A
  • No gender gap (apart from LD)
  • Con: Male 38% vs Female 36%
  • Lab: Male 28% vs Female 31%
  • LD: Male 22% vs Female 26%
75
Q

4

Describe the region-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election

A
  • Scotland and Wales remained Lab stronghold
  • England swung to Con
  • London swung to Lab and LD (under Tory mayor)
  • NI: SF largest vote and DUP most seats
76
Q

3

Describe the ethnicity-related voting behaviour in the 2010 election

A
  • Clear issue in election
  • White: Con 38%, Lab 28%, LD 24%
  • Non-white: Con 16%, Lab 60%, LD 20%
77
Q

3

Describe valence issues in the 2010 election

A
  • Lab’s economic competence severely undermined
  • Con’s ‘modernisation project’ and ‘big society’ faltered due to doubts of governing competency
  • Eric Pickles Con MP claimed second home on expenses despite only being 37 miles away
78
Q

1

Describe the salient issues of the 2010 election

A
  • GFC - economy most high-profile issue
79
Q

2

Describe the Conservative Party policies and manifestos in the 2010 election

A
  • spending cuts in all areas but health and foreign aid
  • led party open to accussation it would cause ‘double-dip’ recession
80
Q

2

Describe the Labour Party policies and manifestos in the 2010 election

A
  • Protect investment in childcare, schools, NHS and policing
  • Hold ref on AV and ref on making HoL fully elected by 2011
81
Q

4

Describe the LD Party policies and manifestos in the 2010 election

A
  • impose ‘mansion tax’ on properties over £2m
  • ‘break up banks’
  • scrap identity card scheme
  • introduce codified constitution and STV for all UK elections
82
Q

3

Describe the impact of leadership in the 2010 election

A
  • Gordon Brown percieved as weak and dithering - personal popularity fell to historic lows
  • ON Cameron initiated process of party modernisation
  • Clegg ‘as popular as Churchill’
83
Q

2

Describe the impact of the campaign in the 2010 elecion

A
  • Cleggmania
  • Bigotgate - Gillian Duffy - Lab supporter in Rochdale
84
Q

3

Describe Cleggmania

A
  • first televised election debate in UK - 10.3m viewers
  • ‘I agree with Nick’ trending on Twitter
  • Snap poll showed he was nearly as popular as Churchill
85
Q

4

Describe the impact of the media in the 2010 election

A
  • Papers (inc Economist + The Sun) broadly supportive of modernised Conservatives
  • The Guardian backed LD
  • Clegg and Cameron assured media performers - despite ‘Old Etonian’ label
  • Brown distrusted for poor media performance
86
Q

2

Give stats that show class dealignment

A
  • AB Con - 78% (1964) vs 45% (2019)
  • DE Lab - 64% (1964) vs 39% (2019)
87
Q

3

Where are Conservative and Labour strongholds?

A
  • Con - small town, rural, suburban (e.g. SE England)
  • Lab - large metropolitan areas (esp in N/mid)
  • Battlegrounds e.g. midlands
88
Q

5

Describe the 1997 pledge card

A
  • Cut class sizes to 30 or under for 5, 6 and 7-year-olds by using money from the assisted places scheme.
  • Fast-track punishment for persistent young offenders by halving the time from arrest to sentencing.
  • Cut NHS waiting lists by treating an extra 100,000 patients as a first step by releasing £100,000,000 saved from NHS red tape.
  • Get 250,000 under-25s off benefits and into work by using money from a windfall levy on the privatised utilities.
  • No rise in income tax rates, cut VAT on heating to 5% and inflation and interest rates as low as possible.

Politics Paper 1 (27 decks)

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