Week 10

Question 1

How do we known what the future of our climate is? What is the problem with these predictions?

Answer 1

We use climate models

• Reconstruct climate during intervals of different GHG levels
• Large amount of uncertainty

Question 2

List some time periods which may resemble past and future climate under varying CO2 content (2)

Answer 2

Cretaceous period, resembles high CO2 concentration, can be used to predict green house effect
- Glaciation period, can be used to predict low CO2 concentrations icehouse effect

Question 3

Differntiate between simulation, prediction and projections (use detail)

Answer 3

Simulation - model based representation of the temporal behavior of the climate system under specified external forcing and boundary conditions

• Prediction - Statement about the fuure of the climate system encompassing both forced and internally generated components
• Projection climate simulations that extends into the future based on a scenario of future external forcings

Question 4

What is a RCP and what is the importance with respect to future climate projections

Answer 4

Representative concentration pathway scenarios

- Scenarios that specify GHG concentrations and corresponding emissions, Range from best case to worst case scenarios.

Question 5

Why do we use models and scenarios?

Answer 5

To map out a range of possible futures/uncertainties for our planet.

Question 6

Uncertainties is a very important aspect of what? (3)

Answer 6

Socioeconomic development, physical system understanding and our plausible future.

Question 7

What are the feed back cycles and how will they effect the earths climate? (4)

Answer 7

1. Water vapour, positive feedback increase temp.
2. Snow albedo, Positive feed back (increase temp)
3. Ice albedo (positive feedback) increase temp
4. Cloud albedo, both negative and positive, uncertain.

Question 8

What are some factors which effect the future of CO2 emissions? (3)

Answer 8

1. Increased population
2. Increased demand
3. Efficiency of use

Question 9

When and Where do we observe the greatest changes in temperature?

Answer 9

High latitudes, especially over the winter months.

Winters become shorter and summers become longer

Question 10

What is the predictions for the air temperature and percipitation in the future? (3)

Answer 10

• Temp will rise 1.5 degrees celcius
• Artic region will warm more rapidly than the global mean
• Precipitation changes will not be uniform, stronger contrast between wet and dry regions

Question 11

What would be the main contributor of Sea level rise in the Future?

Answer 11

Thermal expansion.

Also ice melting and rebounding of the crust.