Voting Behaviour & Media Flashcards
What are short term influences on voting behaviour?
- Party performance
- Electoral campaign
- Party leaders
- Media
- Political events
What are the long term sociological factors on Voting Behaviour?
- Class
- Gender
- Race
- Culture
- Religion
- Age
- Education
- Housing tenure
- Partisan alignment
Class Alignment ?
Where votes reflect class
Class Dealignment?
Where class doesn’t reflect votes
What are the social grades ?
- AB - Upper middle/middle class
- C1 - Lower middle class
- C2 - Skilled working class
- DE - Working class
Examples of Class Alignment ?
ABC1 vote CON and from 1974 - 92 they won +50% of votes and up until 2024 CON win
Example of Class Dealignment ?
In 2024, LAB won higher % of votes than CON
C2 have a split between LAB and CON
What are examples of age having an impact on voting behaviour?
- Young people vote labour - 40% of men and 42% of women aged 18-24 in 2024
- Old people vote conservative - 41% of men and 42% of women aged over 65 in 2024
Example of age not impacting voting behaviour?
- Labour’s policies are more aimed at young people - LGBT, environment and equal rights
- Conservative’s policies aimed at old people - winter fuel allowance and pension increase
Example of Gender not having an impact on voting behaviour ?
23% of male and 26% of females voted conservatives in 2024
Examples that Ethnicity does affect votes ?
- BME vote LAB (2017 = 65%)
- BME dont vote CON (2017 = 21%)
- 2024 LAB won 53% over CON’s 14%
- LAB won across all age groups in 2024
Examples that Ethnicity does not affect votes ?
- Class may be the true reason as more BME voters are lower class
- Sikh and Hindu are more likely middle class and vote CON
- BME vote is going to other parties like greens and doesnt fit the trend
- BME vote depends on party policy (41% of P/B say LAB on Gaza impacts their vote)
Example that Region does affect Voting Behaviour ?
- CON do well in south as more people are upper class (54% in 2019)
- LAB do well in North and in Cities where there are more working class people
Examples that Region does not affect Voting Behaviour ?
- Region is often linked to Class and so is region really a factor ( 2019 : CON = 54% in SE )
- LAB dominance in cities links to diversity so is ethnicity the factor at play (2019 : 48.1% in London )
- Lib Dem areas impacted after 2011 coalition so is policy the factor at play ( SW : 34.7% in 2010 to 15.1% in 2015)
Rational Choice Model ?
Voters decide where to cast their vote based on issues of the day and the party image
Valence or Issue
Valence Model ?
Where people vote based off the image of the party’s stability, leader, unity
Issue Model ?
Where people vote based off the party’s policies and solutions to issues of the day
Factors affecting voting in 2019 election ?
Party Policy :
- Tories seen to be pro leave and won 74% of leave voters
- Labour seen to be pro remain but only won 49% of remain voters
Factors affecting voting in 2024 election ?
Party Policy :
- 82% of people voted for Reform based on immigration policy
Tactical Voting :
- ‘Best for Britain’ urged tactical voting to beat Tory candidates
Leader does affect the outcome of Elections ?
1987 - Thatcher had a reputation for being uncaring and she said she would like to be able to go to a hospital and spend her own money, this led to the Tory support being down 4%
1997 - Blair was seen as a popular candidate in that he drove ‘New Labour’ forward and appealed to young voters with a ‘Brit pop’ image
2017 - May turned down multiple TV debates with Corbyn and other candidates and so her campaign was notably derailed
Leader does not affect the outcome of Elections ?
1987 - Tory majority was reduced by ‘Wobbly Wednesday’ where Tim Bell spent £2m in a single week
1997 - Labour changed policy to more central and so policy attracted new voters
2017 - Tories lost seats due to Brexit where those wanting to leave abandoned their previous Tory support
What is an Opinion Poll ?
Expression of opinion on important issues from the public using calculated samples of 1-2k people in 50-100 constituencies
Eg. YouGov or Opiniom
Bandwagon Effect ?
Polls showing party leading before and election can influence people to vote for the winning party
Boomerang Effect ?
If a party is trailing, either people will switch to that party or supporters of the winning party will not vote as they think they have already won
