Week Five Flashcards
Hindsight Bias | SAFT and RAFT
1
Q
Hindsight bias
A
- Current bias toward previous probability and statistical judgements about past events
- Bias based on knowledge of actual outcomes
*a judgment was made prior to the event
2
Q
Creeping determinism
A
- “the relative view that an event is inevitable”
- another word for hindsight bias
3
Q
Memory paradigm
A
- Estimate probability of possible outcomes for a future event
- Event occurs
- Recall the probability that was estimated for each possible outcome
4
Q
Is there evidence for hindsight bias (creeping determinism)?
A
- There is evidence for hindsight bias
- Recalled probabilities were biased for “creeping” toward the probability of the actual outcome
5
Q
Selective activation, reconstruction and anchoring (SARA)
A
- Selective activation of relevant information
- Outcome for the original prediction is also activated
- Reconstruction of original prediction using activated information
- “anchored” toward probability of the known outcome
6
Q
Probability cue
A
- A cue that might use based on how likely the cue will lead to a correct or optimal decision
- “pieces of information that correlate with the judgement people are trying to make”
7
Q
Cue value
A
The value associated with each item being compared based on the criteria set by the probability cue
8
Q
Take-The-Best
A
- A prescriptive strategy
- Search for the probability cue that can differentiate between the two items that are compared
- Start search based on how likely the cue can lead to a correct decision
- Probability cue is found choose item with the higher cue value
9
Q
Reconstruction after feedback with take-the-best (RAFT)
A
- Apply the take-the-best strategy
- Estimate the probability that the probability cue will lead to the optimal decision
- Consider feedback based on the outcome of prediction
- Include feedback and re-estimate the probability that the probability cue will lead to the optimal decision
