Voting Behaviour and the Media

Question 1

What geographical voting trends can you see with the Conservative Party?

Answer 1

Tend to do well in areas that are predominantly white, rural or suburban or socially conservative

Question 2

What geographical voting trends can you see with the Labour Party?

Answer 2

Since 2005, Labour has contracted support to industrial areas in south Wales, the industrial north of England and London. Urban areas are increasingly becoming Labour strongholds and are less inclined to vote Conservative.

Question 3

What are the Scottish voting preferences?

Answer 3

Left wing, traditionally Labour but since 2015 there has been SNP dominance with the Conservative Party emerging as the main, though limited, opposition. Scots seen as more ‘caring’ about what they vote for, more politically aware and politically minded.

Question 4

What is the reasoning behind Scottish voting preferences?

Answer 4

They hold opposition to London-centred policies and New Right policies. There are specific social and economic problems in Scotland. Different impact of devolution and Brexit.

Question 5

How did Brexit affect the status quo for voting behaviour?

Answer 5

• Traditional Labour areas turned Conservative
• Tories gained 48% of the working class vote in 2019.

Question 6

How have voting preferences in Scotland changed, will they change any further?

Answer 6

• Traditionally Labour, now SNP
• SNP likely to lose seats at next GE (scandals, leadership changes)
• Labour may regain power as strongest opposition to Sunak’s govt
• Growing calls for independence and devolution

Question 7

What are the Welsh voting preferences?

Answer 7

Heavy Labour bias, but with strong support for Conservatives in rural areas.

Question 8

What is the reasoning for Welsh voter preferences?

Answer 8

Industrial areas favour Labour. Rural areas for Conservative or Liberal Democrat. The far west is more likely to vote nationalist.

Question 9

How have Welsh voter preferences changed, will they change any further in the future?

Answer 9

Rural areas may fall to Liberal Democrats as most likely party to oust Conservatives, especially amongst agricultural community. Labour strongholds likely to remain.

Question 10

What are the voter preferences in Northern Ireland?

Answer 10

Has its own party system, with a split between unionist and nationalist parties.

Question 11

What is the reasoning for northern Irish voter preferences?

Answer 11

Party votes reflect religious and cultural divisions in the region with 2019 reflecting a shift towards nationalist parties.

Question 12

How may voter preferences change in Northern Ireland in the future?

Answer 12

May see a further shift towards nationalist parties due to disillusionment with the UK government.

Question 13

What are the voter preferences in London?

Answer 13

Majority Labour

Question 14

What is the reasoning for voter preferences in London?

Answer 14

• Increasing ethnic diversity
• Greater economic disparity across the city
• Reliance on public services
• More socially liberal than other regions

Question 15

Will there be any chances to voter preferences in London?

Answer 15

Labour likely to remain strong - use of tactical voting.

Question 16

What are the voter preferences in rural England?

Answer 16

Overwhelmingly Conservative

Question 17

What is the reasoning for voter preferences in rural England?

Answer 17

Mostly white, economically conservative, socially conservative

Question 18

Will the voter preferences in rural England change?

Answer 18

Unlikely to see much change

Question 19

What are the voter preferences in industrial northern England?

Answer 19

Mostly Labour until 2019 when the ‘red wall’ turned Conservative in many areas.

Question 20

What is the reasoning for voter preferences in industrial northern England?

Answer 20

• Traditionally higher unemployment than other areas
• Greater poverty and urban decay
• Greater ethnic diversity
• Increasing focus on socially conservative issues
• Rise in nationalism/anti-EU sentiments
• Many industrial areas shifting from Labour to Conservatives

Question 21

Are the voter preferences in industrial northern England going to change?

Answer 21

Red walls may return due to tactical voting. Socially conservative voters may even turn to Reform.

Question 22

What are the voter preferences of the Home Counties?

Answer 22

Predominantly Conservative

Question 23

What is the reasoning behind the voter preferences in the Home Counties?

Answer 23

London commuter belt is made up of C1, B and A classes. Mostly white, more conservative than London and economically prosperous.

Question 24

Will the voter preferences in the Home Counties change?

Answer 24

Likely to remain as Tory seats. May see a few Reform votes but not necessarily seats.

