Elections Flashcards
Explain the requirements to become President (constitutional)
Natural-born citizen:
- Must be a natural-born citizen of the United States. This means they must be born on U.S. soil or be born to U.S. citizen parents, regardless of the candidate’s place of birth
– John McCain (ran to be Pres) = born in Panama Canal Zone (then under U.S. jurisdiction, but now a part of the nation of Panama)
– Ted Cruz = born in Canada
– Barry Goldwater (Rep nom in 1964), born in Arizona before it given state title
– George Romney = born in Mexico
(all had American parents)
– Obama was born in Hawaii when it was a state
– President Chester Arthur also had allegations about his birth, that he was born in Canada, but was debunked
Age requirement
- At least 35 years old by the time they assume office. There is no maximum age limit specified in the Constitution.
– Oldest = Biden = took office at age 78
– Trump = 70 (when swore in)
– Reagan = 69
– William Henry Harrison = 68
– Youngest = JFK = 43
– Theodore Roosevelt became the youngest sitting president at 42 years after assassination of Pres William McKinley
Residency
- Must have been a resident of the United States for at least 14 years. - Doesn’t need to be consecutive or immediately preceding the election
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Explain the importance of the invisible primary on presidential elections
= Period of time from the candidate declaring they’re entering the race to the first primaries
Determines who will be the Presidential candidates
Chance for them to get name recognition, money and organisation
Candidate’s announcements
- Formally announce they’re entering the race before the primaries + caucuses
– 2016: Ted Cruz announced 11 months before
– 1972: George McGovern entered race 414 days before 1st primary
– Before reforms, 1960: John Kennedy announced 66 before, Nixon 40 days before)
Televised party debates
– 2015-2016: debates between would-be Rep candidates. So many, 2 debates: afternoon debate ‘kid’s table’, other with leading candidates. Only Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marci Rubio + Donald Trump invited to all 7 debates
– 10th debate (2011)- Rick Perry forgot the names of the govt. departments he wished to shut down, saying oops! on TV (ended his bid in 2012 after finishing New Hampshire primary with less than 1% of vote)
[III] Fundraising
- 2016: Ben Carson= $58m, Jeb Bush= $33m but didn’t win a single primary (no indication of success)
– Trump raised $25.5m, but donated a further $17.8m of his own money
– Hillary = $130m to Sander’s $96m
Front-runners
- Typically those who end the invisible primaries as front-runners tend to win the nomination - 2016: Hillary had 14 point lead over Sanders, Trump had 16 point lead over Ted Cruz
– But 2004= Rudy Giuliani held 10 point lead over John McCain who went on to win the Rep nomination
– 2008= Hillary Clinton had a 15 point lead over Obama in USA Gallup Poll
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- Voters in earlier states have 5x more influence than a later voter
- Obama spent 87 days in Iowa and won the Iowa primary
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Explain the importance of primaries and caucuses on presidential elections
don’t know how to group into 3
Explain the impact of the Electoral College on elections
Explain the strengths of the Electoral College in elections
Explain the weaknesses of the Electoral College in elections
Explain the role of money in US elections
Media + advertising
- Candidates & interest groups invest heavily in TV commercials, radio ads, online advertising, and other media platforms to reach a broader audience and shape public opinion
– Record $15.9bn expected to be spent on 2024 election
– Trump = $174m on broadcast TV
– 2020 - Biden = 90,000 airings on TV (est cost = $54.3m
– Trump + Biden collectively spent $175m on Facebook ads
Campaign funding
– Trump raised $25.5m, but donated a further $17.8m of his own money
– Hillary = $130m to Sander’s $96m
– but 2016: Ben Carson= $57.9m, Jeb Bush= $33.5m but didn’t win a single primary (no indication of success)
– 2016 = 97% of races won were won by top-spending candidates (House), 83% (Senate)
– 2016 = House Speaker Paul Ryan spent $13m, winning Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District election against a guy who spent $16,000, winning by a margin of over 60%
Lobbying and special interests
– Kevin McCarthy = received $886,000 from lobbyists
– Maria Cantwell = $668,000
– 2022 = $4bn spent on lobbying ($1.45bn 1998)
– Wall Street spent at least $2.9 billion during 2020 election
– NRA - 2022 = $2.63m
Explain the impact of money on Presidential elections
Advertising + media
– In 2020, around 1.25m ads around presidential campaign aired
–Trump = $174m broadcast TV
– Biden = 90,000 airings ($54.3m)
– Trump + Biden = $175m Facebook ads
Campaign funding
– Trump raised $25.5m, but donated a further $17.8m of his own money
– Hillary = $130m to Sander’s $96m
– but 2016: Ben Carson= $57.9m, Jeb Bush= $33.5m but didn’t win a single primary (no indication of success)
– Nixon - 1972 - 49/50 states = spent $70m
Donors + SuperPACs
= groups that are independent of any candidate or political party and can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, corporations, unions
