Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
In which two years of the 1990s did the UK have a general election?
1992 and 1997
Which five non-political factors characteristics typically affect individual electors’ voting behaviour?
Age, class, ethnicity, gender and region
What name is given to the process by which individuals no longer regard themselves as belonging to a social class and therefore this no longer influences their voting behaviour?
Class dealignment
What percentage of votes from ‘AB’ socio-economic class voters (higher, managerial and professional occupations) did the Conservative Party take in the general elections of 1964 and 2019?
78% in 1964 and 45% in 2019
What percentage of votes from ‘DE’ socio-economic class voters (semi-skilled and unskilled occupations) did the Labour Party take in the general elections of 1964 and 2019?
64% in 1964 and 39% in 2019 (a big drop from 59% in 2017)
What is meant by the term ‘partisan dealignment’?
Individuals no longer identify themselves on a long-term basis by association with a certain political party
What three major factors have contributed to partisan dealignment?
Increased access to education, greater impact of the media and ideological shift by the parties
One of the main consequences of partisan dealignment has been increased volatility in elections, what is the other?
Rise of minor parties
What key piece of information does the National Readership Survey use when deciding what class people belong to?
Occupation
What name is give to someone who studies elections and voting behaviour?
Psephologist
What major change in the structure of the UK economy has contributed to a change in the UK’s class structure and class dealignment?
Shift from heavy industry and manual labour to service sector (deindustrialisation)
Which single word describes the process by which a working-class person adopts middle-class values as a result of increased income or wealth?
Embourgeoisement
Which single issue is likely to be the biggest issue in increased class dealignment in UK politics since the 2015 general election?
Brexit
What factor do psephologists believes have largely replaced class as a major factor in determining the outcomes of elections?
Education
In the 2019 UK general election, which party took 55% of the votes from electors whose highest qualification is a GCSE or lower?
Conservative Party
What percentage of electors with a university degree voted Labour in the 2019 general election?
49%
What does is mean if it is said that education tends to have a ‘liberalising effect’?
It makes recipients more accepting, tolerant and believe more strongly in equality.
Which UK general election was the first in which more women voted Labour than Conservative?
1997
Why might UK political parties be more likely to tailor policies to attract women voters in an election than men?
Historically turnout has been higher amongst women
At what age is the average voter equally likely to vote Conservative or Labour?
39
True or false: For every ten years older a UK voter is, the probability of them voting Conservative increases (on average) by 9 percentage points?
This is true
Give two economic reasons why older voters are more likely to vote Conservative.
Higher incomes (more likely to have been promoted), increased home ownership or higher job security
Conservative views and policies on which issue are a major reason why BAME voters have tended to favour Labour in elections?
Immigration
Labour governments from 1997-2010 passed landmark legislation to prevent what, thus making them more attractive to BAME voters?
Discrimination
BAME voters may also be more likely to vote Labour due to what other factors?
Social class, income, education and occupation
Which scandal of 2018-19, centred on the Home Office, may deter BAME voters from voting Conservative in the future?
Windrush (the deportation of long-settled Commonwealth migrants unable to prove their immigration status)
Although challenged by some results in 2019, what name has been given to the swathe of Labour-stronghold constituencies across the North of England and Midlands?
Red wall
In which part of the UK has the Labour party seen the greatest fall in the proportion of seats won in recent general elections?
Scotland
In which two parts of England do the Liberal Democrats tend to perform best in general elections?
London and the South-West
Which party won more than half of the 40 seats in Wales at the 2019 general election?
Labour (22)
How many of the 59 Scottish seats were won by the Scottish National Party in the 2019 general election?
48
Some people argue that region is not a major indicator of voting behaviour because it overlaps heavily with what other factors?
Income/wealth/property ownership and class
Typically what two issues do voters regard as the most important in general elections?
The economy and the NHS
What was the most important single issue in voting behaviour during the 2019 UK general election?
Brexit - the party/leader were most likely to secure the outcome they wanted.
