Voting Bhaviour & GE Case Studies Flashcards
Who won 3 elections in a row for conservatives
Thatcher was able to win three consecutive elections for the Conservative Party by attracting significant working class support.
Who won 3 elections in a row for labour
Blair managed to by attracting significant middle class support
Red wall 2019
Large number of voters in the traditionally Labour ‘red wall’ switching to the Conservatives for the first time in 2019.
Partisanship remains important for some voters e.g.
Liverpool continue to have very strong support for Labour.
Whose more likely to vote conservative
Older voters or those in the South East may feel that the Conservative Party represents them better and vote for them because they have policies that benefit them.
2019
% of 18-29 year olds voting conservative vs over 60’s
In 2019, 22% of the 18-29 year olds voted conservative, whilst over 60% of over 60’s did
How many percentage points higher was the turnout for the 65+ age group in 2017 than among 18-24 year olds
25 percentage points higher
In 1997 Blair picked up many seats…..
1997 Blair was able to pick up many middle class seats from the tories
In 2010 the SNP shattered…….
In 2010, the SNP shattered Labours dominance in Scotland
In 2019 what % of AB voted conservative
What about in 1964
In 2019, 42% of those in the AB category voted conservative compared to 78% in 1964
In 2019, what % of the DE category voted Labour compared to 1964
34% compared to 64%
EU referendum - education impact
in the EU referendum those without qualifications went 75% for Brexit, whilst those with university degrees went 75%
Degree or higher on 2019 general election
In the 2019 election, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted for Labour, 17% for Lib Dem’s and 29% for the conservatives
2019 GE GCSE or lower eduction
58% voted conservative
Ethnicity 2019 GE
64% of BME voters voted for Labour whilst just 20% voted for conservatives but turnout lower among BME
Gender
Women used to be more likely to vote conservative but now the influence of gender is marginal.
More of a difference between the young though.
In 2019, in the 18-24 age group, the conservatives won just 15% of women, but 28% of men.
2019 general election Brexit influence statistics
2019 general election - 74% of leave voters voted for the tories, whilst 49% of remain voters voted labour.
Valence factors
Became more important in the 2010 and 2015 election, when there were fewer policy differences between the parties.
Presidentialisation
Commentators have talked about the ‘presidentialisation’ of British politics since the 1979 election, with the suggestions being that UK election campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters perceptions of leading figures.
Gov competence example
Tories were thrown out in 1997 having dropped behind in the polls ever since Black Wednesday in 1992 which wrecked their reputation of being economically competent.
Media having an impact on elections e.g.
In 2019, Johnson refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, fearing the impact a mishap could have on the campaign.
Newspapers bias example tories
Tory party launched their manifesto in the telegraph newspaper in the 2019 election
Newspaper bias example labour
Daily mail published a front page with the headline “Corbin” and attacked Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party
Media setting agenda
The media can be important in setting the agenda of elections such as “the Brexit” election in 2019
1979 GE: why was it called
Callaghan’s minority government lost a vote of no confidence in the HoC
1979 GE: turnout
76%
1979 GE: who won and by what majority
Thatcher won a majority of 43 and 43.6% of the popular vote
1979 GE: how many seats did labour lose and the conservatives gain
Labour lost 50 seats
Tories gained 62 seats
1979 GE: how many seats did the liberals win and what % of the vote
11 seats
13.8% of the vote
1979 GE: what happened in the early months of 1979
The winter of discontent - the governments attempts to impose a 5% limit on pay increases collapsed as a series of strikes happened. led to a sense of national paralysis and of labour incompetence in being unable to control militant trade unions
MEDIA SHOWED IMAGES OF A MISERABLE, STRIKE-BOUND BRITAIN.
1979 GE: Conservative Party slogan
Labour isn’t working
1979 GE: political context
The Labour Party looked weak as the election was triggered by withdrawal of support from nationalist parties after the result of referendums of Scottish and welsh devolution went against the government. This left the Labour Party with no majority.
1979 GE: social factors
- conservatives dominated upper and middle classes, whilst also making gains among the working classes for the first time winning 11% of C2 and 9% of DE.
- suggests a decline of the importance of class and social factors.
1979 GE: rational choice and issue voting
Conservatives’ manifesto of tax cuts and the right to buy scheme offered a radical change to voters following the post-war consensus.
There was mention of returning recently nationalised industries to private hands and removing trade union powers.
1979 GE: the campaign
- Labour stated way behind but made up a little ground, not enough though.
- conservatives adopted many of the techniques of modern advertising under the guidance of two publicity specialists.
