voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
what are the social class compositions
A -upper middle class- judges, top civil servants ect
B - middle class - teachers lawyers accountants
C1- lower middle class - shop owners, lower mangerial
C2 - skilled workers- aspirational working class - builders, electricians, hairdressers
D- working class - semi skilled - unskilled factory workers
E- working class - casual workers, long term unemployed,
class based voting and partisan dealignment
partisan dealignment refers to the decline of class based voting
since the 1970s this has happened
in the 1970 general election edward heath recieved a surpsise victory over harold Wilson. in this election the conservatives won a large number of traditional labour seats, following the Enoch Powells ‘rivers of blood’ speech in 1968, significant numbers of working class felt that immigration would be more tightly controlled by conservatives.
since 1970s results have seemingly been determined by governments competance and importance of specefic issues rather than according to class
for example the 1979 election, thatcher startled political commentators by launching the conservative campaign in labour supporting cardiff. in fact this was a clever attempt to disassociate the party from being too middle class.
the campaigns focus on inflation and addressing the strikers during the winter of discontent was so popular that there was an 11% swing to the conservatives by C2 voters and 9% by DE voters
like thatcher, blair was also good at broadening labours appeal. he increased labours share of the vote in all social categories as welll as winning majority of support of all ages with the progressive appeal of new labour.
in the 2017 general election corbyn made dramatic in roads into the AB category while theresa may made strking gains with DE voters. this was due to pro europeans in higher social classes wanting to punish conservatives for Brexit while large numbers of DE thought conservatives were more likely to deliver on brexit and immigration.
regions
the south east - the most prosperous region in the uk - the conservatives do disproportionately well here.
the ethically white parts of the UK are also classic conservative territories like Devon
labour on the other hand dominates ethnically-diverse big cities with large working class populations. places like greater Manchester
as a general rule, the industrial north of england is more likely to vote laour and the south of england conservative
the liberal democracts have fared disproportionately badly out of the UKs FPTP system because they have fewer areas of concentrated support. since 1950 orkney and shetland have always returned a liberal/lib dem mp to westminister
london - 55% labour, 33% conservative.
south - 29% labour 54% conservative.
north - labour 53% conservative 37%
in most general elections majority of seats do not change hands - in 2017 only 71 out of 650 - 11% changed hands.
the key battlegrounds which have disproportionately decided the result of the general elections have been London and the midlands where conservatives and labour focus their resources.
however recent elections have challenged number of accepted principles of regional voting behaviour. this suggests that voter dealignment is influencing both class and regional voting as public increasingly votes according too to issues rather than traditional loyalties. this is most notably seen in scotland and London.
scotland -
traditionally provided labour with large parliamentary support while conservatives, lib dems and SNP got significantly fewer. conservatives so unpopular they recieved no seats in the 1997 general election.
however SNP became biggest party in holyrood and ran such a high profile campaign during the 2014 referendum completely changed the political landscape.
In the 2015 general election the SNP won 56 of the 59 scottish seats at westministe. 2017 then provided another shock result with conservatives under charismatic ruth davidson winning 13 seats to become the second biggest scottish party.
scottish politics has become so unpredictable and unstable during recent general elections - 2010 labour 41 seats vs 2017 7, conservatives 2010 1 seat vs 2017 13 and SNP 2010 6 seats vs 2015 56 seats vs 2017 35 seats.
London
soaring cost of home ownership as well as dramatic levels of inequality have significantly damaged conservatives in greater london and the way in which london voted decisively voted to remain in the EU has further damaged the conservative party in london since voters associated it most closely with euroscepticism. Labours multicultural values have further entrenched its support in the capital making London increasingly labour dominated.
2010 labour 38 seats vs 2017 49 seats.
the fact that there were a number of surprise constituency results in 2017 suggests that voter dealignment across the country may increasingly challenge the traditional dominance of political parties in certain regions.
the conservatives association with brexit and stricter controls on immigration provided them with victories in traditional working class seats such as mansfield which had been labour since 1923.
Then Labours more cosmopolitcan outlook and more consistent opposition to brexit enabled it to win seats like canterbury which had been conservative since 1918.
Age
influence of age on how we vote is significant.
conservatives support is among older voters while labour and Lib Dems have generally won the support of younger voters.
conservatives have policies which appeal more to older voters - lower taxation, strong national defence, law and order. these appeal more to older property owners who have more savings and finances than younger voters. for example in 2017 older people who had paid of their mortgages were much more likely to vote conservative while younger people who rented voted labour.
young voters more likely to be concerned with issues such as social justice and the environment so more likely to vote labour, lib dems or greens. eg in 2017 jeremy corbyn successfully connected with young people by emphasising that labour was on the side of ‘the many not the few’. his pledge to abolition tuition fees further entrenched labour support amoung the youth, as did his pledge to use united nations to resolve world problems.
