`1.4- VOTING BEHAVIOUR AND THE MEDIA Flashcards
How did policy impact the result of the 1979 General election
Both sides were notable for moderation and gave high priority to brining down the level of inflation.
Callaghan resisted extreem proposals, he was on the traditional centre left.
Thatcher gave little indication of her crusade that was soon to emerge, there was some mention of returning recently nationalised industries into private hands and to scale down the state- but nothing to suggest what was to come. This limited Callaghan’s claim that the party was moving to the extreme.
How did the election campaign impact the result of the 1979 General election.
The conservatives embarked the modern use of advertising under the guidance of gordon reece and Tim bell- under saachi and Saachi.
The Labour campaign lacked awareness of the finer points of presentation, thatcher used photo opperunties. Posing with tea and newborn calfs she tried to embrace the new media.
Despite this, Calaghan was more popular- when asked who would make a better prime minister Callaghn trumped thatcher 20 points, despite the conservatives leading in the polls.
Thatcher also trend down debate- she was wise to do so.
What impact did the wider political context have on the 1979 general election
There was a real Weakness in the previous labour government, which was part of the reason it lost a no confidence vote.
Despite the sings of some economic improvement, there was no doubt that the conservatives would win.
His government relied on smaller parties and lacked power- he was vulnerable.
His failure to call a general election proved fatal where the winter of discontent followed the suspected debate and (ultimately) forced him out of parliament.
The winter of discontent saw the government try and impose a 5% limit on pay increase- it collapsed after a series of strikes- many were striking: lorry drivers, health workers, even gravediggers.
Callahan failed to show any solution to this national paralysis and could not control the trade unions. The media showed images of a miserable strike ridden England and when Callaghn returned from a summit in the Caribbean he responded to a question on the crises, responding “crises, what crises” . The conservatives capitalised off this massive started a campaign painting labour as an out of touch party that could not deal with economic and social breakdown.
What impact did party policy have on the 1997 general election.
Labour began to drive themselves into a modernisation method. The new ,labour model abandoned its traditional policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and strengthening unions (Which many thought cut off the middle class voter)
As well as this Blair was tough on law and order, famously being “tough on crime and tough on the cases of crime”- this was to appease the fears of the rising crime rates in the 90s
Labour won the endorsement of the Sun and the Times- the Murdoch papers- that still to this day relentlessly criticise the further left. They presented convertaives as “tired, dIvided and rudderless’ and even claimed to have won the election for Labour.. “give change a chance it cried’
It had the interests of “middle England’ t heart and stress policy that promised to make a difference (reducing class size and cutting waiting line) there was no vast difference between Labour and the conservatives.
Blair also emphasised conditional reform - appeasing the liberal voter and possible increasing tactical voters. This could havE gadded up to 30 seats for labour
What impact did the election campaign have on the 1997 election
New labour placed a huge emphasis on their vote winning machine. Employing PR expects to handle media and using focus groups to gauge public opinion . They targeted marginal seats.
The importance should not be overestimated. Labours share increased 12.5% in seats it targeted and 13.4% in seats it did not. Their opinion polls actually declined across the campaign
How did the wider political context impact the 1997 General election
Labour could not have won on such a scale with the self-inflicted destruction of the Conservative party. The conservatives had their worse election result since 1832winning only 30.7% of the vote.
John major’s government is what won it for labour. The economy was recovering form a recession, but not credit was given for this. Black Wednesday seemed the loss where the conservatives once impenetrable economic image was destroyed. Labour was ahed from autumn 1992 onwards.
Continuing sex scandals and devisons over Europe helped cement this image
How did party policy and manifestos help impact the 2010 General election
There was little difference in policy in 2010. The main issue was that of reducing the deficit that had increased 163 billion since the crises. They all claimed to save without cutting essential services. However, the conservatives were alone in their call of immediate cuts- the others arguing this would jeopardise economic recovery.
There was a focus on managing the economy and not overspending and this resonated with the public (with 59% agreeing the the extra money had been misspend under labour)
How much did the election campaign impact the 2010 election
The 2010 Campain shows the limited importance of campaigns in determining result. There was an intense targeting of seats, with the conservatives doing this since 2005 (establishing their candidates on a local level, market-tasing policies and emphasising the support of public services). Yet despite this, they were still short of a majority.
On Labour’s side much was made of “bigot gate” after a hostile voter embarrassed him on migration and a microphone picked him up calling her a bigoted woman . IT was siezed by the media, but had doubtable impact (labour were already behind and actually held Rochdale).
The most important change was the starting of televised debates - Brown was thought to come across as wooden , often agreeing with Clegg, Clegg experienced a boost in the polls, but fell; back (the media often relentlessly attacked him following the result- with the Mail labelling him as having a “nazi slur on Britain “ and “Westminster schoolboy”
How did the wider political context impact the result of the2010 election
The choice of date again did not help Brown. There was constant speculation as to when he would call an election. He was ridiculed for cowardice after he chose not to call an election “bottler brown”
The finical crises gave the conservatives ammunition to use against him. Despite economic approval from experts, Brown’s decision to bail out the banks gave him little credit.
