Turnout levels Flashcards
What are ‘Jim Crow’ laws?
Although the US constitution says the right to vote can’t be denied on the basis of race, the Southern states used bogus literacy tests, tax systems and intimidation to deny the vote to African Americans.
How did ‘Jim Crow’ laws end?
The Civil Rights movement campaigned against these Jim Crow laws and they were bought to an end by Amendment 24 (which outlawed the use of poll taxes to deny the right to vote in national elections) and the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
What is felon disenfranchisement?
In some states if you commit a serious crime you lose your right to vote for life and it can only be restored by a state governor. Felon disenfranchisement disproportionately affects black men, up to 15% of black men have lost the franchise in the USA
How many people have lost the vote due to felon disenfranchisement?
5.9 million
What did the National Voter Registration Act 1993 (motor voter act) do?
Registration requirements used to be a barrier to vote. It used to be difficult for rural voters to register. This law however ensured that citizens could register to vote when applying for or amending a drivers licence or when getting food stamps. It also in most states allowed postal votes
What did the Help America Vote Act 2002 do?
meant people could now cast a provisional ballot if they believed they were eligible to vote but were not registered
What increase in the proportion of the voting age population who registered to vote was there after the introduction of the National Voter Registration Act?
5% increase
What reasons are there for low turnout?
- Democratic Overload
- elections all the time in the USA, every two years + primaries - Decline in social connectedness
- only care about policy that directly affects you - Felon disenfranchisement
- 5.9 million people - Don’t believe in federal government, don’t believe in political efficacy (efficacy is the belief that elected officials will listen to you and care about you)
- makes people believe voting is pointless
- fewer party activists now - Both candidates are unattractive
- 61% voter turnout 2016
- low stimulus elections, 1988 Dukakis, Bush 52.2% - Hapathy
- 1996, turnout dipped to 49%, era of peace and prosperity
- but low turnouts among low income groups- unlikely to be down to hapathy - Young people
- don’t vote and therefore bring the turnout figures down
How does IDEA rank America in its international league table for turnout of registered voters?
93rd
USA has one of the lowest turnout rates of any Western Democracy
How is turnout measured in the USA? How is turnout among registered voters?
turnout is measured as a proportion of the voting age population in the USA, however, this includes groups that are not eligible to vote such as non-citizens and the unregistered. Turnout among registered voters is greater than in the UK, around 85%
What percentage of Americans are not registered to vote?
30%
How many provisional ballots were cast in 2004? How many were counted?
1.9 million of which 1.2 million were counted
Is there any obligation for US citizens to register to vote?
no obligations (unlike the UK) and therefore few do
What was the high turnout of 2008?
63% not exactly amazing
What organisations encourage voter turnout?
Rock the Vote
Glam up the Midterms
Our Time
usually aimed at young and minority voters will humorous ads and videos
Which states have really easy registrations (can register on the day)?
Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin
turnout is still low in these easy to register states
What was African American turnout like in 2008?
65%, only 1 % behind white turnout, due to Obama
what is the study of voting behaviour called?
Psephology
How have wedge issues been used to encourage turnout?
In 2004 Karl Rove directed the GOP into putting wedge issues such as ‘gay marriage’ on the ballot as to encourage high turnout for socially conservative voters.
The Democrats are now doing this with Marijuana legalisation
How did the Democrats register new voters in 2008 and 2012?
They used innovative social networking techniques (such as Dashboard) to help to register new voters. This was pivotal in 2012 as although he only secured 92% of Democrat voters they turned out in greater numbers than Republicans.
What is differential Abstention?
describes the disparity in turnout among various social groupings
abstention also varies election to election
What percentage of people with incomes over $75, 000 vote and what percentage of those with incomes under $15,000 vote?
86%
52%
This means politicians focus on issues that most affect higher income groups
What percentage of Hispanics voted in 2008?
49%
this is low
What is the vicious circle of voting and politicians?
Politicians only respond to those who vote for them and those who do not vote see no reason to vote for politicians who ignore them
What was the election year where African American turnout surpassed white turnout?
2012
AA used not to vote because of Jim Crow laws
What number of percentage points did turnout decrease from 2008 to 2010? What was this among African Americans? Latinos?
21 percentage point decrease
25 point AA
23 Latinos
Why did Obama get such a high turnout in 2008?
people were voting prospectively, hoping for change. By 2010 Obama had failed to deliver on some promises
How did African American turnout falling in 2016 contribute to Clintons loss?
turnout falling in this group made a difference to such a narrow victory which came down to 100,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
Why do battleground states have higher turnouts?
lots of campaign activity in these states
Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin increased turnout from 2008 to 2012 as they became battlegrounds
New Mexico turnout decreased 2008-2012 due to it loosing its battleground status
In 2000 how many states were not visited by either Presidential candidate?
