3

Question 1

climate change uncertainty

Answer 1

uncertainty exists when there is a lack of knowledge concerning outcomes. uncertainty may arise from an imprecise knowledge of risk (hazard x probability)

Question 2

what causes climate change uncertainty?

Answer 2

• limited understanding of the global climate system
• unknown future development
• natural variability in climate systems
• initial conditions

Question 3

robustness

Answer 3

a robust climate signal indicates that models agree on the direction and amount of change
robustness in adaptation: a robust adaptation measure is well suited for a range of scenarios/model outputs

Question 4

confidence + when is a climage signal confident

Answer 4

indicates a high certainty and trust in the climate signal
when:
- the change can be detected in observations (observation records, re-analyses)
- most models show the same direction of change
- there is an understanding why the change will occur from a climate science point of view

Question 5

models and adaptation measures

Answer 5

models are an essential tool to assess the upscaling potential of adaptation measures and to develop adaptation strategies