Week 9: Risk Analysis Flashcards
What is the importance of risk analysis?
1.) Understanding the consequences and uncertainties
2.) Systematise and describe the knowledge and lack of knowledge \
3.) Identify factors, conditions, activities, system that are critical with respect to risks
4.) Compare different alternatives and solutions
What are the steps for the risk process?
- Planning
- Risk Assessment
- Risk Treatment
What are the steps for the risk assessment?
- Identify the risk
- Cause analysis
- Consequence analysis
- Uncertainties
- Evaluate whether the risk is acceptable
What are the steps for Decision Making with Uncertainty?
1.) Situation
2.) Goal-setting, preferences, and performance measures
3.) Decision criteria
4.) Review and judgement by the decision-maker
What are the two types of risks?
1.) Direct risks
2.) Indirect risks - mental health, migration, social wellbeing, and cohesion.
How to avoid surprises?
- Provide an overview of the assumptions made (list the background knowledge, methods, etc. used in the assessment)
- Assess the risk from deviations to those assumptions (sensitivity)
- Try to reduce the assumptions that have the largest impact on the risk
- Engage a range of individuals and perspectives in the process