voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
long-term factors that affect how people vote
- class alignment
- partisan alignment
- location
- age
- gender
- ethnicity
how does class alignment affect how people vote
- higher classes involved in management, administration and professional jobs tend to vote Conservative
- lower classes involved in manual labour, or those who are unemployed, pensioners or on benefits tend to vote Labour
- class identification was highest during the 1950s, but has blurred since the huge numbers of Conservatives voters, particularly in higher classes, voted for Tony Blair’s Labour in 1997
how has partisan alignment affected voting behaviours
- people vote based on an attachment they might have with a political party
- linked to class alignment
- evidence that the UK is experiencing class and partisan dealignment is seen
how does location affect voting behaviours
strength of parties in different areas varies:
- Labour is strongest in London, major urban areas and North England
- Conservatives are strongest in SW England
- Lib Dems are strongest in SW England
- Scotland has a mix of Labour, SNP and Lib Dems
how does age affect voting behaviours
- the younger you are, the more likely it is that you vote Labour (as they like to see radical change)
- the older you are, the more likely it is that you vote Conservative (as they prefer to maintain the status quo)
- in 1979, age had little impact on voting behaviour, as Conservatives were strongest across all age categories
- in 2024, a crossover occurs in the late-50s whereby people are more likely to vote Conservatives as they get older, and Labour when they are younger
how does gender affect voting behaviours
- women tend to vote Conservatives, and men tend to vote Labour, but by the small margin of 5%
- in 2024, there was little difference between men and women in the two main parties, however men were more likely to vote Reform UK over Lib Dems
how does ethnicity affect voting behaviours
Labour tend to perform well electorally with BAME voters, while Conservatives perform strongly with white voters
what short-term factors may affect voting behaviour
- rational choice theory
- valence
- issue salience
- leader of the party
- governing competency
how does rational choice theory affect voting behaviour
people vote rationally, based on which party or candidate will benefit them best. voters carry out a cost-benefit analysis of the options, and vote based on the parties that match their preferences and beliefs. therefore, successful parties adapt their manifesto pledges to match the public opinion of the day
how does valence affect voting behaviour
- the idea people trust parties and leaders to care about and deliver on the issues the voter cares about
- down to one’s perceived trust in a politician or party
- also refers to the lack of trust someone has in the ability of a party to deliver on issues
- evidence that this is why the Conservatives have suffered polling deficits since 2022, as many right-wing voters don’t trust the party to deliver on immigration etc.
how does issue salience affect voter behaviour
- idea that some issues are more important at certain elections
- e.g. in 2019 general election, the most prominent issue was Brexit. the Conservative’s clear stance on Brexit saw the gain 43% of the vote, as opposed to Labour’s confusing message leading to a loss of 8% of the vote
- e.g. in 2010 general election, the economy was the standout issue
- people will vote on the basis of their opinions on the big issues
how does leader of the party affect voter behaviour
- if a leader is not charismatic and fresh, they won’t inspire people to vote for them
- e.g. Ed Miliband’s leadership of Labour saw people driven away from voting for the party due to his leadership
- e.g. Boris Johnson was seen as a new leader with a fresh approach to politics for the 2019 general election, leading to the winning of the election
how does governing competency affect voting behaviour
factors surrounding how a party has performed in previous governments, and how effective they have been:
- economic management ( many distrusted Labour after the 2008 financial crisis)
- control of events ( May lost huge number of votes in 2017 after poor management of the Grenfell Tower disaster)
- policy (Thatcher’s firm promise to stick to policy which paid off in the election)
- party unity (Blair’s Labour was seen as hugely united, and saw a huge increase in voters under his leadership)
- personal competency (many distrusted Sunak’s Conservatives in the 2024 election after a number of scandals)
Labour’s 2024 party policies
- add VAT to private school fees to recruit more state school teachers
- set up GB energy, publicly owned energy firm, to invest in clean energy and create jobs
- fund 13,000 more neighbourhood police to tackle anti-social behaviour
- create a Border Security Command with counter-terrorism powers to stop people trafficking
