3 reasoning

Question 1

frequentists vs Bayesians

Answer 1

• frequentists: assign probabilities to data
• Bayesians: assign probabilities to hypotheses (and incorporate prior knowledge)

Question 2

what is the availability heuristic

Answer 2

people judge probability by assessing ease by which relevant instances can be called to mind

Question 3

conjunction fallacy

Answer 3

you think _ _ _ _ _ n _ is rarer than _ _ _ _ i n g but actually it’s a subset

Question 4

subadditivity

Answer 4

whole is less probable than the sum of its parts (giving “none of the above” vs giving a few options)

Question 5

base rate neglect example? helped by?

Answer 5

p(cancer) = 1%
if she has cancer p(pos) = 80%, if not p(pos) = 10%. if she has pos what’s the probability she actually has cancer?

helped by natural frequencies (“of the 990 without breast cancer 99 will still have a positive mammogram”)

Question 6

representativeness heuristic? also produces?

Answer 6

• judge probability based on an assumption of similarity e.g. assuming gamer
• also produces base rate neglect (don’t take into account actual rate in population)
• and conjunction fallacy (more likely to be “feminist bank teller” than “bank teller”)

Question 7

gambler’s fallacy and hot hand fallacy

Answer 7

• gambler’s fallacy > more likely to be heads cause jn all tails. often attributed to representativeness heuristic
• hot hand fallacy - prob win again cause you won jn

Question 8

what is anchoring

Answer 8

assimilation of numerical judgement towards externally provided candidate response