2 Flashcards
5 different demand patterns
Horizontal
Trend
Seasonal
Cyclical
Random
Trend
Data consistently decrease or increases
Seasonal
Data consistently shows peaks and valleys
Cyclical
Data reveal gradual increase and decrease over extended periods
Describe alternative methods of Forecasting
Qualitative : opinions
Quantitative : Case and effect
name 3 Qualitative judgement methods
Expert panel
Delphi method
Scenario planning
List quantitative approaches
Time series
Regression analysis
Describe forecasting as a process
- Adjust history files
- prepare initial forecasts
- Consensus meetings and collaboration
- Revise forecasts
- Review by operating committee
- Finalise and communicate
What is a CPFR
Collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment
Load
The quantity that can be carried at one time by a specified means
Demand
Willingness and ability to purchase a commodity or service
Capacity
The maximum possible output in a given time
3 Types of capacity
- Design
- Effective
- Achieved
Design capacity
The maximum of a operation which can be achieved
Effective Capacity
The potential capacity that can be achieved in a day INCLUDES maintenance and product changeovers
Achieved Capacity
The operation achieved in a given day
INCLUDES unplanned events such as breakdowns ands shortages
Utilization
The proportion of the design capacity that is actually achieved
Achieved capacity / design capacity
Efficiency
The proportion of the effective capacity that is actually achieved
Achieved / Effective
Level capacity
a constant level of production capacity throughout a planning period, regardless of fluctuations in demand.
Chase demand capacity
aims to adjust production capacity to directly match the level of demand. Capacity is increased or decreased as demand fluctuates.
4P’s of demand managament
price place promotion product mix
Demand management
Mix of tools, relies heavily on statistics and historical data
2 Ways of expanding capacity
Leading capacity
Lagging capacity