22-28 lectures Flashcards
what are the 4 catagories that chance is divided into?
validity
sampling error
confidence intervals
p-values
what is validity split into?
internal and external validity
what is internal validity?
we need to consider chance, bias and confounding
its when we ask are there other explanations for the study findings, apart from them being right
what is external validity?
the extent to which the study findings are applicable to a broader or different population
how do we estimate the parameters of the actual prevalnce/incidence/RR/OR/RD?
we you the data from a study population parameters to take an estimate
what is sampling errors?
when samples would be quite different to the others samples and this is up to chance and is refferend to as sampling error
how do we reduce chance?
we can increase the number of samples in the study which reduces sample variablity and increases the likelihood of getting a represtative sample and increases the percision of the parameters
what percentage is confidence intervals?
95%
what does the 95% confidence intervals represent?
the range of values within which the parameter will lie 95% of the time if we continue to repeat the same study with new samples
where are our odds ratio found?
between our 2 confidence intervals
what can we use the 95% confidence intervals help us with?
to make predictions where our prevalence and OR will fall
tell us whether the study findinhgs are clinically important
what are parameters?
the true value of the measure in the population that the study is trying to recover
what is the point estimate?
the measure found in the sample study
what are p-values?
the possability of getting estimate when there is no association just because of sampling error (chance)
if the p-value possibility is really low then what?
it is unlikely to be that the estimate is due to sampling error (chance)
what is H0?
the null hypothesis
what is the null hypothesis?
there is no association in the population so the RR,OR = 1 and the RR = 0
what is Ha?
alternative hypothesis
what is the alternative hypothesis?
when the parameter does not equal the null value so the RR, OR doesnt equal 1 and RD doesnt equal 0
what is statisical significance?
the threshold we set because of sampling error (type-1 error)
what happens if the p less than 0.05?
then we reject H0 and accept Ha so association is not statistically significant
what happens if the p is grater than 0.05?
then we fail to reject H0 and reject Ha so the association is significantly significant
what can no association be beacause?
chance
what if we dont have association of the true (unknown) and association of study results?
then we have a type-1 error
what if we have association of the true (unknown) and not the association of the study results?
then we have a type-ll error
what are type-ll errors?
incorrectly rejection of H0 when it shouldve been
what causes type-ll errors?
due to having too few people in the study
how to we not get type-ll errors?
by having a bigger sample size to have a smaller p- value
what happens if the CI include the null value?
the p-value is greater that 0.05 so it is not statistically significant
what happens if the CI doesnt include the null value?
then the p-value is less than 0.05 so it is statistically significant
what is CI?
confidence interval
what are limitations of the p-value?
arbitrary threshold
only about H0
nothing about importance
what is arbitrary threshold?
the statistical significance threshold is arbitrary and artificial
its useful for reporting p-values rather than just the statistical significance
what is only about H0?
just giving evidence about consistancy with the null hypothesis
not really percise
what is nothing about importance?
statistical significance is not clinical significance
does not say that the results of the study are valid useful or correct
what is bias?
a systematic error in an epidemiologic study that results in an incorrect estimate of the association between exposure and risk of a disease
what is random error?
something that doesnt really have a pattern with it
what is sytematic error?
iif there is a pattern that we cant change no matter the amount of samplinh that we do
what can systematic error be?
an over-estimation
an under estimation
not affected
when is selection and information bias collected?
can only be controlled during the design and data collection phases of a study
what are 3 potential sources of bias when collecting data?
selection bias
information bias
publication bias
What is selection bias?
who is going to be in the study
when does systematic bias occur?
when the systematic difference between the people who are included in the study and those who are not, or when study and comparison groups are selected inappropriately or using different criteria
where is there systematic difference?
between those who are included and those who are not included
what is recruitment?
how people can get recruited into the epidemiology study one way is an ad for people to notice
what is random selection?
better at giving us a better representation for there to be minimised bias course
what do people who dont agree to participate and can lead to?
systematuic error
why do we want to maximise the response rate?
because the difference of people who are in the investigation and who isnt can lead to a negative affect on the data
what can minimise the amount of people from dropping out?
following up
what are some ways to minimise lose to follow up?
-alternative contract details obtained at the start of the study
-maintaining regular contact
-making several attempts to contact people
what are cross sectional study designs?
the exposures and outcomes are assessed at one point of time and we can measure the prevalence of the study
when is comes to bias in cross sectional study designs what do we have to consider?
who entered the study
sample represntative of source population
what is the response rate
what happenns if the selection is dependant on their outcome status in case controlled studies?
exposure and outcome have already occurred
cases and controls are selective separately
what are case controlled studies?
the cases and controls goes to the measure past exposure when considering bias
what is the MOA in a protective factor?
underestimated beacsue of bias the measure of association is under estimated and the value is towards the null but estimation is bias numerically upwards