Week 11 - Judgement, Decisions, and Reasoning Flashcards
The availability heuristic
States that events that more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled
Illusory correlations
occur when a relationship between two events appears to exist, but in reality, there is no relationship or the relationship is much weaker than it is assumed to be.
representativeness heuristic
states that the likelihood that an instance is a member of a larger category depends on how well that instance resembles properties we typically associate with that category.
The base rate (df)
is the relative proportion of different classes in the population
conjunction rule
which states that the probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (A alone or B alone)
law of large numbers
states that the larger the number of individuals that are ran-domly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
myside bias
When people evaluate evidence in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
confirmation bias
which occurs when people look for information that conforms to their hypothesis and ignore informa-tion that refutes it.
backfire effect
When an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually be-come stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint (e.g. conservative people and WMD case)
belief bias
tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable.
A mental model
a specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning.
categorical syllogisms
Syllogisms in which the premises and conclusion are statements that begin with All, No, or Some.
An example of a valid categorical syllogism is the following:
Premise 1: All birds are animals. (All A are B)
Premise 2: All animals eat food. (All B are C)
Conclusion: Therefore, all birds eat food. (All A are C)
Conditional syllogisms
have two premises and a conclusion like categorical syllogisms, but the first premise has the form “If … then.”
Valid:
Modus ponens - if A then B, A, B
Modus tollens - if A then B, not B, not A
Invalid:
If A then B, not A, not B
If A then B, B, A
Wason four-card problem
Four cards are shown. Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other side. Your task is to indicate which cards you would need to turn over to test the following rule:
If there is a vowel on one side of the card, then there is an even number on the other side.
falsification principle
To test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
permission schema
states that if a person satisfies a specific condition (being of legal drinking age), then he or she gets to carry out an action (being served alcohol).
The assumption of expected utility theory
assumes that people are basically rational
expected emotions
emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome
risk aversion
the tendency to avoid taking risks.
Incidental emotions
emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision
status quo bias
The tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision.
framing effect
decisions are influenced by how the choices are stated, or framed
neuroeconomics
combines research from the fields of psychology, neuroscience, and economics to study how brain activation is related to decisions that involve potential gains or losses
dual systems approach to thinking
the idea that there are two mental systems—a fast, automatic, intuitive system, which Kahneman calls
System 1, which may have seduced you into the 10 cent answer, and a slower, more deliberative, thoughtful system called
System 2, which you would have used if you had thought about the problem more carefully
