Voting Behaviour and the Media

Question 1

What are the pros of public opinion polls?

Answer 1

-sample can be representative and robust
-makes people feel like their voices are heard

Question 2

What are the cons of public opinion polls?

Answer 2

-Difficult to track
-Isn’t always right
-Interviewer bias
-Push poll

Question 3

How important is regional voting in voting behaviour?

Answer 3

Quite important
Scotland- traditionally Labour but SNP dominance now, since 2015 main opposition were Tories, specific social and economic problems in Scotland bc of devolution and Brexit so they want centred policies and New Right policies (opposed to London)
Wales- Heavy Labour bias (favoured by industrial areas) but strong Tory support in rural areas and for LibDems, far West likely to vote nationalist (Plaid Cymru)
Northern Ireland- Has its own party system with split between unionist (Sinn Fein) and nationalist (DUP) parties, party votes reflect religious and cultural divisions in NI, 2019 showed shift towards nationalist parties
London- majority vote Labour, increasing ethnic diversity, more socially liberal than other regions
Industrial north of England- Mostly Labour bc higher levels of unemployment, more poverty, urban decay and ethnic diversity, until 2019 when the ‘red wall’ collapsed so turned Tory in many areas bc of anti-EU/nationalistic feelings
Home counties- mostly Conservative, London commute belt, mostly white, economically prosperous

Question 4

How important is class in voting behaviour?
(2019 GE data)

Answer 4

Not important
Core voters for Tories- classes A,B and some C1
Core voters for Labour- C2,D and E (working class)
2019 GE data:
ABC1- 33% Labour, 43% Tory
C2DE- 33% Labour, 48% Tory
Green vote strongest among AB classes
Labour’s vote share decreased by 7-9% among all classes since 2017
Conservative vote shares went up in C2 and DE classes

Question 5

What is partisan dealignment?

Answer 5

The idea that people are less committed to one particular party, and will take into consideration multiple issues before casting their vote.

Question 6

What are floating (swing) voters?

Answer 6

Voters who aren’t loyal to a party so open to persuasion.

Question 7

How important is gender in voting behaviour?
(2017 and 2019 GE data)

Answer 7

Not very important
All parties make a concerted effort to target women, eg. in 2019 the Tories made a policy to address gender inequality and tackle issues of domestic violence
2017- Labour committed to conducting a gender impact assessment on all legislation and policies
2014- LibDems Jo Swinson’s campaign to push for equal pay and childcare supervision
Women preferred Tories bc of 1970 election- Ted Heath promised economic stability and protection for the price of weekly shop which appealed to women (mothers)
But, this changed in 1997 under Blair as he introduced women only shortlists to increase no. of women in Parliament
2017 GE data- 6% advantage to Tories among men, women were equally split between 2 main parties
2019 GE data- Tories won 15% more of male vote and 9% more of female vote than Labour

Question 8

How important is age in voting behaviour?

Answer 8

Very important
Younger voters- 56% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour in 2019, 52% turnout
Older voters- 67% of 70+ voters voted Tory in 2019, 82% turnout
Conservatives- appeal to elderly through NHS, pensions, Law and Order, eg. triple lock pensions
Labour- appeal to younger people through policies about uni fees, youth unemployment and housing for young people

Question 9

What age do people change over from being Labour supporters to Conservative voters?

Answer 9

39

Question 10

Who are ‘left behind’ voters?

Answer 10

A group of people who feel left behind by economic and social reforms- they believe lives have changed for the worse. Tend to be economically left but culturally right, eg. older, white. financially poorer, less educated

Question 11

How important is ethnicity in voting behaviour?

Answer 11

Very important
2019- white people made up 48% of Tory vote and 29% of Labour vote, ethnic minorities made up 20% of Tory vote and 64% of Labour vote.
Minority ethnic voters favour Labour bc:
-Enoch Powell- members of Tory party expressed anti-minority views, eg. Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech (1968), where he criticised the Labour gov’s immigration and anti-discrimination legislation, Boris Johnson used racially offensive language before he was PM, said women in burkas look like ‘letterboxes’ which alienates minority groups
-Living location as they mainly live in industrial urban centres like London, Birmingham and Manchester, initally offered unskilled working-class jobs that put them into the C2 category, benefited from Labour’s policies of social equality
Minority ethnic groups less likely to vote in elections than white groups. In 2019 GE, their turnout was 52%, while 63% turnout for white groups, 87.1% of British population is white, Labour doesn’t have an advantage

Question 12

What is rational choice theory?

Answer 12

Assumes that voters will make a rational judgement based on what is in their own interests. Voters would ideally be fully informed about various options and will choose the best option. The assumption is that a voter will conduct a cost/benefit analysis of all options and make a choice accordingly.

Question 13

What is issue or salient voting?