Give an example of a Brexit-related Conservative Party slogan used during the 2019 UK general election?
Get Brexit done’ and ‘Oven-ready deal’.
What percentage of ‘Leave’ voters voted Conservative in the UK 2019 general election?
74%
Why did the high poroportion of “leave” voters supporting the Conservative Party translate into huge electoral success, even though less than 52% of the population supported Brexit in the referendum?
Remain’ voters were split (49% voted Labour but 21% voted Liberal Democrat)
What did 33% of those who voted “leave” in 2016 and Labour in the 2017 UK general election do in 2019?
Voted Conservative
Conservative “remain” supporters who voted for another party in the 2019 general election tended to support which party?
Liberal Democrat
Valence means voting for a party based on how BLANK and BLANK it seems.
[competent] [credible]
When does valence become more important for deciding elections?
When parties become more similar ideologically
Explain valence in the context of election promises.
The parties may make similar promises, but voters choose which party is more likely to deliver on that promise
In spite of the popularity of many of their policies, why did many voters not back Labour in the 2019 UK general election?
Under Jeremy Corbyn many voters did not see the Labour front bench as a credible government-in-waiting
Why did the Liberal Democrats’ main manifesto pledge in 2019 lack credibility for many voters?
They wanted to revoke Article 50 without a further referendum which many felt was undemocratic
What was the main reason why the Labour manifesto in 2019 lacked credibility?
It promised a significant increase in public spending while pledging that only those earning over 80k would pay more tax
Complete this political aphorism: ‘BLANK lose elections. BLANK do not win them.”
[Governments] [opposition parties]
How does the 1945 UK general election show that the role of the party leaders in deciding election outcomes has increased over time?
Attlee’s Labour Party won a landslide, in spite of the huge personal popularity of wartime PM Winston Churchill
In the context of an election, what are the five main roles of a party leader?
To inspire party activists, appear prime ministerial, have a positive media presence, appear strong in leading the party (and, if elected, the nation) and be trustworthy
Why do the media focus on the character and image of the party leader?
It is easier to report on a single person than a range of figures or policies
Which party leader polled well in 2010 but saw his party win five fewer seats (vs. 2005)?
Nick Clegg
What is the most obvious evidence that Margaret Thatcher was a successful party leader?
Won three general elections (1979, 1983 and 1987)
What is the most obvious evidence that Theresa May was not a successful party leader?
Forced to resign after failing to secure backing for her Brexit deal
35% of former Labour voters told pollsters that the Party leadership was the main reason they did not vote Labour again in 2019, what was the second biggest factor in voters’ decision (19%)?
Brexit
What is a manifesto?
A set of policies/promises that a party would pursue if elected to office
What key manifesto pledge did the Liberal Democrats break as part of the 2010-15 coalition government, undermining the electorate’s faith in them?
To scrap tuition fees (instead allowing them to rise)
How can an election campaign undermine valence?
If it is ill thought-out or full of blunders it can damage reputations and trustworthy the party is perceived to be
How were the contrasting campaigns important in the outcome of the 1992 UK general election?
Labour’s campaign was presidential(-ish) and perceived as arrogant with Kinnock (Labour leader) ridiculed in the press, while Major engaged with voters from his soapbox and was presented as a man of the people.
Which UK general election is a prime example of a strong campaign and improved electoral performance, even though the party did not make it to government?
2017 (Labour)
In spite of the reduction in their majority, what evidence is there that the Conservative campaign in 2017 was not so bad?
Their share of the popular vote actually increased from 2015
In what sense was Jeremy Corbyn on the receiving end of a campaign between 2017 and 2019?
The mainstream media branded him as an extreme socialist too irresponsible for government
Why can Labour’s 1997 campaign be regarded as unimportant to the outcome of the election?
Evidence suggests that they would have won the election anyway
How does the 2019 general election show that campaigns may not be central to the outcome of the election?
