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Gov & Pol > VOTING BEHAVIOUR GOV 3A > Flashcards

VOTING BEHAVIOUR GOV 3A Flashcards

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1
Q

WHAT IS VOTING BEHAVIOUR?

A

THE WAY IN WHICH PEOPLE VOTE

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2
Q

HOW DOES VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN THE US DIFFER TO THE UK?

A

More complex due to the fragmentation in the us electorate

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3
Q

Why does voting behaviour in the US absorb a great deal of time?

A

Voting Behaviour in the US absorbs a great deal of time because it aids parties to see those social groups they could concentrate their efforts and to see which groups are a waste of time and money .

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4
Q

What elections are voting behaviour patterns analysed?

A

All. Local,national, state.

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5
Q

Any comment about social, religious or minority’s groups is?….

A

Only generalised when referring to voting habits . However trends can indicate

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6
Q

VAP?

A

Voting Age population. Everyone including felons, those holding non-citizenship status, those with a criminal record

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7
Q

VEP?

A

Voting Eligible Population

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8
Q

Turnout in 1996?

A

51.4%

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9
Q

Turnout in 2000?

A

54.2%

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10
Q

Turnout in 2004?

A

60.4%

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11
Q

Turnout in 2008?

A

62.3%

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12
Q

Turnout in 2012?

A

58.2%

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13
Q

WHAT IS ABSENTEEISM?

A

Failure to turnout to vote

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14
Q

Examples of Differential Abstentionism

A

Differential abstentionism is

1) the different in numbers between the supporters of one party who decide not to vote and the supporters of one party who decide not to vote
2) differences in turnout between socio-economic groups or ethnic minorities
3) those choosing not to vote in elections taking place at the same time (presidential, congressional, gubernatorial)

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15
Q

What is differentia abstention?

A

The differences in turnout between groups. Some are more likely to abstain than others

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16
Q

What is differential motivation?

A

When certain elections see an increase in one party’s support at the expense of the other party

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17
Q

What may motivate voters to turnout?

A

1) candidates

2) issues

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18
Q

What is realignment?

A

O.V.Key Realignment is those voters who have traditionally been loyal to one party realign their political allegiance.

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19
Q

Give an example of realignment?

A

The 1960s with the breakup of the democrat voting coalition of northern liberals and southern conservatives

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20
Q

Who criticised realignment and when?

A

1970 W Burnham

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21
Q

What are the 6 factors in critical realignment

A

1) Short lived but disruptive of voting behaviour (making it hard to predict)
2) political intensity to the election which can cause disunity, coming to head at national party conventions as passionate debates take place over the party platform.
3) ideological polarisation not just between parties but within.
4) people become motivated over issues and there is more political participation (eg turnout)
5) support for third parties.
6) takes place every 30/36years

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22
Q

What did Tod Lindberg argue in the Washington Post? And why?

A

It’s now harder for the Republican presidential candidate to get 50.1% than the democrat. After the 2008 election with the election of Obama’s and the democrats increasing their majorities in both chambers of Congress.
Realignment that occurred during the Reagen era had now reversed itself.

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23
Q

What did James Carville (mastermind behind the Clinton success of 1992) believe

A

The democrats could go on and control congress for the next 40 years after building in their successes in the 2006 mid terms.
HE WAS WRONG

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24
Q

Mayhew (2004) argued?

A

That there are no long term patterns and politics can not be divided into generational spans as this ignores what may specific to a particular election. Eg the democrats suffered a landslide defeat in the House in the 2010 midterms and lost seats in the senate. Furthermore Obama’s percentage of the popular vote fell to 51% and Romney beat Obama’s by 5% in the independent vote 2005.

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25
Q

What is the independent vote?

A

A swing vote. Hard to predict.Does not have an alignment to a party. Dealgined. Makes elections more reliant on short term factors.

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26
Q

In 2008/2012 how many independents constituted the electorate?

A

29%

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27
Q

Why was the independents important for Obama in 2008? How did this fall in 2012?