Answer 13

Voters place one issue above all others and cast their vote based on that issue. They judge a party/candidate by their position on that issue and choose the one that most closely reflects their opinion. They can vote for a candidate whose other policies would be to their detriment.

Question 14

What are economic or valence issues?

Answer 14

A valence issue is one where voters make a judgement based on performance and who’s best able to deliver a desired outcome, usually centred on management of the economy. Voters cast their vote based on who will best deliver a strong and successful economy.

Question 15

What is governing competency?

Answer 15

Politicians will be rewarded if they deliver a strong economy but punished at the polls if the economy fails. The perceived ability of the government, or opposition, to manage the affairs of the country well.

Question 16

What is tactical voting?

Answer 16

The process of using your vote to prevent another candidate from winning, rather than voting for your first choice of candidate. It happens in seats with a third candidate who has no realistic chance of winning. (need to change FPTP to stop this)

Question 17

What is social voting?

Answer 17

-People are influenced by their shared membership of a particular social group.
-People are likely to cast their vote in solidarity with other members of their social group.
-Social voting behaviour allows political parties to tailor policies towards key groups.

Question 18

What is individual voting?

Answer 18

-People decide how to cast their vote based on their individual preferences.
-People are likely to vote on the basis of what is best for them, rather than what is best for others.
-Makes it harder for political parties to aggregate public opinions into workable policy initiatives.

Question 19

What are the 6 short-term factors that determine voting behaviour?

Answer 19

Policy
Key issues
Performance in office
Leadership
Image
Tactical voting

Question 20

How do policy, key issues and performance in office affect voting behaviour?

Answer 20

Policy- voters consider the policies presented in the party manifestos and make a decision based on which set of policies suits them best (rational choice theory in action). Eg. In 1983 Labour had a big electoral defeat as their manifesto was described as the ‘longest suicide note in history’ because it contained policies of unilateral nuclear disarmament, higher personal taxation for rich, withdrawal from EU, abolition of House of Lords and re-nationalisation of previously privatised industries
Key issues- Party campaigns increasingly focus on a clear message about one issue they think will win them the election as voters increasingly cast their vote based on the issue that’s most important to them. Eg. In 2017 May promised ‘Brexit means Brexit’ so we would firstly leave the EU and its institutions. In 2019 Johnson promised to ‘Get Brexit Done’ so to facilitate the UK’s withdrawal from the EU by the end of January the following year.
Performance in office- Voters tend to simplify the election into a referendum on the current government. If the economy does well, the government is rewarded and the opposition is given a chance to govern. Eg. The global recession of 2007-2008 caused Gordon Brown to lose the 2010 election as there was a £176bn hole in Britain’s public finances and to fix this Brown made taxpayers bail out Natwest, so huge debt.

Question 21

How do leadership, image and tactical voting determine voting behaviour?

Answer 21

Leadership- voters often take the view they’re selecting a PM rather than voting for a party/MP so leaders must convince voters that they can be trusted to deliver and are capable of running the country. Eg. Margaret Thatcher was the longest serving PM (11 years) from 1979-1990 and led Britain to victory in the Faulklands War, nickname was the Iron Lady, pragmatic views and wanted to lower taxes.
Image- Voters will make a choice based on their perception of the party’s image, which is connected to issue voting. Eg. In 1997, Labour had an image change to New Labour (mid to late 1990s-2000s) under Blair and Brown, newly reformed party that had altered Clause IV (less socialist) and endorsed market economy (meritocracy) as Old Labour had workers’ rights and pro nationalisation.
Tactical voting- Because of FPTP, many voters use this to determine their choice. If their preferred candidate is unlikely to win the seat, they vote for their next favoured candidate if they have a higher chance of success. Eg. In 2015, LibDem voters abandoned the party as they thought it had no chance of winning a seat so they did strategic voting as they didn’t want to waste their vote. This was caused by the AV referendum as it didn’t go well and as they failed to scrap uni tuition fees.

Question 22

Who were the PMs in 1983, 1997, 2010 and 2019?

Answer 22

1983- Margaret Thatcher
1997- Tony Blair
2010- David Cameron
2019- Boris Johnson

Question 23

What are the 4 roles of the party leader?

Answer 23

1) Inspire the party activists
2) Appear prime ministerial
3) Have a positive media presence
4) Appear strong in leading the party and nation

Question 24

What is spatial leadership?

Answer 24

A style of leadership where the PM relies on his/her own inner circle of advisers, rather than cabinet.

Question 25

What happened to voter turnout in 2001 and 2005?

Answer 25

It reached a low at 60% then 62%.

Question 25

What was turnout in 2019?

Answer 25

68%

Question 25

What is apathy?

Answer 25

A lack of interest among voters in elections.

Question 26

What is hapathy?

