Week Six

Question 1

Prediction

Answer 1

A judgment made about an outcome before the outcome knowledge is known

Question 2

Profiling

Answer 2

Creating or writing an outline or article that describes a person

Question 3

Clinical intuition

Answer 3

“people with experience and expertise in the domain make intuitive prediction for individual cases” (Kim, 2017, p105)

Question 4

Statistical prediction

Answer 4

“prediction about a particular case are made solely on the basis of empirical evidence and/or a statistical comparison to data drawn from a large sample” (Kim, 2017, p105)

Question 5

Blind empiricism

Answer 5

States conditions when question is useful:
- A question is useful if people’s responses to a question can predict behaviours or disorders
- As long as a question can make accurate predictions, question is useful if not based on reason or on theory

Question 6

Which is more accurate: intuition or prediction?

Answer 6

“Mechanical predictions of human behaviours are equal or superior to clinical predictions (intuition) methods for a wide range of circumstances.” (Grove et al, 2009, p19)

Question 7

Why is clinical intuition inferior to mechanical prediction?

Answer 7

• Ignore base rates and prior probabilities
• Overreliance on the representativeness heuristic
• Overreliance on the availability heuristic
• Assign nonoptimal weights to cues

Question 8

Does expertise have any effect on validity of judgments?

Answer 8

There is no evidence that expertise has an effect on validity of judgments

Question 9

Predictor

Answer 9

• Information that people use as a signal to lead them to a decision
• The outcome of the decision is not known

Question 10

Validity

Answer 10

• Information that is correlated with the accuracy of a judgment or decision
• Using a valid predictor to make a decision is more likely to lead to a correct decision than using an invalid predictor

Question 11

What kind of feedback is useful?

Answer 11

• Corrective feedback on validity of predictors
• Direct attention away from invalid predictors
• Direct attention toward valid predictors

Question 12

How accurate are predictions of weather forecasters compared to computational or statistical predictions?

Answer 12

Weather forecasters are at least just as accurate as statistical models

Question 13

Why are weather forecasters more accurate than clinicians at making predictions?

Answer 13

• Consistent and immediate feedback about predictors
• Practice effects
• Easy-access to base-rate information

Question 14

Why are weather forecasters more accurate at predictions than clinical psychologists?

Answer 14

Task characteristics
- Consistent and immediate feedback about predictors
- Task predictability based on predictors
- High and precise quality of predictors
- Model that provides accurate forecasts