Week 1: Causation (LR)

Question 1

In Causal Arguments…

(1)The author will make a curious comparison.

(2)There are usually multiple ways to explain this comparison, but the author chooses one way.

In these causal reasoning problems, we have to….

• (3) assess the plausibility of the author’s explanation / interpretation of this curious comparison.
  • OR
• (4) put together a chain of causality based on what’s said in the stimulus.

Question 2

1. Curious Comparison

When the author of the stimulus makes a “curious comparison” he’s drawing a _____________ between two things (e.g. x and y). It’s usually an asymmetric, whacky comparison.

This is usually a ____________, and the author will lead with…

A ____________ correlation.

• people who are X _________ to be Y.
• people who are X are ________ __________ to be Y.

Or a _____________ correlation.

• Before/After Correlation
  • After we raised the speed limit, the traffic fatalities went down. (After X _____________, Y started _____________).
  • The % of X went from this to that.
• Simultaneous Correlation
  • Tommy’s Taxi started offering free breath mints around the same time that Uber’s drivers did.

Answer 2

connection

correlation

Statistical

tend

more likely

Temporal

happened; happening

Question 3

2. Multiple Ways to Explain the the Curious Comparison.

Like it was said, there are multiple ways to explain a curious connection, but the author chooses one way.

You have to remember, that where the author makes this explanation/interpretation of the curious comparison is usually in the ______________. He will draw a _____________ ______________.

Answer 3

conclusion; causal conclusion

Question 4

Causal Flaws

Answer 4

• When the author says there’s only one explanation. That’s wrong when there are easily multiple explanations for the curious comparison.
• Reverse Causality: e.g. y ⊃ x.
• Third Factor Causes x and y: z ⊃ x + y
• Bad Data (unrepresentative sample)

Question 5

Causal Indicators

Answer 5

• Leads to
• Promotes
• Contributes
• Influences

Question 6

3. Assessing Plausibility

You need to assess the author’s conclusion and evidence.

When you’re assessing the evidence, ask yourself “is there any alternative explanation/interpretation for this?”

• Is there actually ____________ causality?
• Is there a _________ factor that causes x and y?

When you’re assessing the conclusion, ask yourself “what is the plausibility of this conclusion?”

• No cause, no effect
• More cause, more effect
• Causal Mechanism
  • AC that explains how the cause leads to the effect.
• Establish a Difference
  • There’s a distinction, if the author needs there to be some distinction.

Answer 6

reverse

third

Question 7

Correct Answer Tendencies (behind Causal questions)

                              Nec. Assumption    Evaluate       Flaw

Strengthen Weaken
______________________________________________________________
Plausibility of author’s possible alternate
storyline storyline

Question 8

4. Causal Chain

If you’re not facing a question about the plausibility of the author’s curious comparison, then you’ll be asked (need) to create a ____________ chain between the statements in the stimulus.

Answer 8

causal

Question 9

In conditional logic if ____ happens, then ___ happens. What’s illegal to do in this sense is commit a mistaken ____________, where if ~___ happens, then ~____ happens.

In causality however, things are different. A causes B, so you can, therefore, legitimately say if there’s no cause (no A), there’s no B.

Answer 9

a; b; negation; a; b

Question 10

Causal word indicators:

Answer 10

because of
due to
resulted in
leads to
lowers
promotes
led to
inhibits
raises
deters
encourages
influences
contributes to
a factor in
“due to this”
“this allows”
“this leads to”
“this makes possible”
“as a result”
“consequently”
“accordingly”
etc.