Answer 26

People are generally contented and see no need to push for political change.

Question 26

What are the turnouts of the 2001/2005 and 2010 elections?

Answer 26

2001/2005- Blair was distressed and leading an increasingly fractious Labour Party, Conservatives remained deeply divided over Europe, replaced Iain Duncan Smith with Michael Howard

2010- More competitive election conflict so 4% jump in turnout. Choice between Gordon Brown and unpopular and divided Tories.

Question 27

What are the turnouts of the 2017 and 2019 elections?

Answer 27

2017- turnout fears persisted over competence of May and Corbyn. Increased turnout because of issues over Brexit and social care and welfare concerns.

2019- turnout fell back slightly, maybe as Tory victory seen as inevitable

Question 28

What are 4 theories to explain declining turnout with reasons to question them?

Answer 28

-Declining standards in education means people are less aware of their civic responsibilities
-Citizenship lessons mean citizens are better educated than ever before

-Partisan dealignment means people are less motivated to vote
-Party loyalty may have declined, but people still engage through pressure groups and campaigns, yet they do not vote in elections

-The growth in issues and parties has made elections less clear-cut and more difficult to understand
-People tend to cast their vote on the 1 or 2 issues that mean the most to them, so the fact that there are more issues isn’t relevant

-A decline in social capital means that people are less likely to feel part of society
-There’s been a growth in rights culture and media engagement

-Since the resignation of Thatcher in 1990, the Conservative and Labour parties have reached a consensus on several key issues. This post-Thatcher consensus has meant there is less real choice between the main parties.
-Labour shifted further to the left under Brown, Miliband and Corbyn so clearer distinction between 2 parties

-Sleaze and a negative culture spread by the media have turned people away from politics
-Scandals and sleaze have both existed in politics for many years. Turnout was not damaged by the scandal of the Profumo affair in the 1960s and was still at 71.4% in 1997, after five years of sleaze reporting

-A rise in minority ethnic citizens, who are less likely to vote, might explain a decline in turnout
-There has been an increase in the number of minority ethnic citizens in the UK, but the increase began as far back as the 1950s and does not explain the scale of the fall in turnout since 1992

-FPTP electoral system alienates the electorate because the number of seats won does not accurately reflect the number of votes received by the party
-An alternative voting system was rejected in a referendum vote in 2011 and turnout is even lower in UK elections which use other voting systems

Question 29

What are reasons for and against politicians being to blame for declining turnout?

Answer 29

For- they can maintain party discipline
Against- other factors like major events that have affected public opinion are more important

Question 30

What was the background, key policies, the campaign, impact and how did people vote in the 1979 election?

Answer 30

Background:
Harold Wilson’s narrow victory in Oct 1974 saw Labour’s majority disappear, leader replaced by James Callaghan. By 1979 vote of no confidence triggered an early election with key issues of how the economic deadline of the UK would affect the vote, the impact of growing trade union strikes on the result and whether the New Right policies would alienate voters.

Key Policies:
Labour focused on its ability to deal with trade unions and the experience of James Callaghan. It adopted a moderate financial course and kept the left silent. Conservatives focused on ‘Labour isn’t working’ and insisted that Britain could be better. It proposed the ‘right to buy’ scheme in housing and promised tax cuts.

The campaign:
The mass media played a prominent role as press conferences were timed to provide stories for the midday news and major speeches were timed to catch the evening news. Polls showed the public didn’t like an adversial model of politics, so the leaders of the 2 main parties avoided making attacks on each other. However, the campaign was very presidential with most broadcast media focused on the personalities of the two main leaders. The ‘Thatcher factor’- whether her gender and personality would cause voter resentment under prolonged exposure. Potential voters were put off from voting for Conservatives and party lost some of its lead in polls. She was considered condescending and less experienced compared to Callaghan. Both parties deliberately kept radical wings silent and had a low-key campaign so little real distinction.

Impact:
Conservatives won with 43.9% of vote share and 339 seats. 44 SEAT MAJORITY. Labour won 37% of vote share with 269 seats. Liberals won 11 seats then Plaid Cymru and SNP won 2 seats each. Both parties fought for the middle ground so no effective choice and dull campaign.Tories won C2 class vote because of right to buy and tax cuts popularity but most votes didn’t favour tax cuts at the expense of cuts to public spending. Followed Winter of Discontent with undisputed strike action from 1978-79. Opinion polls played a huge role in the outcome- closing gap between 2 parties encouraged Labour supporters, and helped boost turnout for Conservatives with also increasing concern about their policies. By focusing heavily on 2 leaders, 1979 sets trend for future general elections to be judged as presidential- style contests rather than a test between 2 parties

How did people vote?:
All areas swung towards Tories but South held more Conservative votes. People in classes A,B and C1 voted more Conservatives, Labour won the C2, D and E vote. Men were evenly split between the 2 main parties, women showed a slight preference towards Conservatives. Labour won 18-24 year age group, but Conservatives won across all other age groups. Labour’s support declined most among voters aged 35-54. The majority of Liberal support came from the 35-54 age group. Limited data for ethnic minority groups voting here as they were under 5% of the population and not considered by parties or polling organisations.

