3 past present future Flashcards
definition of transport revolution
big change of mobility behavior within a society. technology that allowed that changes.
substantial change in society’s transport activity:
- moving people
- moving freight
- of both
that occurs in less that 25 years
dimension of mobility change
scale: people and freight move farther
speed
Efficiency: usually fuel efficiency, something other. Around 30% of the total cost of a flight is fuel. goal of every airline= reduce fuel costs.
Accessibility: who affect if GA is going to be more expensive? if you increase the transport cost you affect the pope that cannot afford to life new to the center. (economic and social)
Transport revolution in human history - Paleolithic
from ca 700’000 BP: first migration of hominids from africa
from ca 100’000 BP: frist migration of modern humans from africa
from ca 60’000: first migration by sea to Australasia
Transport revolution in human history - Agrarian
From ca 4000 BCE: final powered transport
from ca. 3500 BCE: Wheeled transport
from ca. 1500 BCE : long-distance ship in Polynesia
1st millennium BCE: state-build roads and canals
Modern
1st millennium CE: improvements in shipbuilding, navigation
form early 19th century: railways and steamship
from late 19th century: internal combustion engines
from early 20th century: air travel
from mid 20th century: space travel
Britain’s railway revolution
1830-1850
technological stage
steam locomotives (horse coaches could not compete with the railway on either speed or price)
Economy: industrial revolution and colonial trade
Business model: moving masses of people and freight by train over long distances
–> considerable growth of freight
farter mobility was needed
competition in transport was wanted (ships were monopolies)
increased value of farming products, if they can be moved faster (landowner provided land for railways)
lower prices for shipping - less time sensitive shipments were attached
buses became more local instead of intercity operations
Motorization in the USA
1939-1945
individualization by motorization
technology: automatic gearbox
economy: WW2
Business model: to produce a car for everybody (civilian auto production picked up because more americans were working in military production and thus earrings the means to purchase cars)
before WW2 USA government was investing a lot in electric cars
Limited civilian automobile production & restricted use of cars in WW2
car assembly lines were retrofit dot produce war material
petrol rationing from 1942
car sharing was promoted
rail and bus travel increase while car trave decreased.
transatlantic travel
1949-1974
intercontinental mobility
internationalization
“political stage”
Technology: commercial jet planes
Economy: continous rapid growth
Business model: national flag-carriers increasing continental and intercontinental network.
intercontinental routes and continental “raster-networks”
Transatlantic Travel: Air vs. Sea
- since 1957 more people cross the Atlantic by air then by sea
- advances in aviation technology in WWII set the stage for intercontinental air transport
- ships had been the first low cost carriers in intercontinental trave in tourist cabins
- aircraft productivity was imported, as the 7-8 hour flight time between Europa and USA would enable return flights within 24 hours
- Cruise lines had emerged in tourism
high speed rail revolution
1960 - 1985
stage: high speed rail revolution
Technology: high speed rail
economic growth
business model: moving people by train over long distances as fast as possible
environmental issues are recognized in transport
travelers were traveling more by car & plane. Government supported new rail technology
new high speed trains focused on niche markets, not to serve all mobility needs
the Japanese Shinkansen concept has proven to be a transport revolution
France was the second country with high speed train
the high speed train revolution reveals the capacity of government & industry to collaborate on both the technical and organizational redesign of a mature mobilty
happening in china now
Air freight revolution
1980 - 2005
step: deregulation, air freight revolution
technology: new wide body planes. network management
economy: cycles
Business model: global logistics networks. Hubs. alliances.
- -> globalization
- -> theory of just in time production
Regular air mail in the US postal service for 1918.
Considerable growth after WWII.
Air cargo networks were established & integrated with surface transport networks to establish a door-to-door delivery system.
Before the air freight revolution movements concerned mainly passenger transport.
Worldwide per capita movement of people 1950 - 1990 (person kilometers)
automobile increased dramatically.
Walk / bicycle: decreased
ocean increase till 1900 then decreased.
bus, air and rail increased
now: 1 Car, 2 Walk /bicycle, 3 Bus, 4 Rail, 5 Air
Worldwide per capita movement of freight 1950 - 1990 (freight in tonne-kilometers)
- Ocean freight: increased drammmmmmatically
- rail and road. (road increased faster)
air kinda stable… there isn’t that much increase.
Annual new vehicle sales by region to 2030
in OECD region there isn’t almost any increase anymore.
Non- OECD region are and are going to increase.
if developing counties follow the same path or car dependence as OECD nations, technological advances are unlikely to offset the large increase in vehicle related emission!
motor vehicle fleet (flotta)
OECD: a lot of cars but increasing less rapidly. Stagnating
rest of the world: doing the same OECD nations did 50 years ago. strong increasing number of cars and bigger amount of motorcycles than in OECD
fuel use for road transport (1990-2030)
OECD counties: cars, light trucks, motorcycles twice as much as heavy trucks
rest of the World: in 2010 heavy trucks surpassed cars,….
energy consumption in the transport sector until 2030
OECD: 55 –> 75
BRIC: 15 –> 30
ROW: 15 –> 30
row: developing countries
evolution of world total final energy consumption by fuel
oil biggest share
coal only one which is not growing.
