Voting Bhaviour & GE Case Studies Flashcards
Who won 3 elections in a row for conservatives
Thatcher was able to win three consecutive elections for the Conservative Party by attracting significant working class support.
Who won 3 elections in a row for labour
Blair managed to by attracting significant middle class support
Red wall 2019
Large number of voters in the traditionally Labour ‘red wall’ switching to the Conservatives for the first time in 2019.
Partisanship remains important for some voters e.g.
Liverpool continue to have very strong support for Labour.
Whose more likely to vote conservative
Older voters or those in the South East may feel that the Conservative Party represents them better and vote for them because they have policies that benefit them.
2019
% of 18-29 year olds voting conservative vs over 60’s
In 2019, 22% of the 18-29 year olds voted conservative, whilst over 60% of over 60’s did
How many percentage points higher was the turnout for the 65+ age group in 2017 than among 18-24 year olds
25 percentage points higher
In 1997 Blair picked up many seats…..
1997 Blair was able to pick up many middle class seats from the tories
In 2010 the SNP shattered…….
In 2010, the SNP shattered Labours dominance in Scotland
In 2019 what % of AB voted conservative
What about in 1964
In 2019, 42% of those in the AB category voted conservative compared to 78% in 1964
In 2019, what % of the DE category voted Labour compared to 1964
34% compared to 64%
EU referendum - education impact
in the EU referendum those without qualifications went 75% for Brexit, whilst those with university degrees went 75%
Degree or higher on 2019 general election
In the 2019 election, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted for Labour, 17% for Lib Dem’s and 29% for the conservatives
2019 GE GCSE or lower eduction
58% voted conservative
Ethnicity 2019 GE
64% of BME voters voted for Labour whilst just 20% voted for conservatives but turnout lower among BME
Gender
Women used to be more likely to vote conservative but now the influence of gender is marginal.
More of a difference between the young though.
In 2019, in the 18-24 age group, the conservatives won just 15% of women, but 28% of men.
2019 general election Brexit influence statistics
2019 general election - 74% of leave voters voted for the tories, whilst 49% of remain voters voted labour.
Valence factors
Became more important in the 2010 and 2015 election, when there were fewer policy differences between the parties.
Presidentialisation
Commentators have talked about the ‘presidentialisation’ of British politics since the 1979 election, with the suggestions being that UK election campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters perceptions of leading figures.
Gov competence example
Tories were thrown out in 1997 having dropped behind in the polls ever since Black Wednesday in 1992 which wrecked their reputation of being economically competent.
Media having an impact on elections e.g.
In 2019, Johnson refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, fearing the impact a mishap could have on the campaign.
Newspapers bias example tories
Tory party launched their manifesto in the telegraph newspaper in the 2019 election
Newspaper bias example labour
Daily mail published a front page with the headline “Corbin” and attacked Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party