Question 31

What was the background, key policies, the campaign, impact and how did people vote in the 1997 election?

Answer 31

Background:
John Major surprise victory in 1992, Conservatives became intensely divided by issue of EU (use Euro or pound). Labour party had a new leader John Smith in 1992 but died in office in 1994. Replaced by Blair who shifted Labour to the right and rebranded itself as New Labour to distance itself with negative association some votes had with Labour from 1970s. Key issue of how tension over Europe would affect Tory voters.

Key policies:
-Leading Tories wanted to focus on economic recovery, but EU issue dominated campaign. Left Labour free to present its ‘Third Way’ economic policy. Labour focused on 5 main pledges of cutting class sizes in schools, introducing a fast track punishment system for young offenders, cutting NHS waiting lists, getting 250,000 unemployed under 25 year olds into work and cutting VAT on heating and not raising income tax
Labour promised to promote decentralisation and make the UK more democratic (NI peace process and devolution) but Conservatives said this would be a disaster, ‘72 hours to save the Union’ when 3 days left of campaign

The campaign:
6 weeks (31 day average), Major hoped it would put pressure on Blair and expose divisions within Labour, ‘You can only be sure with the Tories’ manifesto, Labour’s manifesto was ‘Because Britain deserves better’, LibDems’ one was ‘Make the Difference’. Labour ran a strict campaign from Milk Media Centre. Tories highlighted dangers of Blair and Labour restoring power and influence to trade unions. Sleaze referred to sex scandals and financial corruption of Tories. Saw an enormous leap in disciplined, media-focused electioneering and more confrontational US-style of campaigning.

Impact:
Negative campaign drew high levels of cynicism towards politicians of all parties after years of sleaze, turning point for British politics. People saw little difference between main parties on policies so rise in apathy. Opinion polls and campaign pointed to a Labour win. Election campaign did little to change result as financial recession of 1992 guaranteed Tories wouldn’t be returning to power.
Labour won a majority of 179 seats out of 418.

How did people vote?:
Location- Labour gained votes across all regions, back to trend of Tory south and Labour north.
Class- Labour gained support across all classes, largest gains in C1 as +19% and C2 with +15% groups.
Gender- Labour closed gender gap, men and women equally likely to support it. There were only minimal differences between gender votes for any party.
Age- Tories remained dominant among voters aged 65+, but Labour won decisively among all other age groups
Ethnicity- Labour won 43% of white vote, 70% of BAME vote, Tories won 32% of white vote and 18% of BAME vote, LibDems won 18% of white vote and 9% of BAME vote
THE SUN BACKS BLAIR

Question 32

What was the background, key policies, the campaign (with reference to leadership debates), impact and how did people vote in the 2010 election?

Answer 32

Background:
Gordon Brown inherited the office of PM in 2007, but decided against calling a snap election. Won in 2007 but 2008 saw greatest financial recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Key issues at the time were how damaging the recession would be to Labour, whether Cameron had done enough to detoxify the Tories, what role the first ever UK leaders’ debate would have in the campaign and what role UKIP and other minor parties would play in the elections.

Key policies:
The Conservatives focused on saving the NHS and on the need to save the economy through better management and efficiency savings. Labour focused on Brown’s economic management and action in preventing a worse economic collapse. The LibDems focused on striking a compromise between the 2 main parties.

The campaign:
Nick Clegg was hugely successful in the televised leaders’ debate and topped most winners’ polls, raised his personal profile and led to genuine three-party reporting across the press. Internet important as online reactions to debates, a clear web presence, online fundraising and independent viral campaigns. Social media made it harder for parties to control the message being reported in the traditional media. Traditional aspects of campaigning like ear;y-morning press conferences, launch initiatives, set-piece broadcast interviews. Conservatives spent 4x as much as Labour during campaign. Labour had to cut its spending by 2/3 from 2005 so less able to carry out polling and advertising. Instead it relied on a larger number of grassroot campaigns and committed activists. Media mainly backed Conservatives, only The Mirror and Sunday Mirror backed Labour.

Impact:
Multiparty political system. Conservatives had 307 seats (36.1% of vote) so they were 19 seats short of a majority. The Conservative-LibDem coalition had a majority of 78 seats. The campaign made LibDem support rise by 3-4% while Conservative support fell by 2-3%. This was enough to prevent the Conservatives from gaing a clear majority. Nick Clegg’s increased media presence meant he was seen as a credible deputy PM and that the LibDems were a viable party of government, leading to acceptance of the UK’s first peacetime coalition in 70 years.

