Voting behaviours within social groups Flashcards
What are the differences between the traditional groupings European parties drew their support from as opposed to the way US parties have done it?
in Europe party support was usually drawn from distinct social classes but the two main US parties have always been loose coalitions, bringing together different racial, social, regional and religious groupings.
Which groups did the Democrats embrace after the 1932 realigning election?
The Dems victories were based around the ‘New Deal coalition’ the coalitions was built in the midst of economic depression. These people liked the way Roosevelt was dealing with the depression.
It embraced:
- industrial workers
- Roman Catholics- due to democrat support for Irish and Italian migrants in the 19th century
- Jews
- African Americans (although those in the south were often denied their votes)
- white southerners - due to civil war
the rust belt, dust belt and African Americans short to dems in the 30’s
What was the South referred to as before the 1960’s?
the solid south
-solidly voted democrat
vote as you shot mentality
What happened to the Democrat party in the 1960’s?
the success of the civil rights movement and turmoil of the Vietnam war led the party to liberalism. It became increasingly associated with new social movements. This alienated blue collar workers
Why was there a realigning election in 1972?
1964 Civil Rights Act
LBJ ‘we have lost the South for a generation.’
In 1968 Wallace won 45 ECVs in the South, he wanted to reinstate segregation
In 1972 Nixon’s ‘southern strategy’ won over the south, ‘dog whistle’ racism
When did men shift to the GOP?
80’s
What point lead did Obama have among women? men?
women 13 point lead
men 1 point lead
Who won men in 2016? who won women? by what percentage point lead
Hillary 12 point lead on women
Trump 12 point lead on men
Did Reagan win men and women?
yes both
Obama also won both
What are the reasons for the gender voting gap ?
- GOP opposes abortion and gay rights. (however evidence suggests there are limited difference of opinion between the genders on this issue)
- Women are more likely to be working in low paid forms of employment
- GOP Hawkish foreign policy disliked by women
- women like gun control
- women like support for education
- women get more conservative as they get older
Why is the Catholic vote volatile?
Italian and Irish Americans often in the public sector (police and fire service)(DEM)
White Catholics find moral issues electorally salient (GOP)
immigrants - entrepreneurial (GOP)
However, Catholics are increasingly Hispanic and they are overrepresented in low income groups so align with the Democrats in terms of welfare provision. (DEM)
What percentage of the electorate are Catholic?
27%
How much of the white Catholic vote did Mitt Romney win?
59%
Who won the Catholic vote in 2012?
In 2016?
In 2004?
Obama in 2012 50%
Trump won 52% (they were motivated by the supreme court nomination)
GWB won in 2004 because of his campaigning on wedge issues (abortion) despite John Kerry actually being a catholic
Why do younger people tend to vote Democrat and old people tend to vote Republican?
Younger people are less well off and more socially liberal, also more diverse (15% Hispanic 14% African-American)
Older people less socially liberal and tend to have accumulated wealth so like GOP taxation policies.
Who is more likely to turn out young or old people?
differential abstention, old people turn out a lot more, a massive difference in midterms
What was the historic high turnout for 18-29 year olds in 2008? What did it fall to in 2010?
52% hardly great
fell to 24% in 2010
What percentage of African Americans voted for Obama in 2008? 2012?
95%
93%
What are social and economic inequality levels like between Black and White households? give some stats?
The median income of black households in 59% that of white households
For white families the median wealth is $91, 500 for black families it is just $6500
African Americans are twice as likely to be unemployed as white people
1/3 of black men will go to prion at some point in their lives
due to poverty familial breakdown affects black families disproportionately 55% of all black children were being bought up by single parents in 2011
How was racial prejudice shown with the treatment of Obama?
The ‘birther’ movement suggested Obama wasn’t really American
What year is it predicted that whites will not be the majority in the USA?
2043
‘minority majority nation’
this is going to favour the democrats
What did Nixon’s southern strategy make black voters do?
become democrats by 1990 Clinton is winning 80% of the black vote
What percentage of the Hispanic vote did Obama win in 2012?
71%
How many hispanic people are there in the USA? How many African American people?
54 million hispanics (17% of population)
45 million African Americans
What percentage of Hispanic votes did GWB win in 2000? 2004?