Conservatives 2024 party policies
- cut 2% off National Insurance to allow people to keep more of the money they earn
- introduce National Service for 18-year-olds, serving military or local community
- raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030
- send asylum seekers to Rwanda to deter crossing the English Channel by small boats
Lib Dem 2024 party policies
- aim to allow everyone to see a GP within 7 days
- clean up the UK’s rivers and waterways
- introduce PR to elect MPs to Westminster
- invest in free personal care, offering more support to unpaid carers
SNP 2024 party policies
- another Scottish independence referendum
- rejoin the EU after Scotland leaves the UK
- invest in a ‘just transition’, helping people move to net zero by supporting those who lose their jobs
- demand an immediate ceasefire and end to fighting in the Middle East
Reform UK 2024 party policies
- reach net-zero migration
- raise the amount someone earns before paying income tax from £12.5k to £20k, allowing people to keep more of their earnings
- scrap VAT on energy bills and cut fuel duty on petrol and diesel
- end net zero policies and invest in cheaper oil and coal
Green Party 2024 party policies
- aim to reach net zero by 2040, investing £40bn a year in a ‘green economy’
- scrap university tuition fees so students don’t have to pay back debt over their adult life
- introduce a wealth tax on the ‘super-rich’, those with assets over £10m
- nationalise the railways, water companies and energy companies
main points from the 2024 campaign
- campaign began on a rainy Wednesday when Conservative PM Sunak announced the election, when Labour was roughly 23 points ahead of the Conservatives in the polls
- Conservatives campaign focused on ‘the plan’ that Sunak and Chancellor Hunt has been following to reduce inflation and cut the rate of national insurance
- Labours campaign focused on promising to end 14 years of ‘Tory chaos’, and returning to calmer politics
- Lib Dems conducted many stunts highlighting social issues e.g. paddleboarding in the Lake District to highlight sewage released to lakes and rivers
- Farage initially said he wouldn’t stand for Reform UK and would help the campaign, but changes his mind
- Greens campaigned heavily in Bristol and Waveney Valley, where co-leaders Denyer and Ramsay were running
- SNP were surprised by election, with leader Swinney just elected weeks earlier
what changed in the polls throughout the 2024 election campaign
- Reform UK surged the polls, with some having them ahead of the Conservatives
- Labour locked onto leading position, rarely dropping below a 20-point lead
- Lib Dems and Greens saw minor increases
- SNP slowly reduced position
how did leaders of the major parties affect public perception
- Sunak’s character was questioned frequently during the campaign, as many accused him as being out of touch with the Brits. e.g. for leaving a D-Day celebration early, with Lord Cameron taking his place. Ridiculed for his proposal of National Service by younger voters
- Starmer seen as a safer pair of hands, with duller personality. Task to maintain Labour’s lead in the polls succeeded. During TV debates, he put himself forward as the change candidate who would end 14 years of ‘Tory chaos’
Labour results of the 2024 general election
Labour won landslide victory of 412 seats, 33.7% of vote- biggest majority since Tony Blair’s New Labour in 1997
Conservative results of the 2024 general election
Conservatives won 121 seats, 23.7% of vote- worst result since 1906
Lib Dem results of the 2024 general election
Lib Dems won 72 seats, 12.2% of vote
Reform UK results of the 2024 general election
won 5 seats, 14.3% of vote
Green party results of the 2024 general election
won 4 seats, 6.8% of vote
2024 general election turnout
59.9%, lowest turnout since the 2001 general election, considered a low point for political engagement in UK politics
which long-term factors most impacted voting behaviour in 2024
age
faith
region
social class
how did age affect voting behaviour in 2024
younger people were far more likely to vote for Labour or Green this election- Labour won approx 41% of votes from 18-24 year olds, greens won 18% of this age group.
older voters were more likely to vote for Reform UK and Conservatives. However, Conservative support among 65+ reduced this year, as they only received 42% of the vote, and Labour 22%
how did faith affect voting behaviour in 2024
During the war in Gaza, many independent candidates picked up seats standing on the platform of calling for a ceasefire. This was successful in areas with a large Islamic population e.g. Islington North and Leicester South.
how did region affect voting behaviour in 2024
Labour performed extremely well in Urban areas, with Conservatives picking up the vast majority of seats in rural areas. Lib Dems improved significantly in South West England, and Green’s performance was more sporadic