How did people vote?:
Labour gained votes in Scotland, but lost them across England and Wales. Conservatives gained votes in southern England, mainly those lost in 1997.
Conservatives saw strong swings from C1 and C2 class categories. Labour gained a 10% swing from the DE category.
Men showed a slight preference for Conservatives. Women tended to favour Labour and LibDems.
Labour narrowly won 18-24 age group though support was evenly divided across 3 parties. Conservatives won all other age groups, most decisively with 65+.
Conservatives won 38% of white vote and 16% of BAME vote. Labour won 68% of BAME vote but only 28% of white vote. LibDem had 24% of white vote and 20% of BAME vote (most equal party).

Question 33

What was the background, key policies and the election campaign of the 2019 GE?

Answer 33

Background:
-Conservatives didn’t have a majority in 2017
-Theresa May tried to make Brexit deal with EU but failed and Boris Johnson had been made leader of Conservative party
-Labour was divided and many allegations of anti-semitism undermined Corbyn’s position as leader of Labour (supported Hamas)
-Splits in both of main parties

Key policies:
-Conservatives pledged to ‘Get Brexit Done’
-Labour proposed second referendum (opposite of Tories)
-Labour’s manifesto was very left-wing as they pledged to nationalise key industries while Conservatives found on Brexit, improving policing, education and healthcare services
-Both Conservative and Labour offered policies to strengthen women’s rights and protection

The election campaign:
‘Presidential’ election- focused more on leaders than party themselves, other members like Keir Starmer and Priti Patel were almost not there
Media and the election- lots of funding led to lots of adverts on social platforms like Facebook where LibDems had 3000 FB ads. But issue with non-party organisations advertising this election, eg. Capitalist Worker (anti-Labour)
Collapse of the centre- Brexit popular discussion, wanted it to be done, collapse of the ‘red wall’ suggests many were willing to go to more extreme parties to get their issue solved (issue voting), lots of Labour safe seats

Question 34

What were the results analysed of the 2019 GE?

Answer 34

Breaching of the ‘red wall’:
Conservatives remained strong in rural areas and in Labour stronghold seats they’d claimed in 2017 over issues of Brexit, aka breaching of the ‘red wall’

Political participation:
Conservatives won election with 80 seats majority, but result since 1987, first time since 2005 that a single party has won an election with a decisive majority. The majority could’ve been stronger but there were split votes with the Brexit party in many constituencies.

FPTP:
LibDems’ vote share increased by 4%, they lost one seat in the election which was leader Jo Swinson’s seat. There was therefore another leadership contest where Ed Davey and Sai Brinton became joint leaders.

The party system:
Labour entered leadership contest as this was the second consecutive GE Corbyn lost and Labour saw their worst performance since 1983 (‘suicide note’). Sir Keir Starmer became party leader in April 2020.

Opinion polls:
SNP won back 2017 losses from Tories and first time that Northern Ireland wasn’t won by unionist parties.

Age, gender, class etc:
Age- younger voters still favoured Labour, older voters favoured Tories. Turnout fell across all age categories except 65+ but 18-24 dropped the most
Class- Tories won across all class groups but most among C1, AB voters most likely to vote third party
Gender- overall 6 point gender gap. Tories won both genders equally. Young women dramatically support Labour but evened out by 35+ is non-existent by 55+
Location- Tories strong in rural areas and Labour heartlands but made losses in Scotland. Labour were strong in London and other big cities. SNP made grounds in Scotland and LibDems often came 2nd in South Western seats.

Question 35

What were the post-election prospects and results from the 2019 GE?

Answer 35

Conservative success in winning majority so Britain set to leave the EU in January 2020. Keeping the triple lock by increasing state pension. Wanted to increase the number of nurses by 50000- included foreign recruitment and better staff retention policies. Tories promised to reach net zero by 2050- want to cut emissions to nearly 0. Create 250,000 more childcare places- £250 million per year for 3 years for children to go during the holidays. Also wanted to get High Speed Two complete.

Conservatives- 365 seats, +47 win, 43.6% of votes
Labour- 205 seats, -59 loss, 32.2% of votes
LibDems- 11 seats, -1 loss, 11.5% of votes

Question 36

What were the 5 reasons why Labour’s win was so big in the 1997 GE?