Brown’s media treatment was harsh: an insecure, cantankerous, workaholic was presented across Britain. A poll before the election (IPSOS MORI) found that 33% regarded Cameron as the most capable leader, compared to 29% for brown. However Brown was ahed as to who understood the problems of Britain best. and would be best in a crises.
29% of voters thought the conservatives would lead the economy more successfully, compared to 26% for labour. However, 36% did not choose any of the parties.
What impact does class have on voting
Up until the 1970s the picture of class in relation to politics was clear. The working class voted labour, it was closely linked to the trade union movement. The middle class voted conservative. Class voting was rampant- they voted for what best served the interests of themselves and their class. OF course it was never as linear as this, Labour often commanded a section of the educated middle class: teachers, state workers and academics. Meanwhile, the conservatives often commanded the support of the institution supporting, patriotic working class- they needed this support to reach office.
However in the final equator the 20th Century, class began to seem less important- in a proceeds called class realignment.
The prominence is not quite as pronounced anymore. As society became more affluent, middle class aspiration seeped not the minds of many working class individuals and many succeeded. The devision did not seem as clear. It was already apparent in 1979, but the Thatcher orchestrated privatisation helped ensure this. With home ownership now a (controversial) reality and a de-industrialisation apparent, the union and working class links o labour weakened. The loss of trade union power also made this greater.
The creation of new labour recognises this shift. The middle class were now enticed by his message. The dropping of clause symbolises this.
However, the higher classes are still more likely to vote labour and the revere is true. People who have stakes finically are more likely to vote. 76% of the two highest classes voted in 2010, compared with 57% of the two lowest classes. Those who owned homes voted at 74% while those who did not voted at 55%. A you gov poll found that the C2 was the most likely to vote conservative at 47% and the A1 at 46%. The A1 is still the least likely to vote Labou rat 38%.
What impact does partisanship and voting attachment have on democracy.
a partisan dealignment has also swept across britain- linked to class.
People are less likely to work for the same industry all their life and with increased education, people are more likely to question their beliefs. Most people have become swing voters. IT comes as a result of dissuasion and apathy.
Less and less people are voting for the major parties, dropping from 81% in 1979 to 74% in 1997 and 65% in 2010
What impact does governing competency and voter choice have on voter behaviour
Another way of expelling voting behaviour is though rational choice theory: the idea that voters behave like consumers; deciding how to vote by evaluating what is the most beneficial option for them as individuals. This is linked with a more educated electorate, with an increased access to information.
Many question how successful a leader would be. Many skilled voters became supportive of Thatcher’s populist style, after feeling disenfranchised.. All of this links back to the idea of governing competency. How successful they have managed their agenda.
A variation of this is economic voting model- the management of the economy mainly being the determining factor.The winter of discontent played a huge role in thatcher’s victory and the absence of a feel good factor helped lead the conservatives to victory in 2010.
The public image has had increased importance. There has been a president style since 1979. Where perceptions of leading figures are very important. Brown failed to come across as dynamic. Photo opportunities often are a big part of it now.
What impact does gender have on voting behaviour.
Traditionally women had a greater preference for conservative voting than male voters. This may be due to their interaction with a traditional society (staying at home and not experiencing gate nature of work) leading them to support traditionalism.
In the Blair era this difference narrowed. Younger women were more likely to vote by men- this may have been due to the increased working of women and Labour’s pro family policies (e.g. free nursery places)
Older women are more liley to vote conservative than younger ones. in 2010 30% of women 18-24 voted conservative, while 42% of those above 55 did.
Turnout does not really differ- 66% of men and 64% of women in 2010.
WHAT IMPACT DOES AGE HAVE ON VOTING
Older people have a greater tendency to vote conservative, they vote less idealisaitically and in the interests of property rights.
Political outlooks are shaped by experience. Many will remember Labour difficulty in the 1970’s, when trade unions enjoyed more power. in 2010 44% of over 65% voted consevrative, compared to 30% of 18-24 year olds. Cameron recused to cut pension benefits, while Labour and Lib Dems said they would remove the winter fuel allowance for the better of retired individuals (they create policy around their voter base)/
Older individuals are also more likely to vote- 75% of over 65s voted in 2010 compared to 44% of 18-24s . Many feel alienated
What impact does ethnicity have on voting
Minority groups are generally more likely to vote labour, which promotes a multi-cultural agenda.
Many are also in low paid jobs. Asian individuals, however, are more likely to vote conservatives- this may be explained by their tendency to own small business. Despite this minorities vote Labour overwhelmingly. in 2010 they preferred labour 67& to 16%. They also vote less- 51% compared to 67% of white individuals in 2010.
Education seems like a more important factor- 75% to 75% .