– Priorities USA Action raised $192 million for Hilary Clinton’s campaign
– Restore Our Future (2012) spent $40m on Mitt Romney
– From Jan 2024 = 1,906 superPACs spent $184m (2021-2022)
– Timothy Mellon = $10m Trump
– Kelcy Warren = $10m Trump (in charge of Dakota Access Pipeline which Biden might’ve looked at
– Donald Sussman = $9m Biden
– George Soros = $178m to Dems (2021-2022)
– Kenneth Griffin = $72m Reps
Explain the impact of money on Congressional elections
Advertising and media
– 2018 midterm elections $5.7bn spent on advertising
– Over 2m TV ads in 2022 midterm elections (increase of 25% by 2018)
- Pelosi ripped up Trump’s speech = #NancyTheRipper
– The 7 most active Senators on X were all Republicans (2022)
– Senate Leadership Fund announced plans to spend at least $23 million on TV ads targeting Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire
Campaign funding
- Money to run events, advertising, hiring staff, and conducting voter outreach
– 2020 Senate race (Kentucky), Amy McGrath, (Dem), raised over $90m in her bid to unseat incumbent Rep Mitch McConnell
– Race between Dem Jon Ossoff and Republican incumbent David Perdue saw $510 million in total spending
Incumbency Advantage
- Exacerbates it - incumbents typically have established networks of donors and access to financial resources
– House incumbent Shontel Brown spent $4m (2021-2022)
– House incumbent Eric Swalwell spent $3m
– House incumbent French Hill spent $2m
– 2020 = incumbents won approximately 93% of House races and 82% of Senate races
– 2021-2022 = incumbents raised $830m (28 candidates)
– Challengers = $390m (183 candidates)
– House, 10 incumbents lost, 355 re-elected
Explain the impact of the media on Presidential elections
Candidate Image
– FDR’s 1932 campaign appearances were accompanied by the song “Happy Days Are Here Again”
– Introduction of Fox News - 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points for Reps in towns that broadcast Fox
– JFK = 1st Pres to effectively use TV to address American public - family man
– 1961 poll = 90% had seen at least 1/3 of JFK’s press conferences
Advertising + media
Negative media
Information
– 74% of internet users sought election news online during Obama’s first campaign
– 2004 election, a group called “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” launched a media campaign challenging the military service and integrity of Democratic nominee John Kerry, a Vietnam War veteran
Debate coverage
– 1960 debates JFK v Nixon = 1st presidential debates to be broadcast live = a supporter of Nixon told Nixon’s press manager to “fire the make-up man” = made up minds of millions
– “My god – they’ve embalmed him before he died!” (Mayor of Chicago)
– Ford said in the 1976 debate against Carter: “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe”, to which he wouldn’t back down and arguably cost him the election
– Reagan vs Carter (1980) = Reagan said “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?” and “there you go again”
– 84m people viewed the first Trump-Clinton presidential debate
–Rick Perry - “oops!” (2012)
Explain the impact of the media on Congressional elections
Candidate exposure
– 2018 midterm elections, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a relatively unknown candidate at the time, received substantial media attention, which helped her to win the Dem primary for New York’s 14th congressional district
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Media bias
– Introduction of Fox News - 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points for Reps in towns that broadcast Fox
– 2018: MSNBC (liberal) increased viewings by 30% (arguing people were suffering from Trump fatigue)
– 2013: 59% believed there was media bias, 46% saying mass media was too liberal and 13% saying it was too conservative
– 78% of conservatives think the mass media is biased, compared with 44% of liberals and 50% of moderates
Negative media
– 2012 Massachusetts Senate race = Elizabeth Warren vs Scott Brown, -ve media coverage around Brown’s comments on Warren’s Native American heritage impacted public opinion
– George Santos = faced charges of fraud, lying about his CV, money-laundering (not rlly elections)
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Explain the impact of social media on elections
Political advertising
– 2018-2023 = Biden spent $85m on Google Ads
– 2018-2023 = Trump spent $83m on Google Ads
– 2024 = $10bn spent on advertising
– 2022 = $388m spent on political campaigns on Google and Facebook(not Pres)
– When New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg went for Pres, he spent $1bn, 70% on advertising
– Trump’s “Make America Great Again”
Activism / single issues
– 46% adults politically active on social media
– 12% have used a political hashtag
– 52% black Americans shared something supportive of the BLM movement
– 80% of Americans say social media platforms are very or somewhat effective for raising public awareness about political issues
– #MeTooVoter = to encourage presidential candidates to get serious about addressing sexual harassment and assault
– TikTok campaign against an Alaska oil project = 50m views
Outreach - increasing turnout, debate etc.
