Voting Behaviour And General Election Case Studies Flashcards
How class and social status used to be key to determining general election results.
- up until early 1970’s voting behaviour was strongly influenced by class and social status. Most working class voted labour, upper and middle conservatives.
- class voting was strongly influenced by self interest, with each party defined by protecting and representing different classes.
Class dealignment
- since the 1970’s a process known as ‘class dealignment’ has occurred, where class began to lose its importance as a determinant of voting behaviour. E.g. thatcher was able to win three consecutive elections for the Conservative Party by attracting significant working class support.
- influenced by society - increasing affluence and less pronounced difference between the classes along with all parties changing their policies to try and appeal to all classes so that they can win elections.
Used to be a great deal of partisanship
- in the post WWII period, voters has strong affiliations with and attachments to political parties, which were part of voters’ identities.
Partisan dealignment and attachment
- began declining in the 1970’s and 80’s and have continued to decline in the the 21st century.
- now a lot more swing voters
- in the 21st century significant sections of the electorate are also apathetic and disaffected by politics, as seen in decreasing turnouts at general elections.
Social factors influencing voting behaviour
- social factors are highly useful for predicting and understanding voting behaviour, but they shouldn’t be seen as causal factors in themselves.
- social factors are likely to become less useful predictors of voting behaviour if the policies of the main parties are close to each other and therefore don’t significantly appeal differently to different groups, such as was the case in 2010 and 2015.
Age - voting behaviour
- age is a very key determinant of voting choice in the UK elections. In 2017 YouGov called it the “new dividing line in British politics”.
- orders are more likely to vote Conservative, whilst younger voters are much likely to vote Labour.
- voters have always become more conservative as they get older, however research is suggesting that millennials aren’t following suit, which is a big problem for the Conservative Party.
Turnout for age
Turnout much higher for older voters- benefits the conservatives party
Region
- traditionally, the Labour heartlands were in the North, parts of Wales and in Scotland whilst the Tory heartlands were in the South East and East Midlands.
Class and social status
- today, class is of limited importance as a determinant of voting behaviour.
Rational choice and issue based voting
Voters behave like consumes by looking at the available options and evaluating which is the most beneficial for them. This explains why homeowners are more likely to vote Conservative whilst renters are more likely to vote labour.
Issue based voting is very similar to rational choice in that it suggests voters vote based on policy, but it is different in suggesting that voters vote based on which party is closest to them on policy they deem most important, even if they aren’t aligned with the party’s other policies.
Valence factors
Valence issues are when there isn’t significant disagreement between parties and voters therefore choose based on which party they think is going to be most effective in government.
When valence issue are more significant, social issues are likely to be less significant.
Leadership
- public image has become more important in recent decades as politics has become increasingly personalised.
- however, influence of leaders can be overstated, as local MPs, partisanship, events, issues and social factors can be seen as more important.
Competence
The performance of the current government is an important factor, as voters can pass judgement on their performance in power.
Perceived competence of other parties also plays a key role.
Issues and events
Such as splits within parties or wider social and economic developments such as the performance of the economy, key natural disasters or foreign policy issues.
Campaigns
- publish manifestos and make active efforts on the ground and in the media to win over voters
- many voters only pay attention during election campaigns - can be seen as highly important
- on the other hand, importance can be overstated as many voters will have already made up their mind and don’t make voting choices based on short-term events.
