week 2 Flashcards
What did Manabe and Wetherald do?
made the first climate model experiment of Co2 doubling
- had a single coloum for the atmosphere
calculated about 2.4oc global warming
What is the charney report
Rising scientific concern about the effects of Co2 doubling
probability of global warming for a doubling of Co2 to be near 3oc with a probable error of 1.5oc
understood that most extra emissions caused a strengthening of the gh effect
had the same estimate as the IPCC report this year
What is the IPCC goal
provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and the potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts
what do the IPCC do and produce?
review and assess the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide to understand cc
produces assessment reports by thousands of volunteer scientists who are selected by the IPCC bureau following government nomination
aim to be policy-releavant not policy-prescriptive
transparent
- 2x stages of open international review - each comment is document and responded to by lead authors
- each chapter is reviewed
has calibrated uncertainty language
What is the structure of the IPCC
IPCC Plenary - open to WMO and UNEP member countries - governments play a high level in this process - member states can also make special reports on topics of interest
IPCC bureau - co-chairs of the working group elected by the plenary
IPCC Secretariat - based at the WMO in Geneva
Working Group 1- scientific basis
Working Group 2- impacts vulnerability and adaption
Working Group 3 - mitigation
Task force on national GHG inventories
What does virtually certian mean?
> 99% probability
What does extremely likely mean
> 95% probability
What does very likely mean
> 90% probability
What does likely mean
> 65% probability
What were the AR6 statements on human influence?
“it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land”
“human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extreme in every region across the globe”
What is the AR process?
Scope
- outline is drafted and developed by govt nominated specialists
Approval of outline
- the pannel approves
nomination of authors
- govts and observers nominate expert authors
Selection of authors
- Bureau selects authors
Expert Review 1st order draft
- reviewed by experts
Govt and Expert Review
- draft the summary for the policy makers
Final draft and SPM
Govt review of final draft
Approval and acceptance of report
- Working group and pannel accept the final draft
Publication of the draft
What is the UNFCCC
United National Framework Convention on Climate Change
- international environmental treaty adopted in rio de Janero May 1992
aim= stabilize ghg concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
no binding emissions or enforcement mechanism
What has been successful from the Cops and which ones
Generally they are imperfect treaties but they focus the attention on the issue, annual opportunity to focus and get media attention
COP3 1997 - Kyoto - the Kyoto Protocol
COP21 2015 Paris - the pairs agreement
What is the Kyoto Protocol
First implementation of the UNFCCC’s objective
common but differentiated responsibility
= puts the obligation to reduce current emissions on developed countries on the basis that they are historically responsible for the current levels of GHG in the atmosphere
- Binding emissions targets - 5% relative to 1990 by 2012
-18% relative to 1990 by 2020
emissions are monitored and there are enforcements mechanisms
US has not ratified and Canada has withdrawn
What it the paris agreement?
hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2oc above pre-industrial levels
countries determine their own mitigation strategies - no binding emissions targets or enforcement mechanisms
based on actual emissions reductions pledges is an important distinguished
