3.4 Phase 1: Developing Data Flashcards
developing data
The first phase of Human Resources Planning. Includes inventory of the current workforce, projected future needs, and an understanding of what will be required to meet those needs.
HR Analysis
Begins with taking inventory of both the current workforce and the jobs within the organization. A Knowledge of the skills, abilities, interests, and preferences of the current workforce is half of the inventory. The other half consists of knowing the characteristics of current jobs and the skills required to perform them.
HR Demand Forecasting
Forecasting results can be given in approximations—not absolutes or certainties. Two common forecasting techniques are used to project the organization’s demand for human resources: judgmental forecasts and conventional statistical projections.
Judgmental Forecasting
Done by experts who assist in preparing the forecasts. Most common method of estimating HR demand is managerial estimates, another type is the Delphi Technique and the related method nominal grouping technique
nominal grouping technique
A group process involving problem identification, solution generation, and decision-making.
managerial estimates
typically made by top management (a top-down approach)
Delphi Technique
A method of group decision- making and forcasting that involves successively collating judgements of experts.
Statistical Projections
Includes simple linear regression and multiple linear regression analyses, as well as Productivity ratios: With productivity ratios, historical data are used to examine the past level of a productivity index.
Human resource ratios: With human resource ratios, past HR data are examined to determine historical relationships among employees in various jobs or job categories. Regression analysis can then be used to project key group requirements for various job categories.
Time series analysis: In a time series analysis, past staffing levels are used to project future HR needs. Past staffing levels are examined in view of isolating season and cyclical variations, long-term trends, and random movements.
Stochastic analysis: In stochastic analysis, the likelihood of landing a series of contracts is combined with the HR requirements of each contract to estimate expected staffing requirements.
Simple linear regression
A projection of future demand is based on a past relationship between the organization’s employment level and a variable related to employment, such as sales.
Multiple linear regression
An extension of simple linear regression analysis. However, in multiple linear regression, instead of relating employment to just one variable, multiple variables are used.
Productivity ratios:
With productivity ratios, historical data are used to examine the past level of a productivity index.
Human resource ratios:
With human resource ratios, past HR data are examined to determine historical relationships among employees in various jobs or job categories. Regression analysis can then be used to project key group requirements for various job categories.
Time series analysis:
In a time series analysis, past staffing levels are used to project future HR needs. Past staffing levels are examined in view of isolating season and cyclical variations, long-term trends, and random movements.
Stochastic analysis:
In stochastic analysis, the likelihood of landing a series of contracts is combined with the HR requirements of each contract to estimate expected staffing requirements.
Forecasting HR Supply
two techniques to help forecast internal labor supply: judgmental and statistical.
Judgmental Techniques
replacement planning and succession planning
Replacement planning
Uses charts that show the names of the current occupants of positions in the organization and the names of likely replacements.
Succession planning
Tends to be long-term, developmental, and flexible. Although succession planning is widely practiced, many employers who use it tend to emphasize characteristics of the managers and downplay characteristics of the positions to which the managers may eventually be promoted.
The quality of the forecast depends on the accuracy of information and the predictability of events. What kind of time frame gives more accurate information and more predictability of events?
A shorter time horizon
Which of the following is the most common judgmental forecasting method for estimating HR demand?
Managerial estimates
True or False: Simple linear regression works to predict future employment needs because when sales double, the level of employment necessary will always double as well.
False
What is time series analysis?
When past staffing levels are used to project future HR needs.
What is a judgmental technique used by organizations to make supply forecasts?
Replacement planning