Boris Johnson made repeated blunders (e.g. hiding in a fridge) and was evasive, but Brexit was so salient that promises to achieve this were enough for the Conservatives to succeed
What is tactical voting?
When a voter votes for a party other than the one they would like to win, particularly when they know that their preferred candidate cannot realistically win
Why is it difficult to know how big of a factor tactical voting is in determining elections?
It is difficult to know ecactly how many people vote tactically
What prooprtion of the elctorate are believed to have voted tactically in the 2010 UK general election?
10%
What evidence is there that tactical voting in Scotland was ineffective in 2015?
Most tactical votes were cast against the SNP and yet the party enjoyed its greatest success
Which major UK political parties have endorsed tactical voting and in which election(s)?
It has never happened
How was the Labour Party damaged by its party image in the 1980s?
Too closely tied to the trade unions and out of touch with the electorate
How did Tony Blair end the Labour Party’s commitment to nationalisation?
Removed the old Clause IV from the Labour Party constitution
With which section of the electorate was Corbyn’s forward-thinking and considerate image of the Labour Party most popular?
Young voters
Which issue divided the Conservative Party in the 1990s and the Labour Party in 2019, costing both of them electorally?
Europe
What is the most likely cause of higher turnout in an election?
When the result is regarded as close and voters regard their vote as being more valuable
Turnout in general elections since 2005 has been on average
67%
Describe the trend regarding the number of voters that switch parties between elections.
Much higher now than in the 1970s/1980s due to partisan dealignment, but lower in 2019 than 2017 and 2015 (when it peaked at over 40%)
The two main roles of the media in an election are to BLANK the electorate and to make sure parties are held BLANK.
[inform] [accountable]
Which collective term refers to television and radio stations?
Broadcast media
What evidence is there from the 2010 election that the media may have limited influence on election outcomes?
The Liberal Democrats took a lower percentage of votes, in spite of Clegg’s performance in televised debates (“I agree with Nick”)
Which newspaper claimed a central role in the outcome of the 1992 UK general election after its relentless attacks on Neil Kinnock?
The Sun
How is the political reporting in a tabloid newspaper likely to differ from that in a broadsheet?
Less factual and less ‘highbrow’, likely to simplify issues and avoid weightier political themes
Does the reporting in broadsheet newspapers contain bias?
Yes, although it may be less obvious (for example in choosing which issues to cover in detail)
What major change in the allegiances of newspapers occurred in 1997?
The Sun (Britain’s best-selling newspaper) switched from backing the Conservatives to Labour (‘Give change a chance’)
Give one argument for and against the proposition that Facebook advertising had a significant impact on the 2019 UK general election.
Facebook Ad Library showed that at the start of December the Conservatives had 2,500 live paid-for advertisements compared to Labour’s 250 (but the Liberal Democrats had more still with 3,000)
What two things did Ed Milliband do during the televised leaders’ debate to undermine Labour’s election campaign in 2015?
Fell off the stage and said ‘Hell yes, I’m tough enough’, looking less prime ministerial.
What evidence is there that Milliband’s performance in the televised leadership debates in 2015 had little impact?
Opinion polls showed that it merely reinforced existing voting intentions
How might opinion polls affect voter turnout?
If the opinion polls show a close contest (or predicts defeat for a voter’s preferred candidate) it makes it more likely that an elector’s vote might be important, thus increasing the incentive to turn out and vote
How can opinion polls negatively affect democracy?
Polls can misrepresent public opinion and affect the way that people vote
Give four recent examples of inaccurate opinion polls.
2014 IndyRef, 2015 general election, 2016 Brexit referendum, 2017 general election and the scale of the Conservative victory in 2019
Explain why the 2015 general election is the strongest recent example of opinion polls influencing voting behaviour.
The polls suggested a hung parliament, with the SNP holding the balance of power and supporting a Labour government. The Conservatives were able to campaign against this and the polls underestimated the support for Conservative and overestimated Labour’s support