Question 25

What is the traditional trend in terms of gender?

Answer 25

Traditionally, women favour the Conservative and older women in particular are most likely to vote Conservative.

Question 26

What are the exceptions to the traditional gender trend?

Answer 26

• 1970 - Heath Victory: “Housewives” delivered victory on promises of economic stability and prices of the weekly shop
• 1997-2005 - Blair won a larger share of the female vote than Labour usually achieves
• 2020 - Johnson saw a gender gap emerge: Conservatives were 46% among men and 44% among women, whereas Labour were 31% among men and 35% among women.

Question 27

Which issues do men tend to prioritise?

Answer 27

• Foreign intervention/war
• Nuclear weapons
• Nuclear power

Question 28

Which issues do women tend to prioritise?

Answer 28

• Health
• Education

Question 29

Give four examples of marked attempts to target female voters

Answer 29

• 1997 - Blair launched “all-women shortlists”
• 2010 - Cameron increased female Conservative MPs
• 2014 - The Liberal Democrats led a campaign on equal pay and more childcare provision
• 2017 - Labour committed to gender impact assessment on policies

Question 30

What is the general consensus of voting patterns in terms of age?

Answer 30

Younger voters tend to lean left and older voters are more likely to vote.

Question 31

How are parties of the left slightly disadvantaged by age voting patterns?

Answer 31

• Younger voters are less likely to vote
• Older population is growing as a percentage of the population

Question 32

Why is it suggested that older voters favour the Conservatives?

Answer 32

Policies: pension reforms, NHS, law and order, limited social reform
Themes: patriotism, monarchy, amassed wealth more prevalent

Question 33

What is the general rule of voting patterns in terms of ethnicity?

Answer 33

Overall, BME voters are more likely to vote Labour, but British-Asians are more likely to vote Conservative.

Question 34

Give three reasons why BME voters are more likely to vote Labour

Answer 34

1. Conservative legacy of anti-minority views:
   - Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech (1968): criticised Labour’s immigration and anti-discrimination laws
   - Norman Tebbit’s ‘cricket test’ (1990): criticised South Asian and Caribbean immigrants’ loyalty to England cricket team
2. Johnson’s use of racially offensive language:
   - Described the Queen being greeted by ‘flag-waving picaninnies’ (derogatory term for black children)
   - Said women in burkas ‘look like letterboxes’
3. Minority ethnic groups concentrated in industrial urban centres
   - Initially offered unskilled working-class jobs

Question 35

How is the ethnic vote diminished?

Answer 35

There is only 51% turnout of BME voters compared to 67% of white voters.

Question 36

A03: Will the ethnic voter turnout increase or decrease?

Answer 36

• New voter ID might penalise ethnic minorities disproportionately
  Yet:
• Multiple examples of ethnic minorities in cabinet

Question 37

What is psephology?

Answer 37

A branch of political science that focuses on elections and voting behaviour. Psephologists use voting data, opinion polls, financial records etc to study the factors that influence elections.

Question 38

What are voting behaviour models?

Answer 38

• Theories on voting decisions
• Each model highlights different influencing factors
• Models can overlap
• Multiple models may explain election outcomes

Question 39

What are primary and recency factors?

Answer 39

Primary factors are long-term factors such as class, age, ethnicity and gender. Recency factors are short-term factors such as election campaigns, policies, debates and party leaders.

Question 40

What is the social structures/sociological model of voting behaviour?

Answer 40

• Importance of social groups and characteristics (class, gender, ethnicity, age, region)
• Shared interests: working class (public sector spending), young people (lower education costs, apprenticeships)
• Socialisation: learning beliefs/behaviours from family, friends, colleagues, community
• Information bias: trade unions (pro-Labour), business owners (pro-Conservative)

Question 41

What is the party identification model of voting behaviour?

Answer 41

Sees voters as psychologically attached to a particular party, identifying with them and supporting them in spite of any short-term factors.

Question 42

What do we mean by ‘social class’?

Answer 42

Different social groups whose members share economic, social or cultural characteristics. Until the 1970s, class was seen as the most important factor explaining voting behaviour.

Question 43

What is class alignment?

Answer 43

Where there is a clear and predictable link between class and voting behaviour.