– 74% of internet users sought election news online during Obama’s first campaign
– 47% 18-34 y/o = social media most used platform for political news (compared to 5% for newspapers)
– Even more 65+ use social media (20%) for pol. than newspapers (10%)
– Turnout (18-29) increased from 39% in 1996 Pres election to 45% in 2012 election
Explain the impact of SuperPACs on elections
= (“Super Political Action Committees”) = independent political organizations in the US that raise + spend unlimited amounts of money to support or oppose political candidates. Created through Citizens United v FEC (2010)
- Different from normal PACs (Political Action Committees) as they can accept contributions from individuals, corporations, labor unions, and other entities without any legal limits on the amount of money they can receive. This means that wealthy individuals, corporations, and special interest groups can contribute large sums of money to Super PACs to influence the outcome of elections.
Super PACs are prohibited from coordinating directly with political candidates or their campaigns
Increased campaign spending
– Priorities USA Action raised $192 million for Hilary Clinton’s campaign
– Restore Our Future (2012) spent $40m on Mitt Romney
– From Jan 2024 = 1,906 superPACs suspended $184m (2021-2022)
– $100m spent by Jeb Bush’s Right to Rise super PAC
– SuperPAC Black Men Vote spent $500k on Obama
– Make America Great Again Inc = $48m - Trump (2024)
– Never Back Down Inc = $37m - DeSantis (2024)
Negative press
– Anti-Trump Lincoln Project released an ad accusing Trump of “embracing extremists” over his refusal to disavow the far-right Proud Boys group during the first debate. The group used footage depicting Nazis, fascists and the KKK in the ad
– Lincoln Project has spent $23 million on ads bashing Trump + ad blaming Trump for the death of over 200,000 Americans due to COVID-19
– Priorities USA Action launched a new ad attacking Trump’s response to the pandemic
– America First Action spent $78m in attack ads against Dems
– Anti-Biden ads focus on him being weak and senile, showing a video of Clinton coughing alongside him
– Senate Majority PAC + the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent nearly $3.3 million combined opposing Senate President Chuck Morse
– 56% of ads in 2020 election were negative
Influence of wealthy donors
– Timothy Mellon = $10m Trump
– Kelcy Warren = $10m Trump (in charge of Dakota Access Pipeline which Biden might’ve looked at
– Donald Sussman = $9m Biden
– James Simons = $7m Biden
– George Soros = $178m to Dems (2021-2022)
– Kenneth Griffin = $72m Reps
– 2016 presidential race: $462m flowed to super PACs: 37% of total donations
Explain … each of 7 stages
Explain the extra-constitutional requirements to become President
Political experience
– 1968-2016= of 19 nominees, 10- Senate, 6- state governors. 6 served as Vice-President.
– Exception= Trump
Majority party endorsement
- Must be Dem/Rep, Independents don’t lead in White House
– George Wallace (indep.) (1968)
– John Anderson (1980)
– Pat Buchanan (2000)
– Gary Johnson (2016)
Personal characteristics
- Lots of time pale + male
– Hillary Clinton became 1st woman pres. candidate
- Advantage to be married = only bachelor = James Buchanan (1856)
– 3/8 last pres. candidates have been divorced + remarried (Ronald Reagan, John McCain + Donald Trump)
Large sums of money
- Very small minority can afford to fund their campaign:
– exceptions: Ross Perot (1992), Steve Forbes (1996 + 2000)
– Hillary Clinton raised $500m
Organisation, good policies, looking good on TV
– Senator Phil Gramm declared “I’m too ugly to be President”