- thatcher successfully used photo opportunities, including holding a newborn calf, and sought to present herself effectively in the media.
1979 GE: key points
- wider social, political and economic context was important, as well as perceived competence.
- leadership played less of a role
- class was important, but less so than previously
- campaign had little impact on the result
- rational choice and issue voting can be seen as important, as the conservatives were offering a real change.
1997 GE: the result
New Labour’s landslide victory removed the conservatives from office for the first time in 18 years and opened the way for 13 years of Labour government. Blair was Prime Minister until 2007, when he was replaced by Brown.
1997 GE: who emerged as a significant third force in Westminster
Liberal Democrat’s
Won 16.8% of the vote and 46 seats
1997 GE: turnout
71.4%
1997 GE: labour majority and proportion of the vote
Majority of 179
43.2% of the vote
1997 GE: conservative % of the vote
Only won 30.7% of the vote (worst election result since 1832)
1997 GE: declining importance of class
Labour won a significant amount of middle class voters across the country, including in the Tory heartlands of the South East.
1997 GE: rational choice and issue voting
- Blair drove forward the policy of modernisation and abandoned old fashioned policies such as nationalisation, tax-increases and the strengthening of Trade Union powers
- ‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’
- another of labours policies, constitutional reform, gave the party common ground with the Lib Dem’s
1997 GE: leadership
- Blair was popular across the country and was seen as a strong, competent and charismatic leader with a clear vision and control over his party.
- contrasted with Major, who was seen as a weak, boring leader presiding over a party divided over Europe and tainted by ‘sleaze’ and the cash for questions scandal.
1997 GE: perceived competence
Labour couldn’t have won on such a large scale without the damage the conservatives inflicted on themselves after the 1992 election.
By 1997, the economy was recovering from the recession of the early part of the decade, but voters didn’t give Conservative’s credit for this, rather they remembered the catastrophe of ‘Black Wednesday’ in September 1992.
1997 GE: media
Labour won endorsement of the greater part of the press, including the sun and the times. ‘The Sun Backs Blair’
1997 GE: social factors
Labour gained amongst most groups in the population
Gained among all classes, especially the middle classes
They won among white voters and BME voters
1997 GE: key points
- the ability of New Labour to win middle class voters was very important. Labour moving their policy to occupy middle ground.
- conservatives wrecked their image as the party of economic competence
- leadership was important
2019 GE: who was it called by
Boris Johnson in order to try and secure support for the Withdrawal Agreement he had negotiated with the EU. The current parliament wasn’t passing it so he had to go to the country. Led with the slogan ‘get Brexit done’
2019 GE: landslide
First landslide election in nearly 20 years, with the conservatives winning an 80 seat majority (highest percentage of any party since Thatcher was first elected in 1979.
Gains were in large part due to their ability to break the ‘Red Wall’
2019 GE: how many seats did labour win
202
It’s lowest since 1935, with 40% of the vote
2019 GE: how much did the Lib Dem’s increase their vote share by
1.1.6% but won just 11 seats - leader Jo Swindon failed to win her seat
2019 GE: issue voting
Brexit
Conservative Party led with the slogan ‘get Brexit done’, whilst the Labour Party supported a second referendum on Brexit.
Elsewhere in policy, labour was seen as far too radical and not trusted with the economy, due to its very left wing manifesto. Corbyn was presented and seen by many as unfit to govern.
2019 GE: leadership was key
Jeremy Corbyn was unprecedentedly unpopular as a leader. He took no position no Brexit.
Media was very critical of Corbyn
Boris Johnson was also very popular and able to reach beyond the Conservative party’s core vote in a way few conservatives were able to do.
2019 GE: campaign
- little impact. Conservative Party started with a dominant lead in the polls and it never really wavered.
2019 GE: media
- there were two tv debates between the two leaders, but neither had a significant impact on voters’ opinions, with neither leader performing particularly well.
2019 GE: social factors
- conservatives relieved significant numbers of working class votes due in large part to Brexit.
BEFORE THE ELECTION 17 TORT SEATS WERE AMONG THE 25% MOST DEPRIVED IN ENGLAND, WHILST IN 2019 IT INCREASED TO 35.
- Conservative Party broke the red wall
- SNPs dominance strengthened winning 48/56 seats
2019 GE: % of vote for tories over 60’s and over 70’s
Tories won 57% of the vote among over 60’s and 67% among over 70’s.
2019 GE: degrees or higher vote
43% Labour
17% Lib Dem’s
29% Conservatives