A

Obama had a clear lead in 2008 52% to 44% however this fell in 2012 to 45% and Romney picked up 50%

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28
Q

What did the survey published in the Washington post 2007 revealed for why people considered themselves to be independent?

A

1) disengagement (not interested In politics)
2) deliberation (swing voter)
3) disillusionment (no confidence in the two main parties)
4) dislocated (turned off by the polarised positions of the two parties)

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29
Q 
Class and Income.
Why has the historical strong income/class attachment to parties changed?
A

The New Deal coalition that broke up in the 1960s cost the democrats southern whites and moderate white northern high earning workers, as they looked for big government, high tax and minority policies. Although the Clinton victories remodelled the party moving it back to centre ground to win back lost votes (a tactic copied by new labour 1997). Class and income have been seen as less important in the us

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30
Q 
Class and Income. 
Why is class in the us not as important as in the uk?
A

There is no clear class alignment

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31
Q

Class and income.

Traditional voting behaviour?

A

Less affluent (Under $99999)= Democrats

More affluent= Republicans

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32
Q

Class and Income?

Why do the richer align with the republicans?

A

Look to protect their wealth with promises of low taxation

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33
Q

Class and income

2008?

A

In 2008 Obama built on the democrats core vote and made strides in the middle class being 1/2% behind. And 6% ahead in the 200,000 plus earners (making 7% of the electorate). This was due to the state of the economy.

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34
Q

Class and Income

2012?

A

In 2012 Obama lost the gains he made in 2008. Although the low and moderate earners were still core democrats. Romney led amongst high earners. Romney offended the poorer voters when secretly recorded at a Florida fundraiser saying that 47% of Americans with Obama were dependent on gov for hand outs played victims

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35
Q

Class and income

Results?

A

2012
Less than 30,000 (20%) —> d= 60%

30,000 to 50,000 (21%) —> d= 57%

50,000-99,999(31%) —> r=52% To 46%

100,000 to 199,999 (21%) —> r=54% to 44%

200,000+ (7%) —> r=52% to 47%

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36
Q

Why is region important?

A

Because if the diversity of the us.

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37
Q

When is region interrupted?

A

Landslide elections (regean 1984) or individual candidates( the Clinton/gore ticket 1992 won 4 southern states and Obama’s in 2008 captured the Ec votes of Florida, N Carolina, New Mexico etc previously red states)

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38
Q

Is region important in congressional elections?

A

Yes but the mainly focus on individuals

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39
Q

Red republican regions?

A

Solid south
Social conservatives
Rural
Texas and S.Carolina

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40
Q

Blue democrat regions?

A 
West coast
North east democrat heartland 
Liberals
Urban 
New York and California
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41
Q

Purple states/battleground states/swing states?

A

Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri.

Traditionally whoever win Missouri wins the whitehouse

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42
Q

What problems have the democrats faced in regard to region?

A

1) population shift. NE is less populated therefore the states have began to lose EC votes mainly to the south.
2010 census reappointment Ny lost 2 EC votes Texas gained 4z

2) Realignment of the SouthGore couldn’t even win home state Tennessee in 2000 with George Bush Jr winning every southern states

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43
Q

Gender

voting habits?

A

Women= Democrats, more likely to be registered therefore the higher the turnout the better success for Democrats.

Men= Male

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44
Q

Gender

What is the gender gap? Is it in the United Kingdom

A

The gender gap in regards to voting behaviour is the gap between support given to a candidate by women and the support given to the same candidate by men

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45
Q

Why is there a gender gap?

A

Women focus more on issues like abortion( pro choice) , guns, education, environment, health care (Medicare)

Dislike republicans social conservatism and hawkish foreign policy

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46
Q

Is there a gender gap in the Uk?

A

There is not a gender gap in the Uk. It was fine by 2001 voting conservative

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47
Q

How have the republicans attempted to appeal to women?

A

Appeal through woman running mate eg Sarah Palin for McCain

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48
Q

How have the republicans failed in trying to get woman support?