Question 44

What evidence is there of class and party dealignment since 1974?

Answer 44

Since 1974, Tories have received greater support from the ABC1 groups than the Labour Party has, however, it’s equally clear that the gap between the two parties has greatly reduced. Whereas the Conservative were able to count on over half of the middle class vote in the eighties, today the party can’t be so confident. In 2010, the Conservatives received only 39% of the middle class vote compared to Labour’s 27%. It’s a similar picture with the skilled working class vote. Whereas the Labour Party once commanded around 50%, this was greatly reduced by 2010. And there’s been a great deal of inconsistency from election to election. The Conservatives have at times matched or even received more of the skilled working class vote.

Question 45

What factors might be causing class and partisan dealignment?

Answer 45

The UK has transitioned from an industrial to a post-industrial economy. Many working class unionised industries have declined significantly and manual labour jobs have been replaced with more jobs in service industry. As a result, many working class unionised communities have experienced a great deal of change. And this has disrupted the stable alignment that these communities once had with the Labour Party. Another factor is increased social mobility. This means the ability for people to change their position in society and to change their class. Originally, social class was very rigid and inflexible. If you were born into a working class family, you were likely to remain working class throughout your life. But arguably, improvements to access education and welfare has enabled more people to change their social class and this has led to a degree of embourgeoisement. The political parties have also aided dealignment by adopting policies that try and win over groups that don’t normally vote for them. The Tories under Thatcher made appeals to the working classes by selling council houses to make more people property owners. Labour under Blair made a huge effort to rebrand and win over business leaders and middle class voters. Declining party membership means that parties have fewer core voters and must reach out to floating voters with more centrist policies. There has also been significant growth in support for third parties like UKIP, Green Party, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

Question 46

How is the class system in the UK defined and how has it changed?

Answer 46

Class tends to be defined in terms of wealth/income and culture/education. Traditionally, the class system was relatively simple. However, the class system is now far more complicated and modern sociologists name seven classes. Traditionally (until the 1980s), class was the biggest indicator of voting intention. Each class would have a large core which would vote. A, B and C1 would largely vote Conservative, whereas C2, D and most of E would vote Labour. But it is important to note, that there was never a clear cut divide. Labour attracted the state sector middle-class, i.e. teachers, social workers, academics. Whereas the Conservatives attracted the patriotic working class.

Question 47

What shows a link between class and election turnout?

Answer 47

The wealthier are more likely to vote. In 2010, 76% of the highest classes voted, compared to 57% of the lowest classes.

Question 48

How has Brexit affected class dealignment?

Answer 48

It it vital to note that Brexit has furthered class dealignment farther than ever before. A large swathe of working class and traditional industrial areas vote for the Conservative Party as they wanted to ‘get Brexit done’.

Question 49

What is class dealignment?

Answer 49

Where people no longer vote according to their social class.

Question 50

Which social issues have become more important in determining voting pattern?

Answer 50

Immigration, civil and human rights, crime, welfare provision, attitudes to sex and sexuality, nationalism and the UK’s position within the world.

Question 51

What is the general consensus among “left behind voters” and who tends to fall under this demographic?

Answer 51

Traditionally working class, they believe that their lives and the country have change for the worst. They tend to be economically left wing (oppose austerity, support welfare spending, object to benefits for the wealthy) and culturally right wing (oppose or wish to restrict immigration, wish to retain British cultural identity, oppose the EU, and dislike political correctness and wokery). They also tend to be older, white, financially poor, less educated (typically only to GCSE level) and live in deprived areas, outside major cities.

Question 52

What impact have left behind voters had on politics in the las ten years?

Answer 52

Labour performed relatively poorly at general elections in 2015, 2017 and 2019.

Question 53

Did Jeremy Corbyn appeal to the left behind voters or alienate them further? Why?

Answer 53

He likely further alienated voters as his socially progressive views would have clashed with the typically culturally right-wing views of the left behind voters.

Question 54

It appears that in 2017 and 2019, Conservatives won the support of the “left behind voters”. Why is this so?

Answer 54

Left behind voters had cultural concerns over immigration and income inequality and had a perception that politics is dominated by a socially liberal, educated and urban elite, thus alienating them from Labour. Instead they gravitated towards UKIP first and then the Conservative Party.

