1.8 Theoretical Frameworks

Question 1

What is prediction

Answer 1

Knowing when (temporal scale) and where (spatial scale) a hazard will occur

Question 2

What is forecasting

Answer 2

Giving a percentage chance of a hazard occurring over a period of time

Question 3

How do scientists predict earthquakes

Answer 3

Not possible
Can estimate as 90% of earthquakes are on or near a plate boundary

Question 4

How do scientists forecast earthquakes

Answer 4

Seismic gap theory
- highlight areas at risk that haven’t had an earthquake for a long time
- radon emissions
- animal behaviour

Question 5

How do scientists predict volcanoes

Answer 5

• monitor changes with GPS, tilt meters, satellites, seismometers and gas detection

Signs
- magma rising detected by heat sensors and satellites
- changes in surface level due to bulges
- increased emissions of sulphur dioxide
- increased seismic activity caused by magma movement detected by seismometers

Question 6

How do scientists predict tsunamis

Answer 6

• unable to know where
• seismometers locate earthquake’s epicentre
• ocean monitoring technology can be used to detect the tsunami eg IOTWS

Question 7

What are the stages of the hazard management cycle

Answer 7

1. Prevention and mitigation
2. Preparation
3. Response
4. Recovery

Question 8

What is the importance of prevention and mitigation

Answer 8

• aims to reduce impacts of the event

Question 9

What is the importance of preparation

Answer 9

Ease impacts eg by educating the population and planning evacuations

Question 10

What is the importance of response

Answer 10

Quicker response means less secondary, long term impacts eg cholera

Question 11

What is the importance of recovery

Answer 11

Help return life, the environment and the economy pack to normal, but better prepared for a future hazard

Question 12

What is Park’s Model

Answer 12

Graph showing the impact of of a hazard event on peoples quality of life over time

Question 13

What factors affect how a Park Model will look

Answer 13

• preparation and planning
• development
• national and international aid

Question 14

What are advantages of Park’s model

Answer 14

• applied to a range of hazards
• asses risk and provide framework for preparedness
• shows social stability and economic activity in a way that is easily comparable

Question 15

What are disadvantages of Park’s model

Answer 15

• only hows impact of one event
• quantitive data (eg number of deaths) isn’t shown
• doesn’t show preventative measures