A

Romney undermine not commenting on Roe V Wade. Furthermore he was not helped by Conteaversial comments on rape made by republican candidates for the senate Ted Alin and Richard Mourdock.

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49
Q

Is the trends always accurate?

A

No. In 2004 John Kerry democrat lead amongst women fell to just 3%

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50
Q

2016 Gender?

A

54% of women for Hilary Clinton. 42% for Trump.

Divided by Race. White woman 62% for trump and 34% HC.

black women = 95% HC and 3% in Trump

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51
Q

Is there more women in Congress?

A

Yes

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52
Q

Age

A

Young= Democrats. More volatile, tolerant and radical. Look to close the gap between the rich and poor. 18-29 millennials.

Old= republicans. Significant “grey vote”. More likely to turnout (affiliated) vote for the part that will protect their wealth

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53
Q

2008 age

A

23 million of 18-29 turned out. 52%

Obama’s won 65% and 68% of first time voters

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54
Q

2012 Age?

A

Obama’s won 60% of 18-29

Romney won 56% of 60+

55
Q

2016 Age?

A

50% turnout of 18-19
hc won 55% of them
Trump won 53% of 60+

56
Q

Ethnicity

Why is it important?

A

Us is a melting pot

57
Q

The black vote

African Americans

A

firmly linked with the democrats
Since the 1930s because of Roosevelt’s new deal set up welfare programmes benefiting poorer groups in society.
Democrats support for the civil rights movement. For affirmative action.
Republicans failed to support ( a white party for white people)

In 2000/04 around 9 out 10 black voters supported dem
2008 95% Obama
2012 93% Obama

58
Q

The Hispanic Vote

A

Largest and fastest growing ethnic minority in the us.
2/3 Democrat vote
10% of the electorate In 2012
Sleeping giant in key states like Florida
Spanish speaking
Over 70% are catholic leAds to swing vote over family values.
Democrat mobilised over issues of immigration in 2008
Turnout is historically lower than any other ethnic group

59
Q

The Asian Vote

A

Growing group not united by language or culture

Originate from a number of countries Vietnam Japan and Korea

3% of the electorate

2004:55% democrats and 44% republican

60
Q

What is the problem with the overwhelming support for democrats from black people?

A

Ignored by the republicans and took for granted by the democrats

61
Q

Religion.

A

Wasps and Christian fundamentalists vote republican.

Catholic voters democrat but this is changing due to social conservatism of abortion and gay marriage in 2012 Obama won this group 50% to 48%

Jewish votes democrat. Pro-Israel candidates. Key in New York

Regular churchgoers are republican
Secular are democrat

62
Q

Core votes

A 
Democrats 
Poor
Young
Women
Jewish and catholic
Urban 
Minorities
Secular 
Liberal 
Black

Republican rich old women wasps Christian fundamentalists rural conservatives white

63
Q

Why is the core vote important?

A

12/16 the party that has gained the highest level support from its own identifies has gone on to win. Therefore party affiliation is a strong determination of voting behaviour.

64
Q

Why is the independent vote important ?

A

7/9 who wins independent vote wins the election

Make up 30% of the electorate

65
Q

Primary factors

A 
Race
Region
Age
Gender
Religion 
Class and income
66
Q

Recently factors

A

Issues
Candidates
Performance

67
Q

What is partisan alignment ?

A

Strong attachment to parties . Core vote. Dependent on factors,related to history, ideology and policies of each party.

68
Q

What is partisan dealignment and what does it lead to?

A

Abandoning previous partisan and allegiance.

More volatility (unpredictable swing vote)

Increase independence vote and reliance on short term factors

Cause parties to work hard for their vote

Can cause abstention

Increase the chance of split ticketing

69
Q

What evidence goes against partisan de-alignment?

A

Less split ticketing

Fewer swing states

70
Q

What are the reasons for low turnout?

A

Hard voter registration laws

Democratic overload

Lack of choice

Decline in partisanship

Hapathy

Apathy

Electrical system

71
Q

Hapathy?