18-24 year olds - 62% labour vs 27% conservatives
65+ - 25% labour vs 61% conservatives
in terms of election success, conservatives have benfitted from the gerater support from older people as they are more likely to vote than young people. provides conservatives with an in built advantage.
however in the 2017 general election, Corbyns youth focused campaign encouraged more young people to vote than in any general election since 1992. but even in 2017 there was still a significant imbalance.
in 2017 18-24yos turnout 54% wheras 65+ turnout 71%
labour and conservatives have been most successful when they reach beyond their core age support. eg in 1997 labour achieved a 5% lead over the conservatives among voters 65+, helping tony blair to his landslide victory. while in thatchers 1979 victory she had a 1% lead over labour among 18-24yo.
ethnicity
ethnicity determining voting behaviour is also significant.
historically since Commonwealth immigrant communities were generally within C2, D and E classes, they were more likely to vote labour due to its high spending on the welfare state and and close association with the trade union movement.
labours commitment to multiculturalism like how they introduced the first race relations acts in 1965, 1968 and 1976 have further provided it with a historical connection to these immigrant communities. Wheras conservatives historically seemed hostile to immigrant communities like the influence of enoch powell whose ‘rivers of blood’ speech in 1968 called for an end to commonwealth immigration.
in the 2017 general election corbyns strong empathy for immigrant communities contributed to labour winning 49 of the 73 seats in Greater London, which has a population of just 45% white british.
east ham also shows how labour is favoured by ethnic diverse areas the non white population is 77% and in 2017 labour won 83.2% of the vote vs just 12% conservative.
the conservatives held just 5 of the 75 most ethnically diverse constituencys in the 2017 GE.
2017 - labour share of ethnic minority vote 73% vs 19% conservative.
Education
the impact of education on determining voting behaviour significantly changed in the 2017 GE.
Traditionally those with higher educational qualifications who comprise the top social were more likely to vote conservative.
however in 2017 there was remarkable change in voting patterns with conservatives increasing support among those in the lowest social bands and labour achieving higher levels of support among those with degrees in the top brackets.
this could be an anomaly or may also be part of trend where conservatives have more closely aligned themselves with stricter controls on immigration thereby increasing support among white working class voters who feel threatened by globalisation so voted for brexit in 2016. On other hand then labours more liberal approach to immigration and brexit dramatically increased its support among better educated more cosmopolitan voters who voted remain.
GE 2017 degree or higher labour 48% vs no qualifications 52% conservatives
gender
influence pf gender in determining result of general election has changed since the end of WW2. from 1945 until the 1980s labours close association with male dominated trade unionism and reputation for allowing inflation to spiral ,so hitting family finances, provided the conservatives with a powerful opportunity to appeal to the housewives vote. 1979 Thatcher articulated womens concerns that labour governments had allowed inflation to undermine family fianances and that irresposible trade unionism was pulling society apart. GE 1979 conservative female 47% vs labour female 35%.
however the conservatives traditional lead among female voters has been challenged by labour. This could be due to conservatives emphasis on national defense and association with euroscepticism and labours focus on education, social care and NHS resonates more with women.
2017 GE - conservative female 43% vs labour female 42%.
although the overall gap is minimal it is striking that among young voters in the 2017 GE women were dramtically more likely to vote labour. Among 18-24yos just 18% of women voted conservative and 73% voted labour wheras for men 36% voted conservatives and 52% labour.
however this result may have been caused by a reaction against certain male conservative politicians.
men and women increasingly play similar roles in the family and workplace so the gender gap may diminish as a factor determining voting behaviour.
how governing competance affects voting
with decline of traditional voting loyalties since the 1970s and the rise of partisan dealignment.
a core reason why voters choose to vote in the way they do involves a valence judgement on the effectiveness of the government.
valance - relative success or failure of a governments policies.
if swing voters are reassured that the government is competant they will be less likely to vote for opposition. But if the government seems unable to cope with challenges this will encourage swing voters to vote a new government.
successes-
conservative poster from 1959 saying ‘lifes better with the conservatives, don’t let labour ruin it’ is an example of how the valence influence of competency can be utilised by a party to win. on this occasion the remarkable prosperity under conservatives rewarded macmillian with a 100 seat majority over labour.
