Voting behaviours Flashcards
Explain what is meant by partisan alignment
Explain the importance of income as a long-term determinant of voting behaviour
Turnout
– 2022 midterm elections: 58% homeowners voted, 37% renters voted
– 76% of household incomes $100,000+ voted, 33% of income under $20,000 voted
– November 2022: 73% homeowners registered, 58% renters registered
– 257,000 signed Welcome to Vote Pledge = dec of commitment to offer voter registration when residents move into their new homes
– “Our Homes, Our Votes Act” (bill) = would safeguard voting rights and reduce barriers to voting for low-income renters
Party
– Less than $30,000 = 50% Dem, 27% Rep, 23% no lean
– $30,000-$49,999 = 46% Dem, 16% no lean, 39% Rep
– $50,000-$99,999 = 43% Dem, 13% no lean, 45% Rep
– $100,000+ = 44% Dem, 10% no lean, 47% Rep
Family income
2016 Pres election: families in lowest-income = 48% voting
– Highest-income category = 86%
– 2022: 76% of household incomes $100,000+ voted, 33% of income under $20,000 voted
Explain the importance of age as a long-term determinant of voting behaviour
Party
– 2015 = 45% millennials consistently liberal
– 2004 = 1/3 Boomers and 40% of Silents have at least mostly conservative attitudes
– 2016 pres election = counties in Pennsylvania had a strong correlation between Baby Boomers and Generation X and the voting swing towards Trump - swung a trad Dem state to Reps
– Nearly 6/10 Rep voters aged 50+
Turnout
– Average age of electorate = 50 (was 45 in 1997)
– 1997: med age of Rep voter = 43, now 52
– 1997: med age of Dem voter = 46, now 48
– 2022: 34% 65+ voted, compared to 14% non-voters
– 2022: 10% 18-29 voted, compared to 27% non-voters
– 2018: 11% 18-29 voted, compared to 30% non-voters
Other factors
- Gender + race
– 70% millennial women = Dem, 49% millennial men
– 57% silent generation men = Rep, 48% women
– Non-white millennial = 72% Dem
– Non-white boomer = 71% Dem
– Non-white silent = 75%
Explain the importance of education as a long-term determinant of voting behaviour
Turnout
– White college degree: 56% voted in all 3 most recent elections, compared to just 13% who didn’t
– College-educated White adults make up 24% of the eligible electorate but about a third of voters in 2022 (34%)
– College-educated Black and Hispanic adults also voted at higher rates than Black and Hispanic adults without a college degree
Party
– 2016 uni stud = 76% = liberal view
– 1994, 39% of ppl w college degree voted Dem, 54% Rep
– 2017: exactly reversed
– People with no more than high school: 47% Rep, 45% Dem
– 2017: 49% of white voters with a college degree = Dem, 46% Rep
– Education beyond a degree: 2017: 60% Dem, 37% Rep
Socio-economic background
– 2021= 37.7% aged 25+ graduated from college
– Unemployment rate lower for college graduates than workers without a degree - gap widened - COVID
– February 2020: (pre covid) 2% college graduates 4% high school
– June 2020 = 6% of college grads, 12% of high school grads were unemployed
– Vote for different policies - e.g. welfare, job opportunities etc.