Question 55

What factors are concerns of the left behind voters in 2024?

Answer 55

The most important factor in 2024 is likely immigration. Another issue may be ‘wokeness’ which has been exponentially on the rise.

Question 56

What do you think will be the effect if Reform UK in the next election on other parties?

Answer 56

I think they will take out a portion of both the Conservatives and Labour, but nothing substantial enough to make a major statement.

Question 57

What influence does gender have on voting behaviour?

Answer 57

Historically, the Tories got the most of its support from female rather than male voters. This is the case in nearly every election since 1974 with the exception of 2005 and 2010. And correspondingly, the Labour Party has tended to get more of its support from male voters. But this again has changed in the last couple of elections. Several explanations are commonly given for this gender divide. One argument is that until the last few decades women were less likely to be in plaid employment than men. And as a result women were less likely to be involved in trade unions, that were so strongly connected to the Labour Party. However, now that more women are in employment, this distinction has faded. In fact, many women today are employed in Public Sector jobs, which could explain the growth in support for Labour, which traditionally supported higher public spending and a larger public sector. Equally, New Labour placed an emphasis upon education policies and public services, which some commentators suggested helped them win additional female voters.

Question 58

What influence does ethnicity have on voting behaviour?

Answer 58

In 1997 there was a link between ethnicity and party support. The Tories got most of their support from white voters, but the Labour Party had much stronger support from non-white voters, as well as white voters. Again, several theories have been suggested as to why the Labour Party receives much stronger support from non-white voters. Some point towards the party’s track record of supporting and advancing the rights of ethnic minorities, with several ground-breaking pieces of legislation. Others point to the fact that in recent elections it’s been the Conservatives that are much more critical of immigration levels out of the two parties, and this might affect their support. A more detailed survey produced after the 2005 General Election pointed towards the Labour Party having much stronger support form ethnic minority voters. But some noticed that levels had slightly decreased since 1997. And it was speculated whether this could be down to the fact that in between the two elections was the start of the controversial war in Iraq. However, by the 2010 General Election, ethnic minority voters again appeared to be strongly aligned with the Labour Party.

Question 59

How does age influence voting patterns?

Answer 59

As Labour won with a landslide in 1997, they did well with all age groups but at then 2005 general election, the Conservatives did well with the older voters, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats got much stronger support from younger voters. It was a similar picture in 2010. Surveys show that younger voters are more egalitarian when it comes to economic policies, favouring a more equal distribution of wealth. They are also more in favour of equality and change on social issues like gay marriage. Whereas older voters are more sceptical about creating an equal society, more protective of their individual private property. They are also more conservative, more religious and less in favour of new positions of social issues.

Question 60

What influence does region have on voting behaviour?

Answer 60

When you look at the 1997 General Election results in England, you can see that as you move down the country, Labour support begins to drop and Conservative support begins to grow. With the exception of London, where Labour still performs very well. It was the same picture in 2005. In 2010 the regions changed slightly with the Conservatives performing better in the Midlands. But there is still a very clear north-south divide, with Labour performing better in the north and the Conservatives performing better in the south. In 2015 Labour again did best in the north and London, while Conservative support was strongest in the south. Lib Dem support collapsed consistently across the entire country while the support for the Green Party and UKIP was pretty consistent across the whole country. Northern England was historically home to working class industries like mining and steel works. Cities/towns containing large working class populations have also been safe Labour seats.

Question 61

Why is it difficult to make assumptions about the votes of all young voters, or all female voters?

Answer 61

Although group membership might influence voting behaviour, it does not determine it. Both a young working class man and a young middle class woman will be exposed to very different socialisation processes with conflicting interests and ideas.

Question 62

What is a swing?

Answer 62

A swing is the movement of voters from one party to another, shown as a percentage. It is calculated by averaging the percentage fall for one party and the percentage rise of another party.

Question 63

What was an example of a swing in 1997?

Answer 63

In the 1997 general election, the Labour vote was up by 8.8 percentage points and the Conservative vote was down by 11.2 percentage points. So on average there was a 10.3% swing from the Conservatives to Labour.