Answer 36

Policy and Clause IV:
More centrists position politically to appeal to a wider range of voters. ‘Old Clause IV’- ‘common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange’
‘New Clause IV’- democratic socialist party
Old= nationalisation of key industries changed to new commitment to a community where power and wealth is shared, de-radicalisation

Leaders:
Modernisation accompanied by new charismatic leader Blair in 1994. He was only 44 in 1997, whereas John Major was more traditional.
Labour’s electoral campaign revolved around Blair, eg. posters with Blair’s sleeves rolled up to reflect a more casual approach to politics he embraced, alongside Labour’s slogan ‘Britain deserves better’. He successfully represented the new, modern Britain he was trying to appeal to.

Valence issues:
Voting based on valence (how competitive a party is perceived as being) was a big reason why Labour failed to win previous elections where Tories were seen as safer. Then Tories spent 5 years arguing over membership of EU, Major government had constant infighting between different cabinet members from 1992-97 (Major called MPs ‘bastards’) so less competence. Economic crisis of ‘Black Wednesday’ as Major had to take UK out of ERM in 1992, caused the value of the pound to fall significantly. Also reduced Conservatives’ reputation as party to trust with the economy. Fundamental in letting Labour present itself as modern and centrist party to be trusted.

Socio-economic factors:
1) British middle class progressively grown at expense of working class since WW2, which Labour traditionally relied on for votes so now had to change to win elections
2) Decrease in partisanship. Swing voters (change votes from election to election) increased by 1997. Class was no longer a key factor in determining how the electorate voted. BUT Tories still had a lead among middle-class voters. It was a lot smaller but showed increased appeal of Labour as vote share increased around the same amount across all classes, so victory from national appeal. 1997 GE: Conservative- 39% of A.B and C1 (middle class), 27% of C2 (skilled working class) and 21% of DE.
Labour- 34% of ABC1, 50% of C2 and 59% of DE

Conclusions:
1997 GE ended 18 years of Conservative government, began 13 years of Labour rule. Modernisation under Blair increased Labour appeal. Tory advantage of economic stability gone which showed Blair and rise of New Labour to capitalise and achieve election victory.

Question 37

What are the gender statistics from the Ipsos Mori 2019 electoral trends, what patterns can you find over time and how important is gender in determining voting patterns?

Answer 37

Data based on 27,521 votes

Gender:
Conservative- men 46%, female 43%
Labour- men 31%, female 34%
LibDem- men 12%, female 12%

Men are more likely to turn up to vote than women. More men vote Labour due to trade unions, from 1974-2001. From 2001, the gap opens up again for Labour which leads to partisan dealignment.

Gender isn’t very important as there isn’t a big difference.

Question 38

What are the class statistics from the Ipsos Mori 2019 electoral trends, what patterns can you find over time and how important is class in determining voting patterns?

Answer 38

C2 has 47% votes for Conservatives (unusual), 32% for Labour, 9% for LibDems
AB has 45% for Conservatives, 30% for Labour, 16% for LibDems
C1 has 45% for Conservatives, 32% for Labour and 12% for LibDems
DE has 41% for Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 9% for LibDems

There’s a massive difference in voting between classes from 1992, slowly decreased over time. From 2017, Brexit lowered the class divide significantly (issue voting), so there was a very small gap in 2019.

Class has gotten less important in determining voting patterns.

Question 39

What are the age statistics from the Ipsos Mori 2019 electoral trends, what patterns can you find over time and how important is age in determining voting patterns?

Answer 39

18-24 year olds- 62% for Labour, 19% for Conservatives and 9% for LibDems, 47% turnout
65+- 17% for Labour, 64% for Conservatives and 11% for LibDems, 74% turnout

As you get older, people are more likely to vote Conservative and less likely to vote Labour. The gap has increased a lot and started to matter more in 2017, big gap in 2019.

Age is very important as it has the biggest gaps.

Question 40

What are the qualifications and home ownership (tenure) statistics from the Ipsos Mori 2019 electoral trends and how important are they in determining voting patterns?

Answer 40

Qualifications:
No qualifications- 59% Conservatives, 23% Labour and 7% LibDem
Other qualifications- 47% Conservatives, 33% Labour and 10% LibDems
Degree or higher- 34% Conservatives, 39% Labour and 17% LibDems
The gap gets bigger for no qualifications.
Educational qualifications are quite important in determining voting patterns.

Home ownership:
Owned- 57% Conservatives, 22% Labour, 12% LibDems
Mortgage- 43% Conservatives, 33% Labour, 14% LibDems
Social renter- 33% Conservatives, 45% Labour and 7% LibDems
Private renter- 31% Conservatives, 46% Labour and 11% LibDem
Very important.

Question 41

What are the ethnicity and Brexit (voting by referendum vote) and how important are they in determining voting patterns?

Answer 41

Ethnicity:
White- 48% Conservatives, 29% Labour and 12% LibDem
BAME- 20% Conservatives, 64% Labour and 12% LibDem
Very important as there’s a big gap with Labour and Conservatives.

