21st Century Security: Demography and the Environment Flashcards
How many people globally lose their lives to violence?
800,000
How many people globally suffer from poverty, ill health, illiterates and other maladies?
2.8 billion
How is conflict and deprivation inter-connected?
Wars kill people, destroy trust among them, increase poverty and crime, and slow down the economy.
What is human security?
A paradigm shift in the referent object of security; from the state to the individual.
What two changes are on the new security agenda?
Demographic Change
Environmental Change
What was the population in 2011 and what is it predicted to rise to by 2100?
7 billion in 2011
11.2 billion in 2100
Where will population growth occur?
Growth will occur in the poorest countries
Developed countries face falling populations
Most growth taking place in urban areas
How many megacities are there and where?
37, most located in the developing world.
What is the problem with megacities and rapid population growth?
Inability to provide basic services will produce poverty, chaos and hopelessness.
Young people concentrated in millions may fall prey to nationalism, religious fanaticism and messianic leaders.
Young people with no prospects may find an outlet in violence and war.
How will changing demographics affect the armed forces?
Slow or negative growth in the developed world will make it difficult to fill the armed forces.
Costs of healthcare and pensions will cut into defence budgets.
Contrasting demographics trends will force changes in defence policies and strategies.
What do population pessimists say?
Nation states losing their domestic monopoly of violence.
Violence is becoming less politically organised.
World is descending into chaos and ‘Warlordism’.
Differing attitudes to death and war emerging
West becoming ‘risk overse’
War by remote control
Developing world: Emergence of ‘warrior cultures’ willing to sacrifice all for good will.
What do population optimists say?
Accelerating development will lead to population decline
Ballot box may substitute the Kalashnikov
Examples of environmental problems
Commons problems, sustainable development, ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ (Hardin), Problems transcend borders, Air pollution, destruction of ozone layer, overfishing, deforestation, depletion of fossil fuel reserves.
What is water security and what is the problem?
Ability to access sufficient quantities of clean water to maintain adequate standards of food and goals production, sanitation and health.
Severe water shortages may become the most pressing social and political issue of next 20 years.
What are water wars?
Access to water a source of conflict. ‘Water wars’
1967 Arab-Israeli War triggered by a water dispute
Control of supply and scarcity
Nile, Tigris, Euphrates, Indus all potential flashpoints between countries with pre-existing issues.