Question 64

Give an example of swing in 2015

Answer 64

The 2015 general election was also quite volatile with 111 seats changing hands. The Liberal Democrats lost millions of votes whilst UKIP greatly increased their support from 2010. The national swing can mask significant variation across the country (differential swing). In 2015 the Scots Labour MP Willie Bain lost his seat in a record breaking 39% swing from Labour to the SNP in Glasgow North East.

Question 65

What is churn?

Answer 65

Even if few seats change hands, and party votes remain stable, this does not mean that most people voted for the same party as in the previous election.

Question 66

What is the rational choice model of voting behaviour?

Answer 66

Argues that voters evaluate the parties and make a conscious choice based on a range of factors like their policies and reputation. Even though people agree on this model, many disagree on how to go about our rational choice of which party to support.

Question 67

What is the spatial model of voting behaviour?

Answer 67

• Stresses the importance of positional votes and issues
• Theorises that parties will win if their policies match their positions taken by the average, majority voter.
• Suggests parties are going to end up moving closer to the political centre and actively avoid more extreme positions.

Question 68

What are salient issues?

Answer 68

The issues that are considered to be the most important in an election: economy, healthcare, education, taxation, crime and immigration.

Question 69

How are valence issues different to positional issues?

Answer 69

Far less likely to have such division and does not require great political understanding.

Question 70

What is the valence model of voting behaviour?

Answer 70

Parties will win if they appear to be the most capable of delivering good results on valence issues. Voters do not hold many positions and instead vote for the party most capable.

Question 71

What factors influence valence voters?

Answer 71

Voters use shortcuts like party leaders, the party’s overall reputation and the actual business brand that the party has created for itself to decide.

Question 72

Why could ‘rational choice’ voting still be shaped by long-term factors? What are the limitations of the rational choice model?

Answer 72

Evaluations of a party’s positions, and judgements of their capability are likely to be influenced by social groups and party identification. The rational choice model cannot entirely explain voting behaviour as humans are not entirely rational.

Question 73

What limitations are there to the rational choice model of voting?

Answer 73

It does not explain:
- why voters feel differently about different issues/positions
- how they vote when there is no overriding issues/positions

Question 74

What issues are there with the spatial model of voting?

Answer 74

1. Stresses the importance of the divisive positional issues - the party which will win is the one who has the policies which are aligned with the greatest amount of public views on these issues
2. Parties will move to the centre ground
3. They change from election to election
4. Voters decide mainly on crime, immigration, education, economy and taxation.

Question 75

What is the economic voting model?

Answer 75

Voters will vote for who they believe will best manage the economy

Question 76

What economic factors are considered in the economic voting model?

Answer 76

Inflation, unemployment, interest rates and taxation

Question 77

What is the ‘feel good factor’?

Answer 77

A broad sense of economic well-being?

Question 78

Give two occasions on which the economic voting model has been advantageous for the Conservatives?

Answer 78

• Public anger over the ‘winter of discontent’ played a major part of their 1972 election victory
• The absence of the ‘feel good factor’ also worked to their advantage in 2010

Question 79

Why are people more likely to vote based on party leaders than policies?

Answer 79

The media focus on the leader has increased with the personalisation of politics and media linked “spatial leadership”. There is now 24/7 media coverage as well as leadership debates.

Question 80

Compare Thatcher as a successful party leader and Foot as an unsuccessful party leader

Answer 80

1983: Margaret Thatcher, who appeared as a strong, nationalistic leader after victory in the Falklands defeated Michael Foot, who was considered scruffy and was particularly criticised for wearing a ‘donkey jacket’ (an untailed work jacket) when laying a wreath on Remembrance Sunday.

Question 81

Compare Blair as a successful party leader and Major as an unsuccessful party leader

Answer 81

1997: The young, charismatic and media-savvy Tony Blair defeated the ‘straw man’ or ‘grey man’ John Major, who was considered to be weak and boring.

Question 82

Compare successful party leader May and unsuccessful party leader Corbyn

Answer 82

2017: The austere and arrogant Theresa May ran a poor campaign and lost seats but defeated the ideological Jeremy Corbyn who made gains but still suffered from party divisions and concerns about his competence.