Explain the importance of region as a long-term determinant of voting behaviour
South + North
– Southern States voted Dem until the 1960s and Rep since
– Bible Belt and Mountain regions = support for Reps
– The 2017 Cook Political Report:
- Dems and Reps prioritize protecting themselves over creating competitive districts
- Very few members of Congress spend time reaching to voters outside of their base
– Rust Belt = Dems dominate - California = 68% voted for Clinton and just 31% voting Trump
– However, most Rust belt states supported Trump (Partisan de-alignment)
– New York has voted Dem since Clinton
– Oklahoma has voted Rep consistently since Nixon
– Kentucky voted Rep consistently since Clinton
Swing state
- ‘only swing states matter’
– “A Democrat who lives in Kansas will never cast a meaningful vote in a presidential election in his or her life,” = Ed Grabianowski
– David Schultz = “But for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, their votes matter. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories about them by the media”
- Winner takes all method - takes all votes of state
– Nevada (2012) = 52% Obama, 45% Mitt Romney
– Colorado (2012) = 51% Obama, 46% Romney
– Buckeye State (Ohio) = “most important state in the country” = since 1944 no candidate has ever made it to the oval office without Ohio’s 18 electoral votes
– Florida - supported Obama (2008), George W Bush (2000) - winner in the Sunshine State won the presidency in every presidential race since 1964
Rural, Suburban + Urban
– Now, urban: 62% Dem, 31% Rep
– White urban: 54% Dem
– Suburban: 47% Dem, 45% Rep
– Rural: 16-percentage-point advantage for Rep
– Rural white: 24 percentage point advantage for Rep
– 22% suburban Dem voters stayed home, 16% suburban Rep voters stayed home
Explain the importance of religion as a long-term determinant of voting behaviour
– 2016 = rise in support for Trump in all religious categories except Jewish
Catholic
– Overall even split (46% Dem, 47% Rep)
– White Catholic = 54% Rep, 40% Dem
– Hispanic Catholics = 64% Dem, 27% Rep
– JFK = first Catholic president
– 2018: 46% Dem, 52% Rep
– 2020: 50% Dem, 49% Rep
– 2022: 34% Dem, 64% Rep
Protestant
– White evangelical protestants = 77% Rep, 18% Dem
– Mainline protestants = 53% Rep, 41% Dem
– 87% Black protestants Dem
– 2018: 40% Dem, 58% Rep
– 2020: 40% Dem, 59% Rep
– 2022: 34% Dem, 64% Rep
Unaffiliated
– 1994: 52% Dem
– Now: 68% Dem, 22% Rep
– 2018: 75% Dem, 22% Rep
– 2020: 71% Dem, 26% Rep
– 2022: 72% Dem, 27% Rep
Explain the importance of gender as a long-term determinant of voting behaviour
Male
– Reps = male,
– 44% male lean towards Dem (average)
– 2018: 50% Dem, 48% Rep
– 2020: 48% Dem, 50% Rep
– 2022: 44% Dem, 54% Rep
Female
– Women lean towards pro-choice, pro-gun control and anti-death penalty. Women are also said to place less emphasis on defence and foreign affairs and more emphasis on the environment, health, education, and welfare services
– Trump’s misogyny alienated women voters
– 56% women lean towards Dem (on average)
– 2016: 54%, 2017: 56%
– 2018: 58% Dem, 40% Rep
– 2020: 55% Dem, 44% Rep
– 2022: 51% Dem, 48% Rep
Other factors
– 64% of non-college educated white women supported Trump
2018:
– Black women = 93% Dem, 5% Rep
– Black men = 92% Dem, 6% Rep
– Hispanic women = 75% Dem, 23% Rep
2022:
– same for black men and women
– Hispanic women = 64% Dem, 34% Rep
Explain the importance of ethnicity and race as a long-term determinant of voting behaviour
Hispanic voters
– Latinos have favoured the Dems in every pres election since the 1980s
–Turnout low + vote concentrated in non-swing states
– 58% Latinos were registered to vote at 2004 election,
– 47.2% turnout
– Biden won 65% of the Latino vote to Donald Trump’s 32%
– In the swing states of Arizona and Nevada, Latino voters made the difference for Biden
Asian vote
– Dems
– Asian Americans also have the highest income and are the best educated, but American Asians have the lowest voter participation. This has partially been put down to them feeling overlooked
– 72% Asians voted for Biden, 28% voted for Trump
– 52% viewing the Reps unfavorably and 34% favorably
– 7-to-1 ratio = more strict gun control laws
– 44% want more government services
African-American Vote
–1930s the black vote that had previously supported the Reps –> Dems=FDR’s New Deal
– Dems = civil rights (1960s)
– Black political role models are Dems (e.g. Obama)
– Dem policies on affirmative action, often opposed by Republicans, further entrench black support
– 2020 = 92% Black voters voted Biden, 8% Trump
– However, a recent poll found 22% would vote for Trump and 71% Biden
– 27% Black men supported Trump, 17% Black women
Explain the importance of single issues as a short-term determinant of voting behaviour
JFK = civil rights + Cold War
Civil Rights
– LBJ - stat from history book
– Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act