1966 - after 2 years in power harold wilsons labour still looked energetic and good with little industrial unrest. With new untried leader Edward heath in conservatives Wilson called snap election and dramatically increased his majority to over 100.
1983 thatchers government had successfully bought inflation down so fulfilling its manifesto commitments. Her leadership during falklands war and the unity of her cabinet reinforced the governments reputation of strength.
unsuccessful -
feb 1974 edward heath called a snap general election in response to miner strikes. His decision to use general election to assert governments authority lead to this being known as the ‘who governs britain’ general election. many voters saw this as evidence that an incompetant government had lost control of the nation.
1979 - the inability of labour PM james callaghan to stop the dramatic escalation of strikes during the winter of discontent undermined public faith in the government. This was made worse by how his attempts to reassure the country were misquoted in the press as ‘crisis? what crisis?. swing voters consequently voted conservatives believing thatcher was more likely to confront growing power of trade unionism.
leadership
the image the party leader projects has become increasingly important now that people are less likely to vote according to social class. eg PMs like Macmillian in 1959 won as he was able to present himself as coolly competent and in charge of events. eg Boris advertised himself as charismatic.
1983 Thatcher reputation of strong and focused wheras Michael foot failed to inspire, he looked his 70 years.
in 2001 Tony Blair dominated the political landscape with his charismatic personality so there was little reason to vote for a weak divided opposition under william hague.
Opposition leaders
sometimes opposition leaders can generate support by capturing the mood of the nation. in 1997 the energy of tony Blairs campaign and his attractive self-confidence had huge appeal in the country in contrast to John majors reputation for dithering weak leadership.
Thatcher 1979 successfully focused the GE on the governments failure to confront the growing power of trade unionism.
in 2010 David cameron succeeded in focusing the GE on the huge increase in national debt under Gordon Brown. This contributed to labour losing but fact conservatives didnt get majority was due to strong showing by lib dems under nick clegg.
on the other hand some opposition leaders can fail to engage with the public and even lose support.
Michael Howard 2005 GE , he succeeded in reducing Tony Blairs majority however lingering memories of Anne Widdecombes jibe that ‘there was something of the night’ about him meant that he could not inspire widespread popular support. His support for the Iraq war also ensured that the anti war vote went to the lib dems.
ed miliband 2005 GE failed to persuade enough voters that he had the strength to be PM. Having him publically unveil a 9ft stone tablet with his campaign promises carved into it backfired when it was ridiculed as ‘the heaviest suicide note in history’
Liberal Democrat and minority party leadership
although every modern prime minister has been a member of either the conservative or Labour Party, the leadership of other political parties has often been important in determining the result of a GE.
Feb 1974 GE - ‘who governs britain?’ GE, jeremy Thorpe provided an exciting alternative to voters tired with the other parties. as a result the liberals increased their share of the vote by 11.8%. By holding the balance of power, Thorpe was able to force the resignation of edward Heath as PM.
2010 - first election in which televised leaders debates were held in the uk. NIck cleggs engaging personality made him the clear winner forcing both gordon brown and david cameron to admit ‘i agree with nick’ . Lib dems also focused on cleggs trustworthiness. The 57 lib dems elected denied cameron a majority, leading to the first coalition government since 1945.
The impact of Nigel Farage as UKIP Leader in the 2015 general election was also significant. Althought UKIP was expected to win votes at the expense of the conservatives there relentless focus on immigration made it a pivotal among the working class and so took potenial votes from labour, helping conservatives win key marginal seats. This is clearly demonstrated in the results of the vale of Clwyd - 2010 labour 42.3% vs 2015 labour 38.4% and UKIP 13%. Although UKIP only won clacton, its success in achieveing 12.6% of the popular vote had major influence in determining the result.
In Scotland a extraordinarily effective campaign by Nicola Sturgeon in 2015 led to labour loseing 40 seats North of the border, undermining Ed milibands hopes of forming a government.
2 years later Ruth davidson leader of scottish conservatives also ran effective campaign winning the conservatives 13 scottish seats , highest number since 1983 and without them theresa may would not have been able to form government.
the popularity of the party leader
although the party leader can be important in winning support, this does not mean that they need to have positive approval ratings across the electorate.
2015 although nigel farage had the worst approval rating of any party leader, he succeeded in making immigration a key issue, dramatically imcreasing UKIPS vote among the working class
2017 - when GE announced YouGov found that 50% of voters thought May would make the best PM compared to just 14% for Corbyn. Although Corbyn never achieved as good approval ratings as may his more optimistic campaign increased the labour share of the vote 9.6%.
do campaigns influence the result of a general election?
can be significant in determining result. The socialist rhetoric of labours 1983 campaign appealed only to its core vote and failed to engage middle class swing voters who were beginning to benefit from thatchers tax cuts,.
yes
although some campaigns may simply reinforce existing attitudes, others may challenge them, espicially if it is a tight race. The growth of partisan dealignment suggests that campaigns do increasingly matter as voters are much more flexible.
