What undermines Democracy in Post-Soviet regions Flashcards
- What is the significance of the 2022 war in Ukraine in the context of the previous conflict that began in 2014?
The 2022 war in Ukraine marks a significant escalation of the conflict that began in 2014. On February 24, 2022, Russia initiated a “special military operation,” framing the objective as a countermeasure against NATO’s expansion and the U.S.’s growing influence in the region. Putin emphasized the defense of Donbas, as well as the demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine. This move followed years of tension between Russia and Ukraine, with the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Donbas setting the stage for the full-scale invasion.
What are the primary reasons for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
Personalist Authoritarianism: Putin’s regime is characterized by a system of loyalty, with decisions often made by “yes-men” around him, creating an environment where war serves as a means to solidify power and legitimacy.
Neo-Imperialism: The invasion reflects Russia’s desire to reassert itself as a great power and protect its geopolitical interests, with Ukraine being seen as an essential part of Russia’s historic and cultural sphere.
NATO Expansion: Russia views the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO as an existential threat, crossing a “red line” that had previously been ignored due to Russia’s weakened state post-Soviet Union collapse.
What is the significance of Russia’s propaganda and justification for “denazification” and “demilitarization”?
- Putin frames the war by claiming Ukraine was “created by Bolshevik, communist Russia” and needs “denazification.”
- This narrative justifies the invasion, suggesting the West is using Ukraine for its own interests.
- It casts Ukraine’s government as fascist, despite little far-right support in the country.
- The “denazification” argument aims to weaken the Ukrainian government, gain domestic support, and promote Russian imperialism.
- Russian media amplifies this, portraying the West as morally corrupt and Ukraine as rightful Russian territory.
- How did prior geopolitical developments contribute to the 2022 war in Ukraine?
Military Build-Ups (2021): Russia began deploying troops near Ukraine’s borders in early 2021, signaling growing tensions. In December 2021, Russia made demands for “security guarantees” from the West, including Ukraine’s commitment to not seek NATO membership.
Diplomatic Efforts: Biden-Putin summit in June 2021 failed to resolve key security concerns, paving the way for the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk by Russia in February 2022 and the eventual invasion
How does Blattman’s analysis of war motivations explain Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine?
Unchecked Interests and Nationalism: Nationalism, glory, or prestige, which are not accountable to the general population. Russia’s desire to assert dominance in the region.
Misperceptions and Bluffing: Russia underestimated Ukraine’s ability to resist and overestimated its military capabilities.
Credible Commitments: Previous successful interventions bolstered confidence in pursuing military action.
What have been the consequences of the war for Ukraine and Russia?
UKRAINE
- Destruction, civilian and military casualties, and a massive refugee crisis.
- Ukraine has gained support from NATO and the EU (military aid and imposed sanctions on Russia.)
RUSSIA
- Severe economic consequences (targeted Russian energy exports)
- Russia has also faced international isolation and increased opposition to its actions
- Gained some support from non-Western countries.
- Diminished its influence in the post-Soviet space, while the “Near Abroad” concept is now in flux as former Soviet states recalibrate their relationships with Moscow.
What is the main argument in Levitsky and Way’s chapter about the evolution of post-Soviet competitive authoritarianism?
Levitsky and Way argue that many post-Soviet states developed into “competitive authoritarian” regimes, where democratic institutions like elections and opposition parties exist but are manipulated to prevent genuine political competition. These regimes combine authoritarian practice with formal democratic structures, opposition can contest elections but rarely succeed.
How do external actors influence the evolution of competitive authoritarianism in post-Soviet states, according to Levitsky and Way?
External pressures to democratise led to the facade of democracy and not genuine democratic practices, as authoritarianism still continued…
In the form of competitive authoritarianism, electoral autocracy, etc
What role do elites play in sustaining competitive authoritarianism in post-Soviet states?
Elites, (former Soviet officials and oligarchs) consolidating power within competitive authoritarian regimes by controlling key resources (media outlets and state apparatus) to maintain their dominance.
What is Hale’s explanation for the absence of revolutions in post-Soviet presidential systems?
Patronalism meant that clients are loyal to their patrons and have a stake in the regime, thus preventing cohesive opposition revolutionary movements and maintaining authoritarian stability.
How does Hale contrast patronal politics with other forms of governance?
Hale contrasts patronal politics with other types of governance by explaining that patronal systems rely on informal networks of loyalty rather than formal democratic institutions. They often work to undermine democratic institutions.
What does Hale mean by the “great power of expectations” in patronal politics?
Hale’s “great power of expectations” explains how leaders in patronal regimes control what elites and the public expect from them. By giving out resources and benefits, leaders keep their supporters loyal. This helps maintain stability because both elites and citizens believe their loyalty will be rewarded, even during tough economic times or political dissatisfaction.
What is the relationship between patronal politics and state legitimacy in post-Soviet Eurasia, according to Hale?
Hale argues that in post-Soviet Eurasia, patronal politics plays a central role in both state legitimacy and stability. Although these regimes may lack strong democratic institutions, they are able to maintain a semblance of legitimacy by providing tangible benefits to elites and citizens through patronage. By managing expectations and ensuring loyalty through resource distribution, these regimes can weather economic and political challenges, preventing large-scale uprisings or revolutions.
What constitutional reforms occurred in Russia in 2020?
Presidential Term Limits: The reforms reset the clock on President Putin’s term limits, allowing him to potentially stay in power until 2036 by effectively removing the limit on consecutive presidential terms.
Strengthening Presidential Power: The changes gave the president more control over key decisions, including the ability to appoint judges and government officials without approval from parliament.
Priority of Russian Law: The reforms emphasized that Russian law takes precedence over international law, limiting the influence of foreign courts or agreements.
Social Benefits: The constitution was amended to include guarantees for pensions, healthcare, and a commitment to protect the traditional family.
These changes were seen as consolidating Putin’s power, reducing checks on his authority, and altering the political system to strengthen the executive branch.
