4: The UK Economy - Policies Flashcards
Possible government objectives
- Sustainable economic growth - aims for sustainability environmentally and promoting long-term growth to avoid busts
- Price stability - keep inflation + rate of interest low and stable. Measured by CPI. Inflation target = 2%
- Low unemployment
- Sustainable fiscal deficit and national debt - fiscal deficit - government spends more than it receives in tax revenue -> leads to borrwing. If interest on national debt is too high = high opportunity cost i.e. could be spent on education or healthcare
- Low income inequality and poverty - if this is high leads to social unrest + lower standard of living. Measured by gini coefficient
- Stable current account - try to improve international competitveness -> exports are promoted
What do banks and other institutions use as a guide for interest rates?
The Monerary Policy Committee’s ‘base rate’
What is the impact of interest rate change?
Central bank tries to achieve the inflation target by manipulating interest rates and quantative easing (when the central bank introduces new money into the money supply
The effect of lowering the base rate
If base rate is lowered -> lower the rate commercial bamks lend/borrow from each other
In theory this should be passed on to consumer/firms via a decrease in mortgage rates/loans. Will have various effects on the components of AD/AS
The effect on the housing market and consumption if the base rate falls
Mortgages cheaper -> allows first-time buyers to take out mortgages -> housing market booms
Housing market booms -> existing homeowners experience positive wealth effect as houses rise in value -> may take out larger mortgages -> more money to spend
Exisiting mortgage holders have lower monthly repayments -> more disposable income
The effect on consumption if the base rate falls
Loans are cheaper -> people borrow more to finance consumption -> AD rises -> opposite multiplier effects
Return on savings falls when interest falls -> opportunit cost of consuming falls -> people spend more
The effect on government spending if the base rate falls
Lower corporate borrowing rates -> government can borrow money at an even lower interest rate
Government can borrow cheaply meaning running a fiscal deficit is less negative than when interest rates are high
HOWEVER, in a booming economy tax revenues may rise -> fiscal deficit less likely
The effect on trade and exchange rates if the base rate falls
Lower interest rates means hot money flows out -> increase in supply of sterling -> fall in demand for stirling -> stirling depreciates
Results in imports becoming more expensive but exports become cheaper -> demand for x rise, m falls -> value of x rises, m falls -> trade deficit falls -> AD rises
The effect on business investment if the base rate falls
Loans cheaper -> more investment in projects i.e. construction -> real GDP rises
Who has control of the money supply and what have they been doing since 2008?
Bank of England. They have undertaken a programme of quantative easing since the 2008 financial crash
Quantative easing
- Central bank creates new money (adding zeros to their bank account) -> uses this money to purchase bonds from commercial banks or pension funds -> commercial banks/pension funds have cash to spend elsewhere in the economy -> new money injected into economy
- BOE’s demand for govt. bonds increases their price -> brings done their yield (return)
- Means pension funds and banks go in search of a higher yield i.e. housing or the stock market. HOWEVER, they could hoard it or invest it abroad
Issues with quantative easing
Cause inflation
Financial institutions may hoard it rather than invest it into the ‘real economy’
ULTIMATELY, seen as a useful tool to stimulate the economy when interest rates are virually as low as they can go
What is the Bank of England?
Central bank of the UK
Made operationally independent in 1997 -> not directly accountable to the government
Bank of England’s objectives
Inflation at 2%
Allowed a +/- 1% point in inflation taret before it ha to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why its away from target, whats being done about it and when it will be back on track
No exchange rate target since 1992
What is the Monetary Policy Committee?
Made up of 9 members
Meet once a month to decide whether there will be a change in monetary levers or not