In the Feb 1974 GE the liberal party under jeremy thorpe cleverly exploited widespread discontent with edward heath and harold Wilson. In an effective campaign a few days before the vote thorpe called on lib voters to ‘stand firm. dont be bullied. together we can make history’ - as a result the liberal share of the vote increased by 11.8%.
in 1992 John Majors decision to abandon stage-managed events and take his soap box to town centres was in marked contrast to Neil kinnocks rally. This changed the dynamic of the election providing the conservatives with an unexpected victory.
in 2010 strong lib dem campaign inc nick cleggs impressive performance in the televised debates significantly increased lib dem support, mostly at expense of conservatives leading to a hung parliament and coalition.
in 2017 jeremy corbyns optimistic rallys and popular manifesto such as ending tuition fees contrasted with Mays uninspiring campaign appearences and the unpopular dimentia tax so as a result labour increased its support as campaign progressed from less that 30% to getting 40% in the GE.
NO
according to some the influence of the campaign can be exaggerated since voters have generally already made up their mind
in the 1950s and 60s class allegiance meant campaigns did little to sway votes
in 1970 Edward heaths campaign was dismissed as bland and uninspiring and plans had been drawn up by some conservatives to force his resignation when he lost however he had surprise victory over harold Wilson
in 1987 although labour ran a dynamic and much praised campaign showcasing neil kinnock as a strong potenial PM, the conservatives win a 3rd election victory with a 102 seat majority.
in 1997 john major decided on a long campaign in hoped to reduce Blairs lead however the polls barely changed
in spite of a poor conservative campaign in 2017 GE the conservatives still managed to increase their share of the vote from 36.9% in 2015 to 42.4% in 2017. This equalled the share thatcher got in the 1983 GE with a much stronger campaign.
are voting trends a problem for UK democracy
yes -
in the 1992 GE, 77% of the electorate voted. in the 1997 GE it fell to 71% and since then turnout has been significantly lower as disillusion/apathy with politicians has increased.
this disillusion was caused by concerns that in a period of blairite consenus politics voting hardly mattered since the policies of the main parties were so similar. eg in 2001 just 59% of the electorate voted and only 61% in 2005.
disillusion has been especially associated with younger people and poorer social categories. sometimes known as left behind voters.
in 2005 only 34% of young people 18-24 voted.
in 2015 GE the 10 seats with the fewest voters were all in the lowest income bracket eg manchester central with only 44%
the failure of young people and DE people voting has given the conservatives an advantage in GE since it has been able to rely on vote of older and more prosperous voters.
the disengagement of poorer social classes has meant there has been less urgency to represent their interests at westminister.
NO
political apathy was a major conern in 2001 and 2005. the disengagement was due to period of consenus politics and blairs victory being assumed. This discouraged voting but doesn’t indicate long term trends where voting steadily increased after 2010 65% 2017 69%.
the 2017 GE result although disappointing by the 1992 standard was the highest turnout since 1997.
The surge of interest in Corbyn ensured that in 2017 the vote among 18-24yo was closer to 60%. although lower than other age brackets, was a huge increase on 2005 and shows young people will vote when big issues are at stake.
concerns that the conservatives have been unfairly advantaged by political apathy among DE voters may be less significant as conservatives increasingly challenge labour for votes in this category due to its more focus on immigration.
corbyns ‘for the many, not the few’ campaign demonstrates that, in spite of lower than average turnout by poorer voters, their interests are not ignored by political leaders.
the manifesto
where a political party will explain the policies upon which it will govern.
two examples that demonstrate the influence of a partys manifesto is labours ones of 1987 and 1992
1987- labours manifesto did not commit to the UKs nuclear deterrent. This enabled conservatives to claim that labour could not be trusted on defence - their campaign poster saying labours policy on arms and having a soilder surrendering.
1992 - labours claim to increase public spending allowed the conservatives to successfully claim that a labour gov wld mean a ‘tax bombshell’ for every family
on both these occasions the manifesto helped contribute to conservative victory.
in the 2017 GE the conservatives policy of having elderly people contribute to the cost of their care in an attempt to provide a fairer system of care, it was dubbed the ‘dementia tax’ by the press stalled the conservative campaign wheras the labours manifesto committment to abolish tuition fees provided the party with a dramatic boost.
