Week 2 - Improving pandemic Response

Question 1

Why is modeling integral to the COVID-19 response?

Answer 1

Improves situational awareness, informs evidence base for mitigation strategies, and synthesizes and assesses epi characteristics that were important for understanding the use and impact of mitigation measures

Question 2

List the 4 modeling approaches

Answer 2

• Statistical/phenomenological: model association between predictive variables (past data, weather) and future disease incidence
• Mechanistic: model mechanisms of disease transmission
• Ensembles: incorporate both approaches
• Data sources: CDC, social media, weather

Question 3

What is the “gold standard” model?

Answer 3

NONE

Modeler’s decide the best approach given the situation

Question 4

Are short term or long term forecasts more accurate?

Answer 4

Short term! No long term forecast achieves target calibration

Question 5

Who tends to drive the conversation on modeling?

Answer 5

“The person with the loudest microphone”

*They’re not always accurate!