Voting patterns Flashcards
What are the long term trends for voting behaviour (6)
- Class alignment
- Partisan alignment
- Regional Voting
- Age
- Gender
- Ethnic groups
Class voting
Certain classes have a connection with specific political parties and will principally vote for them
Class alignment definition + example
refers to individuals identifying with certain classes
-The 1950s were a high point for partisan alignment, since then there has been a blurring of class identification (Rising aspirational middle class) e.g 1979 election
Partisan alignment
refers to the attachment that exists between an individual and a certain political party
Relationship between class and partisan alignment
Normally coexist alongside each other. As people stop identifying with a social class, they stop identifying with a political party
Regional voting + example
- closely associated with class, parties having electoral heartlands and electoral desserts
- SNP won 56/59 Scottish Westminster seats in the 2015 general election
Age influence + example
- Trends show young people tend to vote Labour. Could be attributed to older people having greater interest in maintaining the status quo
- 27% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative in the 2017 election, compared to 47% of 65+
Ethnic groups voting behaviour + stats
Ethnic groups more likely to vote Labour, overlap with class, as poorer ethnic minority groups favour labour
-Approx. 60-70% of BAME voters, voted Labour in the last 4 elections
What are the short term factors that affect voting behaviour (6)
Rational Choice theory, Issue voting, Valence, Party leader, Governing competency and Economic management
Rational choice theory
Voters act like individual consumers, choosing the party they believe will best benefit them. Therefore, successful parties are able to adapt their policies to ones that are popular with most of the electorate.
Rational choice theory- EXAMPLE
E.g in 1979, Thatcher changed the Con. Parties polies, as did Blair for New Labour in 1997
Issue voting
voters make decisions on a range of issues, and convert the preference of an issue into a vote for the party.
Counter to Issue Voting + example
issue voting is problematic as it relies on a high level of political engagement from voters, also is not particularly good at explaining voting patterns
-1987 and 1992, voters preferred Labour policies but the Conservatives won the elections.
Valence definition
idea that people support the party best able to deliver on issues they care about. Care about policies and how much they trust a party to deliver these policies.
Valence example
2017- many voters questioned whether Labour could deliver economic prosperity, even though they liked their policies of abolishing tuition fees, renationalising industries and giving the NHS more funding
Party leader significance + example
charisma and personality of party leaders is crucial to party’s success. Often seen as the face of their party
-1997 election, voters preferred the young, energetic Blair contrasted against Major.
Governing competency definition
assessment of how effective a party has been in government with their; control of events, policy and Party unity/strong leadership
Control of events example
Major’s government lost in 1997, when voters felt they were stumbling from one crisis to another, unable to control events
Government competency of policy example
Thatcher government stuck firmly to its promises to change the economic model and was rewarded with electoral success
Party unity and strong leadership example
Labour Party under Blair shows how voters reward the party who have a clear vision and a united party
Economic management significance to voters
Voters are more likely to support a party that they feel is able to deliver economic prosperity. Equally voters are less likely to support a governing party which they feel has been responsible for mismanaging the economy
Economic management example in influencing voters (2)
- 1978 ‘winter of discontent’ played a key role in Thatcher’s victory in 1979.
- In 2010, Conservatives were able to blame Labour under Brown for the 2008 financial crisis.