Brexit:
Remain- 20% Conservatives, 48% Labour and 21% LibDems
Leave- 73% Conservatives, 15% Labour and 3% LibDems
Very important as there are big differences.

Question 42

To what extent is class the most important in determining the outcome of GEs?

Answer 42

For- A,B, C1 are all core voters for Conservatives. C2, D, E support Labour. Eg. 1971 GE

Against- party dealignment
eg. in 2019, Labour won 33% of votes across the board, Conservatives had 43% of A,B and C1 voters and 48% of C2, D, E voters but it evened out over time

Question 43

To what extent is class the most important in determining the outcome of GEs?

Answer 43

For- A,B, C1 were the core voters for Conservatives, C2, D and E support Labour. Eg. 1971 GE

Against- party dealignment, eg. 2019, Labour 33% across the board, Conservative- 43%
A, B, C1- 48%. It evened out over time

2/10 importance

Question 44

To what extent is age the most important in determining the outcome of GEs?

Answer 44

For- 62% of 18-24 year olds vote for Labour. 64% of 65+ vote Conservative. 7% of 18-24 year olds, 47% of 65+, 74% leads to Labour disadvantage

Against- voters feel they’re left behind so even if they’re left economically they’re culturally right wing

Importance 9/10

Question 45

To what extent is ethnicity the most important in determining the outcome of GEs?

Answer 45

For- more likely to vote Labour if they’re immigrants because of racism from Tories and industrial areas, 1997: 70% BAME voters for Labour

Against- lack of data for other GEs so no proof

Importance 6/10

Question 46

To what extent is region the most important in determining the outcome of GEs?

Answer 46

For- industrial and city areas vote Labour and rural areas vote Conservatives, Scotland vote for SNP

Against- crumbling of Red Wall in 2017 and 2019 GEs, northern Labour heartlands taken by Conservatives. Before SNP, Scotland traditionally Labour but it’s a third party

Importance 7/10

Question 47

What is the media and its role in politics?

Answer 47

-Parties with the biggest readerships favour Conservatives (older)- The Sun had 1,787,096 readers in 2016, Daily Mail had 1,589,471, The Guardian only had 164,163 (younger audience)
-Circulation of newspaper readers is decreasing, less influence, eg. The Sun had 3.9m readers in 1997, 3m in 2010 then 1.8m in 2016, for Daily Mirror (Labour) had 2.4m in 1997, 1.2m in 2010 then 809k in 2016
-79% of the Telegraph’s readers voted Conservative in 2017 GE
-In 1997 the Sun backed Blair (52% of readers voted Labour compared to 30% in 2017)
-The Times and Financial Times have the highest % of LibDems, both had 14% vote for LibDems as audience is more educated to support outside 2 main parties, more centrist
-Mail Online was the second highest newsbrand in the UK in 2023 after BBC, right wing, audience of 23.0m, shows younger people do engage with the news but online
-A TV form of media only came in 7th with Sky News, 18m audience (right)

Question 48

What are the 4 forms of media?

Answer 48

-Print media:
Broadsheet newspapers- weighty political debates and present information, eg. Daily Telegraph and Guardian
Tabloids- populist newspapers which focus more on sensation and entertainment, eg. Mirror and Daily Mail
Magazines- provide an important check on politicians by reviewing their actions and policies

-Radio Media:
News headlines- every radio station is obliged to give regular news broadcasts, usually on the hour, which include simple, informative and impartial headlines covering the main news items of the day
Commercial radio- talk radio stations engage in political discussions and debate, eg. LBC
BBC radio- many platforms for political discussion with flagship political programmes (interview and challenge politicians)

-TV Media:
News broadcasts- all terrestrial channels are obliged to regular and impartial news broadcasts, occur at set times and for a set duration
Party political broadcasts- parties are allocated 5 minute broadcast slots. Street regulations ensure all parties are given a fair and equal chance to influence public opinion
News channels- 24-hour news coverage, more public awareness
Political programming- covers televised leaders’ debates, interviews with politicians and key experts, debate, Q+A for public

-Online Media:
Opinion polls- online polls (cheaper and more frequent)
Blogs- information and a forum for more in depth discussion about political issues
Twitter- informal poll to assess popularity of an issue/ performance of individuals politicians. Forum for political debate.
Campaigning- social media and viral videos etc. to test ideas and messages before committing to traditional media, targeted advertising OR unregulated campaigning and fake news.
Websites- public find out more about policies, raise issues and donate to party
Research/ data- parties pay political consulting firms for data about voters to help target messages
‘Leave’ used FB to sway voters (older people). 2,500 FB ads in 2019- Tories, Labour- 250, LibDems- 3000 FB ads

Question 49

What are the 4 changing roles of the media?