Evolution of world total energy consumption by region
OECD: biggest share (almost half of the total)
China: growing fast.
Goal to reduce energy conniption –>
challenge for transportation because 1/3 of energy consumption is used by transportation.
we are not going to be less mobile: train and buses also consume.
Oil producers,
- Saudi Arabia
- Russia
3 USA
4 China
5 Canada
6 Kuwait
7 Venezuela
8 UAE
9 Iraq - isl. rep of Iran
Oil exporters
1 Saudi Arabia 3 Russia 4 Nigeria 5 Iraq 6 UAE 7 Kuwait
Evolution of total oil consumption by sector
most o oil used by transport. then non-energy use.
Different kind of transport fuels consumed
1 petrol 44%
2 diesel 33%
Actual and projected discovery and consumption
always more consumption and less discoveries
Global emission by sector
power 24% (land use 18) transport 14 industry 14 (Agriculture 14) Buildings 8
difficult to do something in transport. easier in power! in aviation hard. in road not as hard
CO2 emission. where
1 OECD. 3 China (growing!)
estimated global warming impact of transport modes worldwide.
till 2030
1. Aircraft increasing!
personal vehicles stable
trucks increasing
Approaches to future transport
Criteria: Environmental, social, economic
if all three criteria considered: sustainable transport. –> pro active policy development for achieving EST (environmental sustainability)
if only social and economic: business as usual.
estimated external costs of transport till 2030 (vs 1990)
BAU vs EST
1990: 200
BAU: 300
EST: 100
Regional perspectives of sustainable transport
Regional with respect to noise, smell and politics :
- economic: export orientation, location attractively, employment, loving location, business location, financial effects, development potentials…
- Ecologic: noise, smell emission
Social: mobility=quality of life, health impacts, accidents
Global perspectives of sustainable transport
Global with respect to climate change
• Economic: international competitiveness
- Ecologic: global climate change
- Social: global mobility needs, accidents
pollution is global but we can du something only in the local scale.
people speak about what they can see (smell, noise) but not emission (you cannot feel that)
implication for the future
-Alternative energy provision
-efficient pricing which covers all the costs (incl. all social and environmental costs)
• Emissions trading
• taxes
• etc. !
new technologies, which are more efficient concerning energy consumption.
regulatory approaches / policy
Alternative to oil: Natural Gas
:)
- burns more cleanly then petrol or diesel
- lover cost fuel depending on tax
- main feedstock on methanol production and hydrogen
- modest contribution to the replacement of oil as a transport fuel.
:(
-weight and size of last fuel tanks
Alternative to oil: biofuels
:)
- support of agribusiness
- homegrown alternative to rising oil imports
- renewable transport fuels
:(
- waste energy to create the biofuels
- accelerate climate change
- deplete soil
- displace food production
- produce biofuel instead of food in developing countries
- increase spread between rich and poor people
biofuels: what are?
Biofuels:
- ethanol made from fermentation of sugars
- biodiesel made from vegetable oils
- biogas made from anaerobic digestion of waste plant material
Biofuels are:
- carbon based fuels
- do not necessarily result in CO2
- burn more cleanly then petroleum equivalents
Alternative to oil: hydrogen
:)
- hydrogen powers fuel cells which drive electric motors
- quick refueling
- ability to carry enough fuel for several hundred km
- no emission
- high efficiency
- low noise
- vibration free
:(
- Compete with its now energy source (e.g. wind turbine)
- high weight
- high amount of volume
- widespread hydrogen infrastructure is missing
- complex hydrogen storage and fulling
- very explosive
- need a lot of space
- we are far from that
Alternative to oil: electricity
:)
- hybrid engines with fuel powered battery charges and electric drive supported by the fuel engine
- no exhaust
- no noise
- grid connection vehicles (buses, trains): no charging no batteries
:(
- Weight and space need for batteries
- short distances with battery power
- carparks with charging possibility needed
- batteries ha to be exchanged after some time (costs and disposal)
- grid connected vehicles (buses, trains): no flexible routing, investment needed: how to generate electricity (nuclear power station?)
most nuclear in OECD. slow decreasing
Hybrid engines
Cars: fuel engines which power electricity generators
Locomotives: diesel engines which power electricity generators
Shipping: diesel engines and gas turbines producing electricity
Electricity production
solarpower, windpower, tidepower, waterpower, coalpower,
nuclearpower:
more clean energy because no pollution
disposal of nuclear waste: unsolved final disposal issues
risk of explosion
Case dubai
Dubai depends on oil prices. They focused only on one sector and if the price of oil fall their revenues decrease dramatically.
They should develop news sectors how they already did!invest in Tourism!
they built those infrastructures in order to attract tourist. They create Emirates to get the access.
Not enough doctor and hospital in Europe!in the future health tourism