A

The idea that voters are so content they do not need to vote.

Satisfaction with the system not alienated from it can reduce turnout

72
Q

Apathy?

A

Feel voting does not make a difference

Alienated

Lobbyist-dominated government not responsive to views

73
Q

Electoral system?

A

Little point in voting if living in a safe state.

Incentive to vote for a candidate with little support

74
Q

Decline in partisanship?

A

Those without party identification do not vote

75
Q

Lack of choice?

A

Candidates may fail to impress voters.

Two party system

76
Q

Voter registration?

A

Voters may fail to registered despite legislation such as help America vote act 2002 allowing same day registration and early voting

77
Q

Why are issues/policy voting significant?

A

Makes dealigned or rational voters more likely to vote

78
Q

Clinton 1992/1996 issues?

Economic? And domestic?

A

Economic—> Bush Snr recession 1992. Clinton places a great emphasis on the economy (it’s the economy, stupid). And it was believed to be well managed for 7 years

Domestic—> (Era of big government is over) promised healthcare and federal funding for education

1996 foregone conclusion

79
Q

2000/2004 issues
Domestic?
Foreign?

A

Domestic—> bush Jnr became a ‘compassionate conservative” and made promises for medicare

Foreign—> after 9/11 the war on terror was saw as important by 34%. People voted over Iraq and 9/11 administration

80
Q

2008 issues?
Economic?
Foreign?

A

Economic—> bush jnr left an economic crisis. 62% of voters viewed the Economy as the most important issue. Obama spread messages of change wanting to share the tax burden and regulate Wall Street. This attracted voters.

Foreign —> there was a discontent over Iraq and only 10% of people found it important. Obama promoted withdrawal and McCain argued “the us stay the course”. McCain struggled to divorce himself from his support for the war and being part of the gvt to blame

81
Q

2012 issues?
Economic
Domestic

A

Economic —> 59% saw the economy as the most important issue however Romney won 51% to 54%. Yet Romney should have done better because unemployment rates were around 9%.

Domestic—> Obama encourages a stimulus package and Obama’s aid.

Healthcare 75-24 Obama
Foreign policy 56-33 Obama
Federal budget deficit 66-32 Romney

82
Q

Why is candidates important?

A

Candidates> allegiance

Yet encourages image> substance

83
Q 
Candidates/personality
Carter
Clinton
Bush Jr
Gore
Kerry 
Obama
McCain
Palin
Romney
Hillary
Trump
A

Jimmy Carter- wore sweaters not suits
Bill Clinton- fresh Young charismatic
Bush jr- conspiracy around 9/11 made the most of not being a Washington politician. Orator. Draft dodging ignored
Al Gore- too technical lacked Clinton’s enthusiasm
John Kerry- flip flop no character
Obama- young fresh lacked experience change weed Ellen October surprise
McCain- trump old Palin- loved and hated beauty queen. Hillary Clinton- husband Trump- too extreme. Romney- too religious mistakes 47%

84
Q

What is split ticket voting?

A

Split ticket voting is when you vote for different candidates for different offices in the same election

85
Q

What is split ticket voting a form of?

A

Cognitive madisonianism the idea that divided government is better than a single government

86
Q

Where when does it take place and what does split ticket cause?

A

It takes place from region to region over time

Incumbency

87
Q

Give an example of split ticket voting

A

Voting for a republican senator and democrat president

88
Q

What is straight ticket voting?

A

Straight ticket voting is voting for the candidates from the same party for different offices in the same election. It is the opposite to split ticket voting.

89
Q

Give 3 examples of split ticketing over time and from region to region

A

1) Nevada voted for a republican senator 9 times out of 90 years
2) 1984 - 45% of districts split their ticket but in 2012 only 6% split their ticket
3) in 2008 9% for Obama and republican
10% for McCain and democrat

90
Q

Provide an example of incumbency? What does it do?

A

Nevada returning republican incumbent senator dean heller. Mainly congressional incumbent that benefits the state

91
Q

Why might someone split their ticket?

