Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
What are the pros of public opinion polls?
-sample can be representative and robust
-makes people feel like their voices are heard
What are the cons of public opinion polls?
-Difficult to track
-Isn’t always right
-Interviewer bias
-Push poll
How important is regional voting in voting behaviour?
Quite important
Scotland- traditionally Labour but SNP dominance now, since 2015 main opposition were Tories, specific social and economic problems in Scotland bc of devolution and Brexit so they want centred policies and New Right policies (opposed to London)
Wales- Heavy Labour bias (favoured by industrial areas) but strong Tory support in rural areas and for LibDems, far West likely to vote nationalist (Plaid Cymru)
Northern Ireland- Has its own party system with split between unionist (Sinn Fein) and nationalist (DUP) parties, party votes reflect religious and cultural divisions in NI, 2019 showed shift towards nationalist parties
London- majority vote Labour, increasing ethnic diversity, more socially liberal than other regions
Industrial north of England- Mostly Labour bc higher levels of unemployment, more poverty, urban decay and ethnic diversity, until 2019 when the ‘red wall’ collapsed so turned Tory in many areas bc of anti-EU/nationalistic feelings
Home counties- mostly Conservative, London commute belt, mostly white, economically prosperous
How important is class in voting behaviour?
(2019 GE data)
Not important
Core voters for Tories- classes A,B and some C1
Core voters for Labour- C2,D and E (working class)
2019 GE data:
ABC1- 33% Labour, 43% Tory
C2DE- 33% Labour, 48% Tory
Green vote strongest among AB classes
Labour’s vote share decreased by 7-9% among all classes since 2017
Conservative vote shares went up in C2 and DE classes
What is partisan dealignment?
The idea that people are less committed to one particular party, and will take into consideration multiple issues before casting their vote.
What are floating (swing) voters?
Voters who aren’t loyal to a party so open to persuasion.
How important is gender in voting behaviour?
(2017 and 2019 GE data)
Not very important
All parties make a concerted effort to target women, eg. in 2019 the Tories made a policy to address gender inequality and tackle issues of domestic violence
2017- Labour committed to conducting a gender impact assessment on all legislation and policies
2014- LibDems Jo Swinson’s campaign to push for equal pay and childcare supervision
Women preferred Tories bc of 1970 election- Ted Heath promised economic stability and protection for the price of weekly shop which appealed to women (mothers)
But, this changed in 1997 under Blair as he introduced women only shortlists to increase no. of women in Parliament
2017 GE data- 6% advantage to Tories among men, women were equally split between 2 main parties
2019 GE data- Tories won 15% more of male vote and 9% more of female vote than Labour
How important is age in voting behaviour?
Very important
Younger voters- 56% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour in 2019, 52% turnout
Older voters- 67% of 70+ voters voted Tory in 2019, 82% turnout
Conservatives- appeal to elderly through NHS, pensions, Law and Order, eg. triple lock pensions
Labour- appeal to younger people through policies about uni fees, youth unemployment and housing for young people
What age do people change over from being Labour supporters to Conservative voters?
39
Who are ‘left behind’ voters?
A group of people who feel left behind by economic and social reforms- they believe lives have changed for the worse. Tend to be economically left but culturally right, eg. older, white. financially poorer, less educated
How important is ethnicity in voting behaviour?
Very important
2019- white people made up 48% of Tory vote and 29% of Labour vote, ethnic minorities made up 20% of Tory vote and 64% of Labour vote.
Minority ethnic voters favour Labour bc:
-Enoch Powell- members of Tory party expressed anti-minority views, eg. Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech (1968), where he criticised the Labour gov’s immigration and anti-discrimination legislation, Boris Johnson used racially offensive language before he was PM, said women in burkas look like ‘letterboxes’ which alienates minority groups
-Living location as they mainly live in industrial urban centres like London, Birmingham and Manchester, initally offered unskilled working-class jobs that put them into the C2 category, benefited from Labour’s policies of social equality
Minority ethnic groups less likely to vote in elections than white groups. In 2019 GE, their turnout was 52%, while 63% turnout for white groups, 87.1% of British population is white, Labour doesn’t have an advantage
What is rational choice theory?
Assumes that voters will make a rational judgement based on what is in their own interests. Voters would ideally be fully informed about various options and will choose the best option. The assumption is that a voter will conduct a cost/benefit analysis of all options and make a choice accordingly.
What is issue or salient voting?
Voters place one issue above all others and cast their vote based on that issue. They judge a party/candidate by their position on that issue and choose the one that most closely reflects their opinion. They can vote for a candidate whose other policies would be to their detriment.
What are economic or valence issues?
A valence issue is one where voters make a judgement based on performance and who’s best able to deliver a desired outcome, usually centred on management of the economy. Voters cast their vote based on who will best deliver a strong and successful economy.
What is governing competency?
Politicians will be rewarded if they deliver a strong economy but punished at the polls if the economy fails. The perceived ability of the government, or opposition, to manage the affairs of the country well.