31% in 2000 44% in 2004, this is an impressive amount
he made speeches in Spanish and emphasised how Jeb Bush is married to a hispanic lady
What percentage of Hispanics voted Democrat in 2016?
65%, given Trump’s talk of the Wall ect this was high
Why are Hispanic voters called the ‘sleeping giant’?
there are lots of them but they don’t turn out
lots are still too young to vote
Why are Hispanics volatile?
socially conservative- often catholic
entrepreneurial
over represented in low income groups
Which groups within hispanics are rich and which are poor?
Cubans tend to be richer (fleeing communism they came to USA) - vote GOP as they like strong stance against communism and have money
Puerto Ricans and Mexicans tend to be poorer - vote Democrat
Reagan said ‘Hispanics are Republicans, they just don’t know it.’ How are the GOP trying to woo Hispanics? what is currently off-putting
Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are hispanic republicans that are high profile
many hispanics think the GOP are demonising their community with their anti-immigration stances
What is the electoral cleavage like on income?
not very pronounced
lowers incomes slightly more likely to vote dems and vice versa
What percentage of the voters in the USA are evangelical Christians?
25%
What are the two social groups who always vote the same way?
Black Americans and Evangelical Christians
What is a primacy factor?
What is a recency factor?
Primacy factors do not change (e.g. race, gender)
Recency factors change (whats happening in the election)
How does region affect how you vote?
Those who live in cities and on the rims of the country are more likely to vote Democrat
-this is because these communities are more ethnically diverse and the white populations are more likely to have a college education, also more gay communities
Rural areas and cities without immigrants tend to be more conservative and lean toward the Republicans
How does age affect the way women vote?
Unless African American the older a woman is the more likely she will vote GOP
Why are soccer moms/ security moms volatile? who won them in 1996? 2004?
affluent but care about children so schools
1996 Clinton wins soccer moms
2004 security moms GWB won them
2008 Palin tried to win ‘hockey moms’
What is the theory of post-materialism?
As societies become more affluent voters look beyond issues associated with economic security and become increasingly concerned with other themes, such as the fate of the environment
How did Lyndon Johnson’s team campaign in 1964?
Negative campaigning - Daisy Girl commercial against Senator Barry Goldwater. Different issues are salient at different times and affect how you campaign
How did Clinton campaign in 1992?
all about economic recovery ‘it’s the economy stupid’
negative campaigning George Bush shown as aloof
How did GB campaign in 1988?
No new taxes
Dukakis portrayed as weak
what does WASP stand for?
White Anglo Saxon Protestant
What percentage of Evangelicals did Trump win?
80% despite being a known adulterer
they wanted the supreme court nomination
How many states did Obama lose in 2012 that he had in 2008?
only 2
What did the Democrats spend the vast majority of their funding on in 2012?
the ground war, energising the base of core voters
What percentage of the electorate were independents in 2008?
29%
in 2012 and 2016 was there high turnout from de aligned voters?
no turnout fell in these groups as neither candidate appealed
What percentage of African American votes did Hillary Clinton win in 2016?
88%
What percentage has the African American vote for the democrats not fallen below since 1980?
83%
What reasons are there for African Americans supporting the democrats?
GOP perceived as racist (southern strategy)
dems are pro affirmative action
African Americans over represented in low income groups so like democrat big government policies such as Medicaid
role models like Obama
Why does the African American loyalty to the democrats mean they are not electorally significant?
Democrats take their vote for granted
GOP doesn’t bother trying to engage them
In some states what percentage in the Hispanic population?
In some states they can make 25%
What percentage of Hispanics are catholic?
70%
What percentage of white people voted Romney in 2012?
59%
fiscal conservatism
Why do some people think Hispanics are badly polled?
exit polls are in English
Who has higher turnout levels men or women?
women
this makes them a key group to win
younger single women tend to vote democrat
older married women tend to vote GOP
How did Jewish voters vote in 1992? 1996? 2000?
1992 and 1996 78% Clinton
200 79% Gore (Jewish running mate Lieberman)
Jews are a self identified minority so vote Democrat
Why did Trump choose Pence as his running mate?
evangelical christian
In 2000 what percentage of voters who don’t go to church voted Gore?