A

1) provide their own checks and balances policy balancing model
2) different expectations from roles
3) quality of the candidate

92
Q

Policy balancing model?

A

Weakens parties to be more representative. It is a intentional split that is a form of cognitive Madisonianism. Dislike for the polarisation therefore ensures power is shared bring compromise (or cause deadlock)

93
Q

Different expectations? What does it result in

A

Understand the different roles. Looking to Congress to aid with local and regional issues. If they deliver the pork they may stay.
Results in a home style response

94
Q

What is a home style response?

A

Term coined by Richard Fenno 1978. The Congress attempt to please the electorate. Expense of national issues

95
Q

Quality of candidates example?

A

1972 Richard Nixon landslide victory against George McGovern who was considered too liberal for the us electorate. Yet the democrats still controlled Congress

96
Q

Split ticket voting in Gubernatorial elections?

A

Brian Schweitzer Democrat Governor returned in 2004 yet George Bush Jr claimed the EC votes at the expense of John Kerry

97
Q

Lagged Split Ticket effect?

A

Electorate Moderate an executive it sees as too extreme

98
Q

Give an example of split ticket effect?

A

In 2006 when the democrats captured both chambers of Congress. Or in 2010 when the republicans recaptured the house and made gains in the senate

99
Q

Coattails effect?

A

The opposite of split ticket voting. When charisma and popularity of the president translates to gains in Congress

100
Q

Give an example of coattails effect?

A

Ronald reagen 1980 republicans gained 12 seats in the senate.

101
Q

What did Jacobson (2009) point out?

A

That a president can achieve more with his party controlling Congress than when he faces a hostile Congress (divided government).

Obama may have not got his healthcare reforms or increase regulation of banks if democrat never controlled Congress and voted largely along party lines.

102
Q

Why is split ticket voting in a dramatic decline?

A

Increasing polarisation on key issues such as gun control health care and taxation.

Electorate make choice based on party position over individual candidates

103
Q

What is the red/blue divide?

A

Equal divide between the republicans and the democrats coined by political commentators in the mid 1990s. The us polarised with 50% blue democrats and 50% red republicans

104
Q

Give an example of the red/blue divide in 2000

A

In 2000
Bush = 49% and 271 EC votes
gore= 49% and 267 Ec bores

The house 221 (r)-212 and Senate 50-50

105
Q

Give an example of the red blue divide in 2004

A

2004
Bush=51% and 286 EC
Kerry=48% and 252 EC

House =232 (r) to 202
Senate= 55 (r)-45

106
Q

What is a stereotypical blue American

A 
Female.
White or ethnic
Secular
Less wealthy
Urban 
Liberal views
Oppose Iraq
107
Q

What is a stereotypical red American

A 
Male
White 
Protestant
Wealthy
Rural
Suburban
Conservative view (especially morally)
108
Q

What did Ceaser & Busch (2005) suggest

A

The red blue divide is too simplistic and exaggerated the extent of polarisation. There may be solid and blue states but this can be reverse in presidential and congressional (split ticketing) therefore there is more shades of purple

109
Q

When had the red blue divide been reversed in pres election?

A

Obama took 9 previously red states in 2008

110
Q

How is west virginia Maine and California complex?

A

West V—> red for pres but 2 senator,1/3, governor and state legislator are democrats

Maine—> solid democrat but before Olympia snowe retired 2012 republican senators

California—> blue but had a republican Arnold Schwarzenegger’s

111
Q

Is there a clear red/blue divide in Congress

A

Yes the old bi partisanship and moderates working across he aisles has gone

112
Q

Why did Olympia snowe not seek re election ?

A

Because of the high partisanship too opposed

113
Q

Congress operating in what like uk parliamentary System

A

Same adversarial lines

114
Q

What are the 4 reasons for the increase in party unity and partisanship

A

1) Regan won over conservatives and made it difficult for moderate republicans within the party
2) US foreign policy based on the containment of communism (both parties shared a consensus on) but with the demise of the Soviet Union the us no longer had a tiger at the gate. Therefore united front undermined
3) partisan presidency. Successful presidents encouraged and represented a more divisive to the opposition
4) it develppemnts, channels with different interpretations and bias. Simply reinforces the viewers pre-conceptions rather than challenging them or offering a balanced view

115
Q

What is turnout in congressional elections?