Question 83

Compare successful party leader Johnson and unsuccessful party leader Corbyn

Answer 83

2019: Boris Johnson had a clear message on the central issue of Brexit and a popular personal image, allowing him to defeat the ideological Jeremy Corbyn, who produced a manifesto that did not resonate with voters and had seen his reputation for leadership decline dramatically since the previous election.

Question 84

What are Rishi Sunak’s strengths and weaknesses?

Answer 84

Strengths: safe image, perception of being middle of the road
Weaknesses: hindrance as he is not leading a united party and is easily pushed over by his colleagues, suffers from the legacy of Truss and Johnson, trying to lead on manipulation, lacks charisma

Question 85

What are Keir Starmer’s strengths and weaknesses?

Answer 85

Strengths: Leading a party widely united on key issues, moderate, cool under pressure
Weaknesses: Has reversed many key policies for a manifesto to buy voters from the Tories, resentment in the party over Corbyn, lacks charsima

Question 86

What are Ed Davey’s strengths and weaknesses?

Answer 86

Strengths: His party and himself have remained steadfast in the issues they campaign for, he has experience
Weaknesses: The representation of his party in parliament is too low to make any significant moves, he is unknown.

Question 87

What is the dominant ideology model of voting behaviour?

Answer 87

This model argues that voters are influenced by the ideology of powerful elites, who, through their role in the media, businesses etc. are in a position to project ideas that suit their interests

Question 88

How are the rules for broadcasting and print media different?

Answer 88

TV channels are expected to be impartial and give fair/even coverage. However there are frequent accusations of bias toward one party. Yet newspapers/websites are not legally required to be impartial. They take clear positions on divisive political issues and endorse particular parties at elections.

Question 89

What concerns are thereover the ownership of UK newspapers?

Answer 89

Many UK newspapers are owned by a handful of extremely wealthy individuals whose interests are served by right-wing, rather than left-wing, parties.

Question 90

What is cognitive dissonance?

Answer 90

A term used by psychologists to describe the stress we can feel when confronted by information that conflicts with our existing beliefs.

Question 91

What is selective exposure?

Answer 91

Selective exposure is avoiding political coverage that is likely to conflict with our beliefs and ideas.

Question 92

What is selective perception?

Answer 92

Selective perception is interpreting facts in such a way that they do not contrast with our beliefs.

Question 93

What is selective retention?

Answer 93

Selective retention is remembering things that fit in with our beliefs and forgetting things that do not.

Question 94

What is the direct effect theory of media influence?

Answer 94

When the media can directly effect how we think about political issues and how we vote.

Question 95

What is the agenda setting theory of media influence?

Answer 95

The media may not change how we think but it can influence what we think. TV channels are not supposed to be partisan but the papers still decide what gets broadcast and what doesn’t. The media will tell you your priorities.

Question 96

What is the framing theory of media influence?

Answer 96

The media can subtly frame issues to influence how we think about them. Following his election as Labour leader, Ed Miliband was frequently portrayed as a socialist, far from the political centre.

Question 97

What is the reinforcement theory of media influence?

Answer 97

We choose media that agrees with, rather than challenges, our existing political views.

Question 98

What is the importance of a free media in a democratic country?

Answer 98

It plays an essential role in holding governments to account, especially when parliamentary opposition is weak, as it was for much of the New Labour.

Question 99

What concerns exist over the media?

Answer 99

There are concerns about the role of the media in politics. Popular newspapers, in particular, tend to present an unduly simplified interpretation of political issues, focussing excessively on personalities.

Question 100

What did the media traditionally offer?

Answer 100

• accurate reporting
• commentary
• education for the public
• a forum for debate

Question 101

How has the media changed?

Answer 101

Now:
- overly partisan
- created a mood of cynicism
- focused on ‘crisis rather than concerns’
- focused on personalities - ‘celebrity politicians’

Question 102

How do online platforms further distort media?

Answer 102

• more partisan
• more opinion orientated
• superficially aware but less engaged -> quick news

Question 103

In what election could it be said that the importance of media was initially felt?

Answer 103

It was first felt at the 2010 election as 82% of households now had internet. Political parties, therefore, made extensive use of the internet to reach the electorate. Most MPs had their own websites, which became the most important way for the public to learn about their activities and communicate with them.