56%
In 2000 what percentage of voters who attend church weekly voted Bush?
59%
What percentage of the electorate attend religious services weekly?
42%
What percentage of evangelicals supported GWB?
80%
How did Karl Rove encourage christian turnout in 2004?
his ground war saw wedge issues such as gay marriage go on the ballot to ‘energise the base’ of the party to turnout
How many voter guides did the Christian Coalition distribute before the 1998 midterm?
48 million
When do short term factors become more important?
When a voter has conflicting characteristics in terms of primacy factors
Why did Trump win?
7 reasons
mostly recency factors
- FBI reopen Hillary Email scandal (october surprise), too late to recover completely
- The Obama coalition of 2008 failed to turnout. Clinton won support of all ethnic minority groups but African American turnout fell by 7%
- It is hard to underestimate how much Hillary is hated in the USA. The crooked Hillary mantra played well with Republics and independents. She was also the first woman at the top of the ticket so received latent misogyny. Even the ‘pussy grab’ tape didn’t turn evangelicals away from trump because they wanted the supreme court pick and hated Hillary.
- The alt-right swung votes to Trump. Websites like Breitbart supported Trump and this encouraged young white males to turnout.
- Much like Brexit Trump tapped into those left behind by globalisation. His promises to repatriate manufacturing jobs resonated with many blue collar worker (in Wisconsin Michigan and Pennslyvania notably)
- The media loved Trump. Trump only ha to spend a third of what Clinton did because of all his free airtime. He was not taken seriously by the media until late in the campaign so many of his policies were not properly scrutinised. Clinton had been a public official for 30 years and all her flaws are well known and scrutinised whereas many of Trump’s issues were unknown. Clinton was held to a higher standard than Trump was.
- Clinton won 2.9 million more votes, just in the wrong places. Her massive wins in California and New York (Trump’s home state) didn’t help her is Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania where she lost by 100,000 votes
What was Obama’s 2012 October Surprise?
Hurricane Sandy,
Obama looked Presidential and won the praise of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, whilst Romney just handed out water
Who is the least popular President ever to be inaugurated?
Trump
who did the KKK endorse in 2016?
Trump of course
Who won white voters in every age group in 2016?
Trump
Why did Trump not release his tax return?
theories
- not as rich as he claims
- does not pay tax
- owed money to Russia
What did Trump’s approval rating drop to after the Parkland shooting?
35% this is incredibly low
why did Jews waver on Obama? (only 69% Democrat 2012)
didn’t like Obama’s stance on Israel
What percentage of Catholics voted Obama 2012? what does this show?
51%
perhaps shows the new deal coalition exists to an extent
How many southern states did Clinton and Gore win in 1992?
none
despite both being southern
How many Southern states did Obama win in 2008?
2/11
due to demographic changes it was easier for him than it was for Clinton in 92. New Deal Coalition totally broken down in the South
Is the North East solidly democrat?
Yes
Obama and Kerry won all the North east and Clinton 2016 only lost Pennslyvania
However North Eastern Blue collar rust workers are not really in the ‘New deal coalition’ any more
What is a reinforcing characteristic?
If a woman is on a low income, minority and lives in the North East they would almost undoubtedly vote Democrat.
All these characteristics reinforce her voting likelihood
What percentage lead did Reagan have among women in 1980?
What percentage lead did Obama have among men in 2008?
1%
he was charismatic
1%
higher turnout from minority men helped this
this breaks the psephology ‘gender gap’ idea. Voting behaviour is often determined by socio-economic factors but a strong candidate can change these trends
What was the only group to increase support for Obama in 2012?
Hispanics 71%
How could you show that race isa strong determinant of voting behaviour but that it can be affected by issues?
Although more hispanics voted for the Democrats in 2000 and 2004, GWB wooed 44% of the hispanic votes in 2004 due to his focus on moral issues
What percentage of Jewish people supported Clinton 2016?
71%
Why did Southerners used to be called yellow dog democrats?
said they would vote democrat even if they put a yellow dog up for election
after the civil rights act they become Republican
Why are many red states turning purple in the South
increasing minority populations
This shows race is a bigger determinant of voting behaviour than region
This means Obama and Hillary Clinton could win previously Republican states like Virginia
What percentage of Democrat voters voted Reagan?
