21st Century Security Agenda - new wars and terrorism

Question 1

How has the security agenda broadened?

Answer 1

Increasing acknowledgement that a states security measures will have an impact on its neighbors.
Security may be endangered by more than military threats alone.
Collectivities other than the state could be the subject of security.

Question 2

Examples of the broadening of the security agenda

Answer 2

Drug trafficking, Organised Crime, Financial flows, Migration, Terrorism, WMD proliferation, Ethnic wars, Gender, Cyber War

Question 3

What ‘3’ securities are there?

Answer 3

Global security, societal security, human security

Question 4

What are the trends in 21st Century Conflict?

Answer 4

Ethnic/ Secessionist Conflict (identity)
Low intensity conflicts/asymetric wars
International Terrorism
WMD
Persistence of inter-state war.

Question 5

New Wars- Ethnic/secessionist conflicts

Answer 5

Small wars, low intensity conflicts, civil wars in the years following the end of the cold war.
Differ from earlier secessionist conflicts in a number of respects.
Re-emergence of this kind of war in Europe for the first time since Second World War

Widespread and systemic violation of the ‘rules of war’ and human rights.
Ethnic cleansing e.g. Srebrinica
More permissive international environment
Overlay: Local security concerns subordinated to the security orientation of the dominating power (Buzan)

Question 6

What is terrorism? (According to Clausewitz)

Answer 6

Terrorism is a technique, a method, not an ideology.

Question 7

Terrorism definition

Answer 7

The deliberate use, or threat, of violence against civilians for a political purpose.

Question 8

Examples of state terror(ism)

Answer 8

Reign of Terror (1793-94)
Great Terror (Stalin 1930's)
Systematic Nazi Terror
China
Latin America
China
Middle East
Most terrorist acts occur in the context of inter-communal violence

Question 9

How can acts of terror take place in the context of ‘lawful wars’?

Answer 9

Many bombing raids during WW2 aimed at creating ‘terror’ in civilian populations.
Break the bands of ‘Just War’ principles.

Question 10

What is state-sponsored terrorism?

Answer 10

International terrorist activity conducted by the state or through the support of terrorist groups
Many states have ‘sponsored’ terrorism.
Iran: Hezbollah
USA in Latin America (Operation Condor)

Question 11

What is dissident/’classical’ terrorism?

Answer 11

“kill one scare a million”

Objective: To instill fear into its target audience through the use of dramatic and shocking acts; bombings; assassinations, hostage-taking.

Question 12

What is the ‘classical terrorism’ strategy?

Answer 12

Attack and kill representatives of the state
Undermine/divide the loyalty of the population
Create incidental or intended victims among the civilian population
Force the state to take harsh counter measures.

Question 13

What are the strategic constrains on classical terrorism?

Answer 13

Attacks on civilian targets had to be limited in order to win-over and maintain popular support.
Need to avoid overwhelming counter measures that could result in extinction. Not strong enough to engage in open warfare with the state.
“Terrorists want many people watching but not many dead” (Jenkins)

Question 14

What did Jenkins say regarding terrorism?

Answer 14

“Terrorists want many people watching but not many dead” (Jenkins)

Question 15

Is terrorism an existential or systematic threat?

Answer 15

Dissident ‘terrorists’ groups of the latter half of the 20th century did not present an existential or systemic threat.

Question 16

Is terrorism effective?

Answer 16

Can be e.g. Nelson Mandela

Question 17

What is the definition of non-state terrorism?

Answer 17

The threatened or actual use of illegal force by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious or social goal through fear, coercion or intimidation.

Question 18

What are the new forms of terrorism/international terrorism and how does it differ from classical terrorism?

Answer 18

Self imposed limits on casualties no longer applies.
Terrorist attacks have declined in number but casualty figures have increased.
But: Relative to other security threats international terrorism ranks very low in terms of destructive scale.

Increase of religiously motivated terrorism
Terrorists exist among all the world’s religions
Do Al Queda, ISIS, Boko Haram etc and ‘affiliates’ really differ from the classical terrorist model?

Question 19

What does terrorist threat inflation allow governments to do?

Answer 19

Introduce intrusive and potentially repressive measures and laws.

• USA Patriot Act 2001
• UK ‘Investigatory Powers Act 2016’ (Snoopers Charter)

Question 20

What were UK terrorist deaths in 2016 compared to 1973?

Answer 20

2016: 54
1973: 344

Question 21

What number of deaths in the 1970’s was regularly topped in the UK by year?

Answer 21

200

Question 22

What is the trend in terror?

Answer 22

Trend in the number of terrorist attacks worldwide is downward.
Overwhelming number of terror attacks take place in the countries that have on-going conflicts (civil wars e.g.)
Terrorism is nothing new, ‘Presentism’ to believe that it is unique and different from other periods of history.
Threat passed by terrorism is wildly overstated and does not present an existential threat or systemic threat.

Question 23

What was the disagreement between Jenkins and Parker (Head of MI5)?

Answer 23

Parker claimed that terrorism is a very serious

Jenkins says that, that is irresponsible

Question 24

What did Owens (Head of NCA) state about organised crime?

Answer 24

“We know that it leads to more deaths in the UK each year than all other national security threats combined. It kills more of our citizens than terrorism, war and natural disasters combined” (2018)