13
If you’re not a swing state its hard to get attention and therefore voter turnout is lower
How are states in the USA now discriminating against minority voters?
Te white population is in decline and this is a worry for Republicans. Each state in the USA can draw up their own electoral laws so long as they are not in conflict with the constitution. This has allowed states to pass laws that purport to prevent voter fraud but are designed to penalise minority voter (who favour the Democrats)
Many states now have voter ID laws. Those on low incomes and from minority groups are the least likely to have photo ID and so these laws are said to discourage turnout from these groups. The 1965 Voting Rights Act required Congress to approve changes to voting laws in states with a history of discriminating against minorities but this part of the act was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2013.
What was the turnout at the 2014 midterms?
lowest turnout in 72 years, just 36.4%
could be partly down to voter ID laws
How many people were disenfranchised in Texas due to Voter ID laws according to a federal judge?
600,000 in 2014
Texas turnout one of the lowest in the country 33%
How could it be argued that voter ID laws contributed to Clinton loosing Wisconsin in 2016?
Trump won by 22,000 votes in a state where 200,000 voters were estimated to be without ID in 2015.
though it is impossible to know how many of these voters subsequently got ID and who they voted for.
Why can it be argued that not voting is not a bad thing?
a lot of people in the USA don’t like govt interference in their lives and not voting is a democratic right
How could you argue there is democratic overload in the USA?
In the USA they elect President to Dogcatcher
There is 500,000 elected positions in the USA, that is a lot of elections
There are national elections every two years as well as state level primaries, indirect democracy (initiatives + referendums) and off year elections like Virginia 2017
ballots are so long they are dubbed ‘bedsheets’
democratic overload leads to voter fatigue
In the UK turnout is still low but we are not overloaded
What are the trends in Presidential election turnout, give turnouts for major years
1960 -63% 1996- 49% 2008-63% (50 year high) 2012-61% 2016-61%
How could you argue that turnout has declined due to partisan dealignment?
Up to 40% of all US Voters claim to be independents so if the main parties cannot appeal to them they will not turnout, HOWEVER, even in 1992 with a viable third party candidate turnout was still 55%
Hapathy and Apathy contribute to low voter turnouts
How could you argue that turnout has fallen due to the changing nature of American electoral campaigns and campaigning techniques?
Super PACs are unable to co-ordinate their campaigns with the candidates they support. This leads to negative campaigning which is damaging to candidates and to turnout levels.
How could you argue that turnout varies due to candidates?
examples
In 1996 turnout was only 49% because Clinton looked like a sure winner and Dole looked unpresidential
In 2008 turnout was roughly level between African American (65%) and white voters (66%) with 2 million more African Americans turning out than in 2004. This was due to Obama. In 2016 AA turnout fell to 59.6%
Some elections are highly stimulating and turnout is higher in these. In 1992 turnout was higher than 1988 due to a viable three way race. 2008 was the first open race with two engaging candidates for a century, charismatic Obama and maverick war hero John McCain
Some elections have low turnout due to two bad candidates. Gush v Bore 200. Obama was disliked by independents but Romney couldn’t get them to turnout either. Trump and Clinton had the highest negative polling of two candidates ever.
How can you argue that turnout varies due to party activity?
examples
Democrats spent $50 million on voter mobilisation in 2010, turnout of 40%
2004 Karl Groves ground war, successfully energised the base of the Republican party through moral issues but also because of the Post 9/11 issues of war and terrorism and the ensuing ‘fear factor’
The Moter Voter laws 1992 and the Help America Vote Act 2002 have contributed to increased turnout.
How could you argue the US electoral system inhibits turnout?
Hispanics account for 16% of the US population but many are unable to turnout as they are non-citizens. in 2016 the Hispanic turnout was 49.6%
In 2014 Eric Holder (Attorney General) said 5.8 million Americans have lost their right to vote as a result of felony convictions
Us turnout figures are lower than most other Western democracies. Turnout is measured by the percentage of the voting age population who vote, this includes those who cannot and those who are not registered. Turnout among registered voters is around 85%
Candidates tend to focus on swing states with lots of ECVs in Presidential elections, 13 states were not visited at all by Bush and Gore. In 2016 the focus was on Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
What was turnout in 2014 midterms?
36%
This is the lowest turnout since WW2
What percentage of voters are independents in 2016 exit polls?
31%
How many fewer African Americans voted in 2016 than 2012?
2 million fewer
What percentage of voters do over 45s make?
55%
What is turnout in the highest income groups? Under 15k?
67%
27%