55%
he broke the Democrat chokehold over the North Eastern industrial workers
What percentage of people in cities did Gore win in 2000? What percentage of rural people did GWB win in 2000?
71% cities voted Gore
59% of rural voted GWB (not as many ethnic minority voters in rural areas)
How did income affect voting in the 2000 election?
of those on incomes under $15,000 57% voted Gore
of those of incomes over $100,000 54% voted Bush
electoral cleavage on incomes is not very pronounced
What percentage of Hispanics voted Clinton 2016?
65%
Where is the Jewish vote very important ?
New York and Florida
Which regions do the democrats win?
the rims
Hillary won her extra 2.9 million votes in California and New York
How does Ideology affect voting behaviour?
Liberalism v Conservatism
When socio-economic factors can be balanced out, the ideologies and events of the time influence voters
However self-definition is weak. Only 90% of people who register to vote in a specific primary go on to vote for the corresponding candidate
10% of liberals voted for Trump??? WHATTTTT
Who won the $250,000+ group in 2016?
Trump but only by 1%
Obama won this group in 2008
What percentage of the lowest quintile voted Democrat in 2016? 2008?
2016 53%
2008 63%
What is cognitive madisonianism?
Voters split their tickets to get divided government as they desire a divided government situation as it increases the checks and balances
Most voters are not this sophisticated
What is Split Ticket Voting?
The practice of voting for candidates of two or more parties for different offices at the SAME election.
The opposite (voting for all the same party) is called straight ticket voting
Why did Republicans encourage Split Ticket Voting in 1996?
It was obvious that Bob Dole (their candidate) would lose so they encouraged voters to re-elect a Republican controlled congress. This is what happened
Why is Split Ticket Voting not seen as weird in the USA?
lots of offices at the same election
elections are more candidate and issue orientated than party orientated
In 2012 how many states split their tickets over Senate and President?
6
5 went for Romney and Democrat Senators
1 (Nevada) voted Obama but re-elected Republican Senator Dean Heller
What was West Virginias ticket splitting like in 2012?
only 35% voted for Obama
61% voted to re-elect Democrat senator Joe Manchin
What reasons can be cited for Split Ticket voting?
- the electorate has moved beyond party labels
- avoiding political extremes
- different criteria for different elections, want spending in state but not at federal level for example
- Parties are so broad that a party label does not mean they are ideologically different (In Maine they vote for Democrat Presidents but have had Republican Senators Olympia Snow and Susan Collins, however both these Senators are pro choice and have some liberal views)
- Independent Candidates
- Ballot format (15 states have single tick straight ticket voting)
Why is split ticket voting in decline
Polarisation between the two parties
What bill tried to stop straight ticket voting options?
People Before the Party, was introduced to the House in 2013
What was Split ticket voting like in 2016?
very low
9% split House, President
0% split Senate, President
What percentage of districts were split in the 1984 election? What percentage were split in 2012?
45%
6%
What things do Democrats believe?
- affirmative action is good
- comprehensive healthcare system based upon need over ability to pay
- Gay people should be protected from discrimination by law
- The minimum wage should be raised
- The USA is unpopular abroad because it has promoted its own self interest and sided with oppressors
- Pro choice
What things do Republicans believe?
- pro life
- anti affirmative action
- tax reduction
- states rights
- hawkish foreign policy is good
- obamacare is bad
Name some states where Hispanics are v significant
Texas is turning purple
California 25% Hispanic
Florida
Why is hispanic turnout below 50%?
felon disenfranchisement
polling inaccuracy
What percentage of people in the USA are independents?
40%
most of these don’t turn out
In 2012 what percentage of voters claimed to be independents in exit polls?
29%
Why did California voters (traditionally vote democrat president) vote for Republican Governor Arnold Swartzneger?
He was an environmentalist and this is a salient issue in California. In 2006 they voted for a Republican governor and Democrat congressmen. This shows Split ticket voting is more affected by issues than party labels.
What is a potential consequence of split ticket voting?
