Week 6 Flashcards
what sort of evidence marks Aldrich’s analysis of nomination politics.
-Dynamic, “time-dependent” model, to explain the entire campaign – and how the field winnows
Premised on a reciprocal relationship between resources and success
Some resources constants, but others are time variable: money, media attention, volunteers…
- Success will generate more resources, but success is measured relative to the expectations. And having resources will contribute to higher expectations
* The field itself is marked by winnowing, due to the dynamics of some candidate with momentum (positive spiral, where in the gather resources at a greater rate) and others with decay (in a negative spiral)
- By the end of the article, multi-candidate races are very unstable and will quickly window to two.
Rational choice approach
Deductive:Draws out expectations from cases (deductive)
Inductive (Rice) looks at data and then draws generalizations
Candidates’ resources
-Constant
Ideology
Eloquence
-Time variable resources
Money
Media
Attention
Schwarz
- EC was never intended to ELECT the pres
- No agreement on alternative
Note that the 2016 election outcome (w/ Clinton winning the popular vote and Trump the EC vote), as well as the Electoral College-related unrest after 2020 have further underscored concerns with the Electoral College.
The most important strategic aspects of a general election campaign
-Involve navigating the Electoral College
(how to compete in and win the handful of swing states that will decide the election);
-Campaign finance
-Building a winning coalition of voters (how to appeal to key demographic groups, including independents, women, and the growing Latino voting bloc, in swing states);
-Media and communication strategies (how to shape a positive campaign narrative amid the ever-changing and hyper-competitive media environment);
-Debate performances (how to enhance a candidate’s image and, perhaps more importantly, to do no harm to one’s campaign),
-Selecting a running mate (balancing the ticket in a way that unites the party and may appeal to undecided voters).
Sketch of EC mechanics
Electoral votes apportioned to states w/ formula
#Hs + 2 (and DC gets 3)
* Total of 538 (i.e., 270 majority)
* States allocate electoral votes to candidates (WTA all but ME and NE)
(Nelson chap 8)
Indirect process of choosing the President
election of Electors:
-Each state is allocated a certain number of electors based on its representation in Congress
-. The political parties in each state nominate a group of electors, typically loyal party members, to represent them in the Electoral College if their candidate wins the popular vote in that state.
How does the electoral college work?
- Party nomination
Caucus and Primaries - General election
Electoral vote
why 538?
He total of 538 is based on the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 100 seats in the Senate, and the 3 votes given to the District of Columbia
why is the EC indirect
Slavery
They thought the public was not competent to make such a choice
Why is the EC good
Decreases the possibility of fraud
Under the electoral college a popular vote can be an electoral vote loser
Why the EC is bad
-Advocates for eliminating the Electoral College argue that it is no longer necessary since voters now have the information needed to make an informed decision
-some states benefit unduly from the system; that different states use different methods for selecting electors
-It distorts the campaign process by giving tossup states excessive importance
-Gives small states a disproportionate number of votes
-Many people dont have a clue how it works