Answer 49

-Report accurately on political events
-Provide a commentary on political events and policies
-Act as a check on and scrutinise government
-Investigate controversies and bring them to attention

-Educate the public on major issues and explain the potential impact of the various options available
-Provide a forum for public debate and discussion

-2015: televised leaders’ debate
-News broadcasts- allocated 5 minute broadcast slots
-News channels- 24 hour news coverage which can drive political events by raising awareness
-Political programming- televised leaders debates, extended interviews

-2019: digital advertising
-Opinion polls- conducted with greater frequency and are cheaper to run than traditional polls
-Campaigns- viral videos, social media, etc.
-Websites- parties and politicians have their own websites which provide a means for the public to find out more about parties
-Podcasts- replacing radio. ‘The rest is politics’
2017- Theresa May didn’t show up, neither did Boris Johnson in 2019 because TV debates weren’t worth their time

Question 50

What are campaign posters?

Answer 50

1979- ‘Labour isn’t working’ from winter of Discontent so Callaghan loses to Thatcher
1997- ‘New Labour, New Danger’ which led to branding Blair as evil and manipulative but it didn’t work as Blair still won
2001- ‘Be afraid very afraid’, plastered William Hague’s force onto Thatcher- Thatcher 2.0

Question 51

What was social media in 2017?

Answer 51

Study of 1711 people over 2019 GE
-18-34 year olds spent 8 minutes average on news websites
-35-65 year olds spent 22 minutes average, and also consumed more radio, print etc.
-72% accessed at least website, 16 minutes average read, but only 3% of internet activity
-BBC and Mail Online accounts for half of all time spent on news sites
-Proportionally, most were impartial (33%) or endorsed Tories (31%)

Question 52

What was the 2019 campaign video?

Answer 52

Conservatives spent the most on Facebook adverts. The top 8 ads were from Conservatives, totalling 3.5m views. Labour’s most viewed ad was 9th, LibDems’ was 21st and Brexit’s was 29th. Labour chose tweeting over FB videos.

Question 53

What are the 4 media models?

Answer 53

-Pluralist model- represents a balance of opinion- neutral ‘matchdog’, eg. BBC, however may fail to cover excluded groups, eg. LibDems, Reform

-Dominant idealogy model- politically Conservative force, aligned to social elites, eg. the Sun, promotes a passive public- denies free choice

-Elite-values model- media’s bias reflects middle class characteristics of employees like the Guardian, left-liberal ideas? overstated?

-Market model- reflects rather than shapes public opinion, people choose what they want, eg. the Sun in 1997, assumption our market is neutral

Question 54

What roles has the media played between elections?

Answer 54

War reporting- the patriotic reporting of the Falklands War in 1982 helped to bolster the impression of Thatcher as the ‘Iron Lady’ and to swing public opinion towards war

Sleaze- During the 1992 Parliament, the media reported on a number of sex and corruption scandals related to members of the Conservative party, Cash for Questions and gay. The Tories became known as the ‘party of sleaze’ and ‘nasty party’. Many felt that they had abused their time in power. This helped Blair win. 1997 campaign- ‘things can only get better’

‘Blair’- Upon publication of the government’s Iraq Dossier in 2003, members of the press, including the BBC and Channel 4, found evidence of misinformation, plagiarism and the government ‘sexing up’ the case for war in Iraq. Said they had weapons of mass destruction and they didn’t.

Satire- The rise in political satire since the 1960s has coincided with a decline in reputation of politicians. Stage shows like ‘Beyond the Fringe’ presented mocking impressions of PM Harold MacMillan and TV shows caused undermined prestige of politicians. TV shows like ‘Have I Got News For you’ were parodies and scrutinies of MPs.
Politicians themselves have tried to engage with it, many appear on reality shows, eg. Nigel Farage on I’m A Celeb!! Others capitalise on appeal of social media, eg. Ed Miliband interviewsed by Russel Brand on his YouTube channel ‘The Trews’. BUT caused loss of credibility and mocked on traditional media programmes. Social media has limited success for politicians hoping to increase electoral support.

Expenses- In 2009, the Daily Telegraph used a freedom of information request to obtain records of MPs’ expenses. The revealed details of wrongful claims and outright abuses by MPs and peers, including a £1,645 claim for a duck house in a garden. This fed the growing public mood of cynicism and distrust for politicians.

The EU- Members of the EU tended to rank fairly low down the list of priorities in voter surveys. But the media brought the issue to fore of British politics. Then successfully linked issue of EU membership to immigration (concern that ranked highly with many voters). UKIP mounted pressure on Tories to hold an in/out referendum, campaign strategy

Covid-19 and the accusation of sleaze- Media led scrutiny of politicians during Covid. In 2021, the press heaped pressure on health minister Matt Hancock to resign when he was caught breaking his own social distancing regulations by conducting an affair with an aide in his office. Partygate scandal.