Divided government- gridlock
Shutdown in 1995 and 2013
HOWEVER even with straight ticket voting in 2016 there is still gridlock and 2 shutdowns
What is an argument for cognitive madisonianism about cutting taxes?
Presidents have little problem in cutting taxes but find it difficult to make requisite spending cuts. This caused issues for Obama and say Reagan triple the national debt in 8 years. However, potentially a Republican president who cuts tax but a congress that prevents spending cuts is best for voters??
Independent candidates mean you must split your vote, show this
Ross Perot got 19% of the vote 1992, all those people had to split their ticket
Incumbent Joe Lieberman lost his senate primary, ran as an independent and won
Bob Dole meant the GOP encouraged Split ticket voting
Ideologies vary so much in the USA that even if someone votes for two different parties they may be picking two candidates with very similar ideologies, this means Split Ticket Voting makes sense. Give examples of this
Massachussets is one of the most solidly Democrat states but had Republican governors 1991-2007 (however Romney is a centrist)
Mitt Romney won 62% of the vote in West Virginia in 2012, however Joe Manchin (a democrat) won its Senate seat with 60% of the vote. However, Manchin is a moderate and often votes with Republicans
Voters have different expectations from different elected positions. This means the average congress is Democrat and Presidency Republican. Why is this?
Cognitive Madisonianism
on a national level people want tax cuts
on a local level people want spending
Cognitive Madisonians may have been responsible for the House becoming Republican and the Senate remaining Democrat in 2012
What was the issue with Split ticket voting in 1980?
Reagan faces a hostile congress
Was government divided or not 1994-2000?
Divided, this is a prolong period
What election was the highest level os straight ticket voting for 100 years?
2016
every state with a senate election voted the same was for President
in 2012 this was only 91%
What was African American turnout like in 2008?2012?2016?
same as white people 2008 2012
less than white people 2016
What group in the USA has the fastest growing population?
Hispanics
Why do people split their ticket?
It’s a rational thing to do
What is gerrymandering?
changing the boundaries of a district for political advantage. (redistricting)
What has gerrymandering done to the parties?
increased polarisation, led to fewer swing states
more important for candidates to win primary than election, this leads to more extreme candidates
How is gerrymandering being tackled in some states?
giving the redrawing of boundaries to an independent bipartisan commission, e.g. California
How did the Republicans win a majority of 33 seats in 2012 in the House, depute gaining 1.4 million less votes than Democrat candidates?
REDMAP
Gerrymandering
Name two highly gerrymandered districts?
Maryland’s third district
N Carolina’s 12th district
In 2012 how did the North Carolina house results show gerrymandering?
51% voted Democrat 49% voted GOP
this translated into 4 Democrat and9 Republican house seats
?????
What age groups did Trump win in 2016?
all groups 45+
how can it be seen that both parties try to woo the old vote?
both support medicare, this hugely supports old people
Why are old people less volatile and more aligned than young people?
had time to politically mature?
What age groups did Obama win?
every single one apart from 65+
what percentage of 19-29 year olds did Hillary Clinton win?
55%
What is the percentage of split ticket voting between house and President in 2016? Senate and President?
8%
0%
This is v low
What could the democrats losing the house bit keeping the senate in 2012 be down to?
Cognitive madisonianusm
What did Split ticket voting lead to with Reagan?
He tripled the national debt
What percentage of Catholics did Trump win?
53%
What percentage of young people voted Obama?
60%
What percentage of those earning under 50k voted Obama? What percentage voted Clinton?
60
52
Wealth gap in voting behaviour is declining. Was 25% in 80’s now only about 10%. 1% cleavage amongst highest voters
What percentage of over 45s did Trump win?
53%
What percentage of rural areas voted GOP 2016? What percentage of Urban voted Dems?
62% Republican
59% urban
How have issues and image affected elections?
1992 Clinton ‘it’s the economy stupid
2008 economy
1996 Bob Dole fell over
2012 Romney seen as a weirdo Mormon
MAGA
What percentage of Jewish people voted Clinton 2016?
71%
What percentage of those under 50k voted Obama? Clinton?
60%
52%
Small electoral coverage
What percentage of democrats voted Clinton? What percentage of Reps voted Trump?
89% Dems voted Clinton
90% Reps voted Trump