A

One third to 40%

116
Q

Why does switzerland have a worse turnout record?

A

A western democracy with frequent referenda and strong local government making national elections less important

117
Q

Describe the trends in turnout of the presidential race?

A 
1960=67%
1996=51.4%
2000=54.2%
2004=60.4%
2008=62.3%
2012=58.2%
2016=58%
118
Q

Who are the non voters

A

Less educated
Young voters
Minorities
Poor

119
Q

What did wolfinger and rose stone research on education suggest

A

Claimed that when other factors such as income and ethnic background are the same education is a crucial factor

120
Q

Younger voters?

A

The older you are the more likely to vote

however in 2004 the youth turnout rose

and in 2012 there was an increase in the millennials to 19%.

crucial in Ohio Florida’s Virginia Pennsylvania which went democrat

121
Q

Minorities?

A

Black turnout lower than white
But Hispanic lower than black
Minorities found in lower income brackets

122
Q

Poor income?

A

Minorities in low income bracket

Less likely to vote

Increase in turnout 19% to 2000 and 26% 2012

White community a minority by 2042

123
Q

What are the difference between the states in turnout?

A

Minnesota high 78% in 2004 but low of 46 in California and Minnesota

124
Q

What about those with high school educations?

A

May not vote and don’t fit the categories

125
Q

What are the possible reasons for low turnout out in the past?

A

1) difficult registration procedures
2) weakening party loyalties (lost faith to scandal)
3) lack of inspiring candidates
4) Safe states Ec discourages turnout
5) lack of choice (third parties do not win votes)

126
Q

What are the difficult registration procedures?

A

State disenfranchise significant numbers of voter through registration rules.

Florida 2000 and other states cannot vote if convicted of a felony.

Bill Clinton the motor voter bill (resisted by reps (national registration act) passed in 1993 offered the chance to register renewing driving license but this did not have a major impact as expected for 2004

2012 states enacted laws to make it harder. The Brennan Center for justic claimed that 14 states did and disenfranchised 5m voters. Florida brought ina law that voter registration forms must be handed in within 48 hours after voters filled them out by voter refistration groups (this change was not advertised and previously it had been 10 days)

127
Q

What did abramsin and Aldrich 1982 explain

A

The decline in presidential election turnout due to weakening party loyalties and faith due to ineffective gov and scandals

  • budget deficit under rep
  • clintons failed healthcare reform
  • congressional budget deadlocks
  • water gate
  • irangate
  • Clinton and Lewinsky
128
Q

Lack of inspiring candidates?

A

No real choice
1996 Clinton’s “new Democrat” against bob dole 73 moderate republican

2000 Bush Jr xompassionate conservative against wooden moderate democrats al gore

129
Q

Why can’t third party inspiring candidates win?

A

Two party system
Winner take all
Can’t get Ec votes

Poor Ralph Perot

130
Q

How does the ec discourage?

A

Those in safe states discourages turnout as one party dominates vote wasted

California and Texas low turnout safe states

131
Q

Why was there an upsurge in 2004 ?

A

War on terror after 9/11 Iraq war

Bush Jr not seen as legitimate in 2000 election disputed recount in Florida motivated supporters

Campaign by Karl rove encouraged core vote

Swing voters a difference “too close to call”

132
Q

What encouraged turnout in 2008?

A

Economy and war on terror leaving the Iraq war

Obama registered voters winning 68% of first time voters

Early voting

Promise of change

133
Q

How has voting increased (2012)

A

Research by pew centre (non-partisan) revealed that 1:8 voter records inaccurate and 51m not registered.

Cost $7.76 in Oregon to register

Laws with us photos and student id not sufficient

Gov & Pol (2 decks)

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