– JFK
Activism
– 46% adults politically active on social media
– 12% have used a political hashtag
– 52% black Americans shared something supportive of the BLM movement
– BLM movement
– 2020 = 92% Black voters voted Biden, 8% Trump
– 80% of Americans say social media platforms are very or somewhat effective for raising public awareness about political issues
– #MeTooVoter = to encourage presidential candidates to get serious about addressing sexual harassment and assault
– TikTok campaign against an Alaska oil project = 50m views
Foreign policy
– Afghanistan (Bush), Iraq (Bush), Vietnam (LBJ)
–Other examples - George HW Gulf War, Neo-con era of Bush, LBJ = ‘big fat win for aggression’
Explain the importance of the image / personality of the President as a short-term determinant of voting behaviour
Positive media
– Obama = hope
– Obama = “first social-media president”
– JFK = young
– Franklin Roosevelt = 1st to appear on TV
– Truman = 1st to make a Pres address on TV
Negative media
– Anti-Trump Lincoln Project released an ad accusing Trump of “embracing extremists” over his refusal to disavow the far-right Proud Boys group during the first debate. The group used footage depicting Nazis, fascists and the KKK in the ad
– Lincoln Project has spent $23 million on ads bashing Trump + ad blaming Trump for the death of over 200,000 Americans due to COVID-19
– Priorities USA Action launched a new ad attacking Trump’s response to the pandemic
– America First Action spent $78m in attack ads against Dems
– Anti-Biden ads focus on him being weak and senile, showing a video of Clinton coughing alongside him
– Senate Majority PAC + the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent nearly $3.3 million combined opposing Senate President Chuck Morse
– 56% of ads in 2020 election were negative
Public perception
– JFK v Nixon = Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley = “My God, they’ve embalmed him before he even died”
– Nixon = “I should have remembered that ‘a picture is worth a thousand words.’”
– Donald Trump reported to have demanded a Washington Post photographer not take his portrait using a wide angle, as he felt it would make him look chubby ( “I looked like I weighed 500 pounds!”)
– Hillary Clinton spent $2,500 for 2 hairstyling sessions and called it “media production expenses”
– People questioned whether Mitt Romney was “too handsome” and “too perfect” to be president back in 2012
– Senator Phil Gramm = “I’m too ugly to be President”
Explain the importance of incumbency as a short-term determinant of voting behaviour
Previous achievements
– Biden’s 1st day = signed least 50 executive orders, about 1/2 reversing Trump policies –> “I’m not making new law. I’m eliminating bad policy” (in first 2 weeks, Biden signed nearly as many executive orders as Roosevelt signed in first month)
– Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
– FDR got Congress to pass 77 laws during his first 100 days
Resources
– Funding, staff
– If double federal spending in swing-state –> 1.13% increase in vote share (with same decline in opponent’s share) =2.26% advantage
Name recognition
- People know who they are - familiar
– FDR (1932 was re-elected in 1936, 1940, and 1944)
– Bill Clinton (re-elected in 1996), George W. Bush (re-elected in 2004), and Barack Obama (re-elected in 2012)
– An incumbent President has never lost a primary nomination in modern U.S. history
Explain the importance of social media as a short-term determinant of voting behaviour
Political advertising
– 2018-2023 = Biden spent $85m on Google Ads
– 2018-2023 = Trump spent $83m on Google Ads
– 2024 = $10bn spent on advertising
– 2022 = $388m spent on political campaigns on Google and Facebook(not Pres)
– When New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg went for Pres, he spent $1bn, 70% on advertising
– Trump’s “Make America Great Again”
Activism / single issues
– 46% adults politically active on social media
– 12% have used a political hashtag
– 52% black Americans shared something supportive of the BLM movement
– BLM movement
– 2020 = 92% Black voters voted Biden, 8% Trump
– 80% of Americans say social media platforms are very or somewhat effective for raising public awareness about political issues
– #MeTooVoter = to encourage presidential candidates to get serious about addressing sexual harassment and assault
– TikTok campaign against an Alaska oil project = 50m views
Outreach - increasing turnout, debate etc.
– 74% of internet users sought election news online during Obama’s first campaign
– 47% 18-34 y/o = social media most used platform for political news (compared to 5% for newspapers)
– Even more 65+ use social media (20%) for pol. than newspapers (10%)
– Turnout (18-29) increased from 39% in 1996 Pres election to 45% in 2012 election
Explain the importance of independent voters as a short-term determinant of voting behaviour
