Week 7

Question 1

Tufte main point

Answer 1

-Electoral-economic cycle: The Economy is better on years that there is an election Pre-election economy stimulation Changes in real disposable income have a political relevance Upswings in real disposable income per capita are highly correlated with greater electoral support for incumbents.
-Incumbents may seek to determine the location and timing of economic benefits in promoting the fortunes of their party and friends
Incumbents’ politicians desire re-election and they believe that a booming pre-election economy will help to achieve it.

Question 2

Other factors not considered in Tufte

Answer 2

-Congress writes tax policy
Prior to the election
Congress/ president
Problems: divided control in congress

-Other political factors that will affect the state of the economy
Tariffs
State
global

Question 3

Abramowitz

Answer 3

Independent (The things that are doing the predicting) and dependent (what you are predicting) variables

Independent: time incumbent has held office (8+ time for a change)
Dependent: The popular vote
Independent: Once a party is in control over 8 its likely for the party to change

Question 4

Forecasting/predictive model of outcome (not necessarily
explanatory model)

Answer 4

Explanatory mode: You know the underlying dynamics (more valuable for political scientists)
Predictive: useful for the political world and to predict