1NOG NIET AF!!!!!! 4. Taliban regime and state building

Question 1

5 Myths about the Taliban
(Jackson, 2021)

Answer 1

1. Pakistan controls the Taliban
   2.The Taliban fragments easily
2. The Taliban has a plan for running Afghanistan
3. The Taliban will bring back Al-Qaeda
   5.The Taliban doesn’t reflect Afghanistan diversity

Question 2

Mythe 1: Pakistan contorls Taliban

Answer 2

If it is indeed a creature of Pakistan, the creature definitely escaped.’
It is true, the Taliban had complicated relations with Pakistan.
However, another group.. Pakistan tried to bring Sharia into Pakistan; which it not the Taliban.

Question 3

Mythe 2: The Taliban fragments easily

Answer 3

Mostly pushed idea by the US.
Taliban is made out of different networks, and people with different degrees of ideologies. This came with the idea that people could be switched. The Taliban was seen as an onion that could be peeled.’’ However, what we see throughout the years, there is an immense level of discipline, hierarchy (supreme leader); and a very strong network.
After 2013 the Taliban knew some tension, but they still have a very strong military front.

Question 4

Mythe 3: The Taliban has a plan for running Afghanistan

Answer 4

Taliban had a poor track record in the 1990s. In reality they only have limit experience of governance. In 2021 the Taliban is still focused on just being a military organisation (issue of bureaucracy)

Question 5

Mythe 4:Taliban will bring back Al-Qaeda

Answer 5

Taliban still has tied links with Al-Qaidda (last year killed, hosted by Hanakun).
This brings help with international legitimatization. In 1990 they needed the resources like finances, guns etc. However, currently they do not need the same ties anymore,
Taliban is not interested in global war= Interested in own survival

Question 6

Mythe 5:The Taliban doesn’t reflect Afghanistan diversity

Answer 6

Taliban remains Pashtun nationalism over time, but includes diversity.

Question 7

Two sets of challenges to survival of regime

Answer 7

State capacity
unprecedented crisis (economic, financial, humantiarian) + organisational and political challenge.
State legitimacy
violent, and non-violent regime

Question 8

International leverage

Answer 8

• Taliban are in ‘‘position of weakness.’’
  (Baczko & Dorronsoro)
• The West has ‘‘the upper hand’’ in bargaining with Taliban
  ( Girod, 2021)
• High-level diplomacy: benchmark approach (EU), US statements, etc.
• Diplomats: perceived leverage confirmed in Doha interviews (Malejacq Terpstra, 2023)

Question 9

Why is there no leverage?

Idea of leverage is based on the idea that State survival is key

Answer 9

In Post-war environments, the urge for international cohesion, once facilitated by pursuit of a common objective, trumpts the need for international engagement (aid + interantional recognitions)

Reverse leverage?

Ideologically- consistent policymaking serves as a signalling mechanism to domestic audiences (population, rank-and-file, commanders, hardliners)

Diplomatic deadline & counterproductive effect.

Question 10

* In Post-war environments, the urge for international cohesion, once facilitated by pursuit of a common objective, trumpts the need for international engagement (aid + interantional recognitions)

.

Answer 10

o Taliban does not do much in service provision
o Taliban can demand things, because the US and UN will not let the people starve
o They might not want international recognition it as much as we believe they do  not enough in order to make concessions.
o Taliban believes that they earn international recognition  have the right to rule the country in their own way  not something to be negotiated, according to them.
o There are countries that have engage more in Afghanistan, but there are not countries to recognize the Taliban. Will happen once the US will recognize it.
o According to them, they earn recognition for their two first years ‘in government’.
o Has been made very clear that international recognition is not on the table  has not respected the Doha agreements

Question 11

Ideological reason Taliban does not want to take leverage (2 explanations):”

Answer 11

• Extremist advantage logic (Walter, 2017)
• 2 level- game Putnam (1988)

Question 12

Extremist advantage logic (Walter, 2017)

Answer 12

 Taliban is moving to the extremes
 Taliban is aware of the fragmentation forces
 Some think that the Taliban is not going far enough
 Moderate members were telling the diplomats that the schools would reopen, because the leadership got complaints about this  less costly to listen to the extreme members.

Question 13

• 2 level- game Putnam (1988)
  as explanation of Taliban not taking leverage

Answer 13

 Self- reinforcing  the more the international community is pushing  the less they want to do it  values of the west, so the more the extreme members are against it.

Question 14

• International leverage: supposed to moderate the Taliban

Answer 14

 Taliban was supposed to need foreign aid  Taliban did not respond to this.
o Western diplomats were convinced that the girls schools would reopen.

Question 15

Regulations of Taliban (structure of rules)

Answer 15

• not black and white. Some rules are supposed to be temporary
• Definitely more space than in 1990s.
• The society that the Taliban is facing right know, is very different from the society that it faced in the 1990s.
• There might be still some flexibility to leave the country
• Large numbers of people from Taliban are in fact in favour of girls going back to school
• A lot of ambiguity and vagueness in how Taliban is ruling the country

Question 16

• A lot of ambiguity and vagueness in how the Taliban is ruling the country.

Answer 16

 no one seems to want to make the big decisions
 disorganised, but centralised despotic power from the Emir.
 very limited infrastructural power

Question 17

Should the world engage with the Taliban?
No

Answer 17

Moral arguments:
* as a form of symbolic support to the Afghan population
* as a way to avoid legitimizing the Taliban actions internationally

practical arguments:
* engaging will not achieve anything
Taliban has been consistent in their demands, values, ideals
-Taliban has always been very vague about human rights and women rights.
they never really make concessions.

• engaging will strengthen the regime’s hardliners
• Engaging will weaken those who are pressuring them domestically
  civil society actors
• Engaging will strengthen regime politically/ economically

Question 18

Should the world engage with the Taliban?
Yes

Question 19

VOEG TOE

Question 20

How to not negotiate with Taliban
5 common mistakes

Answer 20

1. Misjudge the diplomacy of pariahs
   (a person who is not accepted by a social group, especially because they are not liked, respected, or trusted)
2. Commit exclusively to Human Rights discourse
3. Fail to interpret the discourse of Jihadists
4. Assume rigidity in discourse equals rigidity in policymaking
   goes back to the point of 2 level game
   the most moderate ones should be the ones with the most power –> importance of international engagement.
5. Avoid establishing a clear international roadmap of engagement.
    They also have to realise of why they are in fact engaging  right now very unclear.