Question 104

Why is the media particularly relevant to the young?

Answer 104

A survey on the eve of the 2015 general election indicated that 79% of 18-24 year olds relied totally on online sources to inform themselves while 59% depended on social media to discover others’ opinions on politics.

Question 105

How can it be said that there is a ‘digital divide’?

Answer 105

Older people are much more likely to turn out to vote and yet get there news from the press and television, and from reading contributions of columnists and commentators and their interpretations of events.

Question 106

What were the pre-internet ‘spin doctors’?

Answer 106

A press secretary appointed to give a favourable interpretation of events to the media.

Question 107

Does the Sun switching to Labour in 1997 suggest the media influenced election results?

Answer 107

Yes: After Blair met with Murdoch, the Sun, and much of the rest of the press, declared support for Labour, leading to many voters switching their alliance.
No: The press was simply reacting to the prevailing mood of the time, reflected in the polls, which were clearly swinging towards Labour.

Question 108

Does the 2010 MPs expenses scandal suggest the media influenced election results?

Answer 108

Yes: It undermined the reputation of all MPs and led to many losing their seats and the Labour government being rejected at the polls.
No: Despite his cynicism, turnout was 4% higher than in 2005 and Labour was set to lose anyway after dealing with the fallout of 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Question 109

Does the 2015 leaders debate suggest that media influenced election results?

Answer 109

Yes: The TV debate caused issues for all participants, apart from Sturgeon. Miliband’s fall from the stage and over-excited ‘hell yes, I’m tough enough’ made him appear less prime ministerial than Cameron.
No: Opinion polls suggest the debate made no real difference to voting intentions, merely confirming existing impressions of the leaders.

Question 110

Does the 2017 leaders debate suggest that media influenced election results?

Answer 110

Yes: May’s refusal to participate became a means of attacking her and a potential weakness. After Corbyn participated in the seven-way debate and performed better than expected, Labour improved in credibility.
No: May went on to win more votes than Cameron had in 2010 or 2015. Corbyn still lost and third-party performers who did well in the debate saw no improvement in their vote shares.

Question 111

Does the 2019 election suggest the media influences election results?

Answer 111

Yes: Tories paid for 2500 Facebook adverts compared to Labour’s 250. These are a form of targeted advertising which by-pass current regulations overseen by the Electoral Commission and may have contributed to Conservative victory.
No: In the same election, the Lib Dems paid for 3000 Facebook adverts. While their share of the vote did increase from 2017, they lost seats, suggesting that online advertising alone does not explain electoral success.

Question 112

What is the voting context model of voting behaviour?

Answer 112

Argues that voting behaviour will vary depending on the type of election, and the circumstances facing each voter. The consequences of an individual’s vote can vary greatly in different elections.

Question 113

What factors might explain the very different results in general elections and EU elections?

Answer 113

Conservatives have far stronger support than UKIP at general election but UKIP actually came first in the 2014 EU Parliament Election. Different elections use different systems - GEs use FPTP and EU uses CPL.

Question 114

What are by-elections and when are they held?

Answer 114

Elections held to fill positions in-between general elections - most commonly used because the incumbent MP has resigned or died.

Question 115

Why is voting behaviour usually different in by-elections compared to general elections?

Answer 115

Because voters will use by-elections to reflect their opinion on the government’s current performance. Often voters will make a protest vote. This is where voters do not vote for their preferred party in order to send a message that they are unhappy with its current performance. This is more common in by-elections, and other, less high profile elections, as the stakes are much lower.

Question 116

What is tactical voting?

Answer 116

Tactical voting is where voters do not vote for their first choice because they have little chance of winning in their constituency. They instead vote for their second choice, who has a better chance of defeating the party they dislike the most.

Question 117

How are exit polls different to normal opinion polls?

Answer 117

Opinion polls are surveys asking people how they intend to vote. They are carried out by professional polling companies hired by newspapers and the parties. Exit polls are when voters are asked how they just voted on election day.

Question 118

What are the bandwagon and boomerang effects?

Answer 118

The Bandwagon effect is when voters will ‘jump on the bandwagon’ and vote for the leading party. The Boomerang effect is when voters sympathise with the underdog, while the leading party becomes complacent.